本文選題：風(fēng)光儲聯(lián)合發(fā)電系統(tǒng) + 可信容量��； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：對可持續(xù)發(fā)展的訴求使得世界范圍內(nèi)對可再生新能源利用的研究不斷深入,隨著生產(chǎn)技術(shù)進步使其發(fā)電成本越來越低,越來越多可再生能源發(fā)電設(shè)備得以接入電力系統(tǒng)�？稍偕茉窗l(fā)電裝置既可以通過集中式接入電網(wǎng),也可以分布式電源形式接入電網(wǎng)。由于大量分布式電源直接通過電力電子設(shè)備接入電網(wǎng),會對電能質(zhì)量產(chǎn)生影響,而分布式電源以微電網(wǎng)形式接入電網(wǎng)可以有效避免這一問題,提高可再生能源的利用率,節(jié)能降損,在電網(wǎng)中應(yīng)用越來越廣泛。 由于新能源機組的出力隨著自然資源的波動而變化,傳統(tǒng)電源規(guī)劃方法難以計及這種不確定性,因此迫切需要找到一種有效的間歇性電源的選型、定容和評估方法。因此,本文研究了微電網(wǎng)中多種不同類型分布式電源聯(lián)合發(fā)電時的效益評估方法,以及典型微電網(wǎng)的電源優(yōu)化配置模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了基于等可信容量的電源優(yōu)化配置方法,并提出一種能夠計及時空特征的電源規(guī)劃評價指標(biāo)體系對規(guī)劃方案進行評價。 為了對評估間歇性電源的發(fā)電效益,本文研究了不同類型微電源的出力特性并建立了模型,給出單種微電源的可信容量定義及計算方法。建立了包含風(fēng)電、光伏發(fā)電的聯(lián)合出力概率模型,考慮儲能裝置的運行特性,提出一種風(fēng)光儲聯(lián)合發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的可信容量計算方法。針對計及風(fēng)電機組、光伏發(fā)電機組2種間歇性電源的隨機生產(chǎn)模擬,采用基于序貫蒙特卡洛的評估框架進行了仿真。在所提儲能控制策略的基礎(chǔ)上,評估了儲能容量配比、風(fēng)光裝機容量配比對聯(lián)合發(fā)電系統(tǒng)可信容量的影響以及風(fēng)光聯(lián)合發(fā)電時的互補效益,并進行了驗證。 為研究間歇性電源接入后電源規(guī)劃和傳統(tǒng)方法的不同,把電源規(guī)劃分為投資決策和生產(chǎn)模擬兩部分加以分析。針對兩種典型的微電網(wǎng)利用形式,海島型微電網(wǎng)和城區(qū)并網(wǎng)型微電網(wǎng)提出了的不同投資決策需求,分別建立了電源優(yōu)化的目標(biāo)函數(shù)和約束條件。為研究微電網(wǎng)的生產(chǎn)模擬過程,分析了多種不同類型分布式電源接入后的微電網(wǎng)運行時序特性,在考慮時序特性的基礎(chǔ)上,研究了微電網(wǎng)的隨機生產(chǎn)模擬方法。根據(jù)所提投資決策目標(biāo)和生產(chǎn)模擬方法,建立了基于時間序列預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)的微電網(wǎng)電源優(yōu)化模型,并選用自適應(yīng)粒子群算法進行求解。 在所提電源規(guī)劃模型中,采用基于概率密度的蒙特卡洛模擬方法對微電網(wǎng)的生產(chǎn)模擬過程進行改進,把確定性模型轉(zhuǎn)化為隨機-確定性耦合模型,并綜合計及自然資源的隨機波動和常規(guī)機組的隨機停運影響。在此基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合對風(fēng)光儲聯(lián)合發(fā)電系統(tǒng)可信容量的研究,本文提出一種基于等可信容量的含風(fēng)光儲的微電網(wǎng)電源規(guī)劃方法,按照滿足電力平衡的需求確定所需風(fēng)光儲發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的整體可信容量以及常規(guī)機組容量,通過蒙特卡羅仿真計算得到等可信容量所需的風(fēng)光儲機組組合,根據(jù)風(fēng)光儲容量優(yōu)化配置模型,從上述組合集合中選出使全生命周期總投資成本最小的風(fēng)、光、儲容量配置。 為了研究微電網(wǎng)的電源規(guī)劃在時空特征上的不確定性,以及時空特性對微電網(wǎng)綜合評價及最優(yōu)決策的影響,本文研究了一套能計及動態(tài)時空特征的微電網(wǎng)電源規(guī)劃評價方法,涵蓋了經(jīng)濟性指標(biāo)、可靠性指標(biāo)、效益指標(biāo)和環(huán)保指標(biāo)。首先在經(jīng)濟性指標(biāo)中加入時變參數(shù),建立隨機過程模型以描述微電網(wǎng)電源規(guī)劃項目的動態(tài)時空特性,包括未來投資機組成本和燃料價格隨時間的波動特性,然后提出多種間歇性電源聯(lián)合發(fā)電的互補效益指標(biāo)及能源價格風(fēng)險率指標(biāo),用于評價既定電源規(guī)劃方案由于未來時空特征的不確定性而帶來的可能的風(fēng)險損失。最后,本文分析了不同層次各因素之間的相互關(guān)系,引入層次分析法明確各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,對計及動態(tài)時空特征獨立微電網(wǎng)的不同電源規(guī)劃方案做出綜合評價。 最后,論文對所作的工作進行了總結(jié),并對本課題的發(fā)展趨勢進行了展望。
[Abstract]:The demand for sustainable development makes a worldwide research on the use of renewable energy. With the progress of production technology, the cost of generating electricity is becoming lower and lower, and more and more renewable energy generation equipment can be connected to the power system. Power supply is connected to the power grid. Because a large number of distributed power sources directly connect to the power grid through power electronic equipment, the power quality will have an impact on the power quality, and the distribution of distributed power in the form of micro grid can effectively avoid this problem, improve the utilization of renewable energy, save energy and reduce the loss, and use more and more widely in the power grid.
