本文選題：電力系統(tǒng) + 輸電線路覆冰�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,受全球氣候變暖影響,各類氣象災(zāi)害更為頻繁,造成的損失和影響日趨嚴(yán)重,破壞程度強(qiáng)、影響范圍廣,應(yīng)對(duì)難度也越來越大。電力系統(tǒng)在規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)及運(yùn)行中如何應(yīng)對(duì)電網(wǎng)覆冰帶來的危害,成為一項(xiàng)非常重要又極具現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的研究課題。2008年中國南方雪災(zāi)后,許多科研院所、電力企業(yè)進(jìn)行了線路覆冰方面的研究,但僅局限于大區(qū)域典型氣象條件下的共性研究。山區(qū)微氣象條件下輸電線路覆冰設(shè)計(jì)的研究目前在國內(nèi)外均屬前沿課題,缺少相關(guān)的研究與應(yīng)用。本論文研究的出發(fā)點(diǎn)與落腳點(diǎn)均為浙江省臨安縣天池山區(qū)這一確定的微地理微氣象區(qū)域。首先研究了線路覆冰的形成機(jī)理和覆冰氣象地理特征條件,在基于溫度、風(fēng)(速度和方向)、降雨量、云中液態(tài)水和相對(duì)濕度等多種氣象因素下,提出了—種基本的覆冰模型。為準(zhǔn)確獲取臨安山區(qū)重點(diǎn)線路安裝的在線監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)與氣象站提供的氣象數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證了預(yù)測(cè)模型的科學(xué)性和精確性,從全局、地域、局部三個(gè)角度介紹了覆冰模型輸入?yún)?shù)測(cè)量方法。同時(shí)重點(diǎn)分析了輸電線路導(dǎo)線和結(jié)構(gòu)的覆冰荷載數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析與建模,為下一步的架空輸電線路設(shè)計(jì)和可靠性評(píng)估提供參考價(jià)值。應(yīng)用臨安地區(qū)輸電線路在線監(jiān)測(cè)設(shè)備保存的歷史,應(yīng)用模糊神經(jīng)元網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論方法建立天池山區(qū)覆冰預(yù)測(cè)模型。該模型的預(yù)測(cè)算法采用C語言開發(fā),利用電力線路覆冰影響深度系數(shù)公式,對(duì)微氣象參數(shù)影響因子由小到大進(jìn)行排序,通過對(duì)有效數(shù)據(jù)的篩選,從而確定了神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)輸入層的構(gòu)成分別是風(fēng)速、風(fēng)向、環(huán)境氣溫、環(huán)境濕度,使神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)訓(xùn)練的數(shù)據(jù)更具有針對(duì)性,一定程度上提高了訓(xùn)練的快速性及精度。最后基于對(duì)未來極端氣象條件預(yù)測(cè)的覆冰數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用還原論和反演論思想,構(gòu)建復(fù)雜工況條件下多模態(tài)線路力學(xué)模型,推導(dǎo)相應(yīng)部件應(yīng)力求解方法,考慮部件長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)行強(qiáng)度影響因素及評(píng)判專家知識(shí)的不確定性,建立了強(qiáng)度模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,驗(yàn)算了現(xiàn)有線路的力學(xué)結(jié)構(gòu)的脆弱性,并據(jù)此提出新線路設(shè)計(jì)改進(jìn)方案。進(jìn)一步為輸電線路覆冰設(shè)計(jì)研究提供量化分析工具,提高了臨安地區(qū)輸電線路抗冰保障綜合技術(shù)能力和臨安電網(wǎng)的安全運(yùn)行水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, affected by global warming, various kinds of meteorological disasters are more frequent, resulting in more and more serious losses and impacts, strong damage, wide range of impact, and more difficult to deal with. It has become a very important and practical research topic how to deal with the harm caused by the icing of power grid in the planning, design and operation of power system. After the snow disaster in southern China in 2008, many scientific research institutes, The electric power enterprise has carried on the research on the line icing, but it is limited to the common research under the typical meteorological conditions in the large area. The research on icing design of transmission lines under micrometeorological conditions in mountainous areas is currently a leading topic at home and abroad, and is lack of relevant research and application. The starting point and foothold of this paper are the microgeographical and micrometeorological area in Tianchi Mountain area of Lin'an County, Zhejiang Province. Firstly, the formation mechanism and the meteorological and geographical characteristics of the icing on the line are studied. Based on many meteorological factors, such as temperature, wind (velocity and direction), rainfall, liquid water in the cloud and relative humidity, a basic icing model is proposed. In order to obtain the on-line monitoring data and meteorological data provided by meteorological station in Linan Mountain area accurately, the prediction model is verified to be scientific and accurate. The method of measuring the input parameters of icing model is introduced from three local angles. At the same time, the statistical analysis and modeling of ice-covered load data of transmission line conductors and structures are analyzed in order to provide reference value for the design and reliability evaluation of overhead transmission lines in the next step. Based on the preservation history of transmission line on-line monitoring equipment in Lin'an area, a prediction model of icing in Tianchi mountainous area was established by using fuzzy neural network theory. The prediction algorithm of the model is developed by C language, and the influence factors of micrometeorological parameters are sorted by using the formula of the influence depth coefficient of icing on power lines, and the effective data are screened. It is determined that the input layer of neural network is composed of wind speed, wind direction, ambient temperature and humidity, which makes the data of neural network training more pertinent, and improves the training speed and precision to a certain extent. Finally, based on the ice-covered data of the prediction of the future extreme meteorological conditions, using reductionism and inversion theory, the multi-modal line mechanics model under complex working conditions is constructed, and the corresponding component stress solution method is deduced. Taking into account the influence factors of long-term operation strength of components and the uncertainty of expert knowledge, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of strength is established, and the fragility of the mechanical structure of existing lines is checked and calculated. Based on this, a new route design improvement scheme is put forward. Furthermore, it provides a quantitative analysis tool for the study of icing design of transmission lines, and improves the comprehensive technical capability of anti-ice protection of transmission lines in Lin'an area and the level of safe operation of Linan power network.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TM752

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本文編號(hào)：1961231