As the force of the new energy unit changes with the fluctuation of natural resources, the traditional power planning method is difficult to take into account of this uncertainty, so it is urgent to find an effective method of selection, capacity and evaluation of intermittent power supply. Therefore, this paper studies the benefits of combined power generation of various types of distributed power sources in the microgrid. The evaluation method, as well as the model of the optimal power configuration of the typical microgrid, has been put forward on the basis of the equal trusted capacity, and an evaluation index system of power planning evaluation which can take into account the temporal and spatial characteristics is proposed to evaluate the planning scheme.
In order to evaluate the power generation efficiency of intermittent power supply, this paper studies the output characteristics of different types of micro power supply and establishes a model, gives the definition and calculation method of the credible capacity of single micropower supply, and establishes a joint output probability model including wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Considering the running characteristics of the energy storage device, a kind of wind and solar energy storage union is proposed. According to the random production simulation of 2 intermittent power sources for wind turbines and photovoltaic generating sets, the simulation is carried out based on the sequential Monte Carlo evaluation framework. On the basis of the proposed energy storage control strategy, the ratio of energy storage capacity and the ratio of wind and wind capacity to the joint power generation system are evaluated. The influence of trusted capacity and the complementary benefits of wind and solar power generation are verified.
In order to study the difference between the power supply planning and the traditional methods of the intermittent power supply, the power planning is divided into two parts: investment decision and production simulation. In view of the two typical micro grid utilization forms, the different investment decision-making requirements of the island type microgrid and the urban grid type micro grid are put forward, and the aim of the power supply optimization is set up respectively. In order to study the production simulation process of microgrid, the time series characteristics of microgrid operation after various types of distributed power supply are analyzed. Based on the time series characteristics, the stochastic production simulation method of microgrid is studied. Based on the proposed investment decision target and production simulation method, the time series based on the proposed investment decision and the production simulation method are established. The power supply optimization model of the microgrid is derived from the sequence prediction data, and adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm is adopted to solve it.
In the proposed power planning model, the Monte Carlo simulation method based on probability density is used to improve the production simulation process of the microgrid, and the deterministic model is converted into a stochastic deterministic coupling model, and the random fluctuations of natural resources and the random outage of conventional units are taken into account. In the study of the trusted capacity of the power generation system, this paper proposes a power planning method based on the equitable capacity for wind and solar energy storage. According to the demand of the power balance, the whole credible capacity of the required solar energy storage system and the capacity of the conventional unit are determined. The wind required by the Mont card Luo Fangzhen calculation is obtained. The combination of light storage units, according to the optimal configuration model of wind and storage capacity, selects the wind, light, and storage capacity of the whole life cycle to minimize the total cost of the total life cycle.
In order to study the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal characteristics of the power planning of the microgrid and the influence of the spatio-temporal characteristics on the comprehensive evaluation and the optimal decision of the microgrid, this paper studies a set of evaluation methods for the power planning of the microgrid, which includes the economic index, the reliability index, the benefit index and the environmental protection index. The time-varying parameter is added to the economic index, and a stochastic process model is established to describe the dynamic temporal and spatial characteristics of the power planning project of the microgrid, including the cost of the future investment unit and the fluctuation of the fuel price with time. Then, the complementary efficiency index and the energy price risk rate index of the combined power generation of intermittent power supply are put forward, and the evaluation of the energy price risk rate is used for evaluation. The possible risk loss caused by uncertainty of the future spatio-temporal characteristics of the established power supply planning scheme. Finally, this paper analyzes the relationship between different levels and factors, and introduces the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the different power planning schemes for the dynamic space-time characteristic independent microgrid.
Finally, the work is summarized and the development trend of this subject is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM715

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