本文選題：智能電網(wǎng) + 電力系統(tǒng)運營管理　； 參考：《華北電力大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：為了應對全球氣候惡化與提高能源利用效率,各國電力工業(yè)都開始在智能電網(wǎng)方面做出探索與實踐。智能電網(wǎng)實施給電力系統(tǒng)的各運營管理主體帶來新的挑戰(zhàn),特別是可再生能源參與發(fā)電側(cè)運營管理并接入電網(wǎng),電力調(diào)度由電量調(diào)度轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樨摵烧{(diào)度,用戶側(cè)通過智能雙向互動體系參與電網(wǎng)運營管理。相比傳統(tǒng)電力系統(tǒng),智能電網(wǎng)實現(xiàn)了電力流.信息流、資金流的高度融合,給電力系統(tǒng)注入了新的活力,同時在某種程度上也增加了各運營管理主體的風險性。針對這一新形勢,本文基于電力風險元傳遞理論,從運營管理主體維入手,分別對智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下發(fā)電側(cè)、電網(wǎng)側(cè)、用戶側(cè)的運營管理風險元傳遞情形進行建模分析,進而探討了基于風險元傳遞模型的智能電網(wǎng)運營管理決策支持系統(tǒng)。論文的研究成果主要體現(xiàn)在以下五個方面： (1)對智能電網(wǎng)運營管理風險元理論進行了初探,提出了智能電網(wǎng)運營管理風險元傳遞三維建模思路。借鑒電力風險元傳遞理論,對智能電網(wǎng)運營管理風險進行分析,從風險元傳遞參與主體維、風險元傳遞方法維以及風險元傳遞路徑維三個方面,提出了智能電網(wǎng)運營管理風險元傳遞三維一體建模思路。 (2)考慮智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下可再生能源參與的發(fā)電側(cè)運營管理,以風力發(fā)電為例進行研究,構(gòu)建風力發(fā)電獨自運營管理風險元傳遞模型與風-火聯(lián)合運營風險元傳遞模型。風力發(fā)電獨自運營管理抓住風電上網(wǎng)電價與風電上網(wǎng)電量兩條主線,分別構(gòu)建風險元傳遞模型進行運營管理風險分析。為了彌補風力發(fā)電的間歇性、隨機性,采用風-火聯(lián)合運營管理模式,從負荷預測風險元、燃料價格風險元、上網(wǎng)電價風險元以及風電出力風險元四個方面入手,構(gòu)建風-火聯(lián)合運營管理風險元傳遞模型,分析了多風險元波動對整體收益的影響。 (3)針對智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下電網(wǎng)側(cè)運營管理面臨的新挑戰(zhàn),從智能電網(wǎng)投資項目、負荷預測、市場購電、智能調(diào)度以及信息安全等,分別構(gòu)建電網(wǎng)側(cè)運營管理風險元傳遞模型。根據(jù)智能電網(wǎng)投資項目資金分配情況,從自然風險元、管理風險元、技術(shù)風險元、市場經(jīng)濟風險元以及政策風險元五方面入手,構(gòu)建層次型風險元傳遞模型�？紤]智能電網(wǎng)的實施對負荷預測提出更高的要求,提出了更為精確的基于MFGM的智能電網(wǎng)負荷風險元預測模型。針對智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下市場購電發(fā)生的新變化,同時考慮到負荷預測、上網(wǎng)電價以及可再生能源出力不確定性,構(gòu)建智能電網(wǎng)下考慮風險元傳遞的市場購電優(yōu)化模型。針對智能電網(wǎng)調(diào)度主觀信息的不確定性對調(diào)度結(jié)果產(chǎn)生重要影響,構(gòu)建了考慮信息不確定性的智能電網(wǎng)調(diào)度風險元傳遞模型。針對智能電網(wǎng)業(yè)務信息傳遞過程的不確定性,采用吸收馬爾科夫鏈理論構(gòu)建智能電網(wǎng)信息安全風險元傳遞模型,分析由于信息系統(tǒng)發(fā)生安全事件而導致的后果嚴重程度。 (4)構(gòu)建了考慮用戶側(cè)參與的智能電網(wǎng)運營風險傳遞模型。針對基于激勵與價格兩類需求響應方式,分別選取可中斷負荷與峰谷分時電價作為典型代表,構(gòu)建了考慮風險元傳遞的可中斷負荷參與系統(tǒng)備用配置模型、考慮峰谷分時電價實施的電網(wǎng)收益風險元傳遞模型,對智能電網(wǎng)用戶通過需求響應方式參與運營管理進行風險分析。針對用戶側(cè)供電方面,以分布式電源與電動汽車參與微電網(wǎng)運營管理為例,構(gòu)建考慮成本、排污以及風險(風險元傳遞)的微電網(wǎng)運營多目標優(yōu)化模型,并提出小生境多目標粒子群算法進行求解。 (5)研究了基于風險元傳遞模型的面向電網(wǎng)側(cè)的智能電網(wǎng)運營管理風險決策支持系統(tǒng)(SGOM-RDSS)。為提高智能電網(wǎng)運營管理決策效率,基于本文已提出的風險元傳遞模型,以電網(wǎng)側(cè)作為運營管理主體為例,探討了基于模型驅(qū)動的智能電網(wǎng)運營管理決策支持系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計。在對SGOM-RDSS功能需求分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對該系統(tǒng)的架構(gòu)設(shè)計與功能設(shè)計進行研究,并探討了SGOM-RDSS的重要風險元提取、數(shù)據(jù)交互及模型庫自定義等配套關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the global climate deterioration and improve the efficiency of energy utilization, the power industry in all countries has begun to explore and practice the smart grid. The implementation of the smart grid brings new challenges to the main operators of the power system, especially the renewable energy involved in the operation management of the power generation side and the access to the power grid, and the power dispatching is dispatched by the power dispatching. It is transformed into load scheduling, and the user side participates in the operation and management of power grid through intelligent two-way interaction system. Compared with the traditional power system, the smart grid has realized the high fusion of power flow, information flow and capital flow, which inject new vitality into the power system, and at the same time, it also adds the risk of various operation management bodies to some extent. In this paper, based on the theory of the power risk element transfer, this paper, starting with the main dimension of the operation management, modeling and analyzing the risk element transmission of the operation management of the power generation side, the power grid side and the user side in the smart grid environment, and then discusses the decision support system of the operation and management of the smart grid based on the risk element transfer model. The results are mainly reflected in the following five aspects:
(1) the risk meta theory of smart grid operation management is discussed, and the three dimensional modeling idea of risk element transfer in smart grid operation management is proposed. Using the theory of power risk element transfer, the risk of smart grid operation management is analyzed, the risk element is transferred from the main dimension, the risk element transmission method dimension and the risk element transfer path dimension three. On the one hand, a three-dimensional integrated modeling method for risk management of smart grid operation management is put forward.
(2) consider the operation management of the generation side of the renewable energy in the smart grid environment, take the wind power as an example, and construct the wind power alone operation management risk element transfer model and the wind fire joint operation risk element transfer model. The wind power alone operation management holds the two main lines of the wind power network electricity price and the wind power network electricity. In order to make up the intermittence and randomness of wind power generation, the wind fire joint operation management model is adopted to build the wind fire joint operation management model, and the wind fire combined operation management wind is constructed from four aspects: load forecasting risk element, fuel price risk element, Internet price risk element and wind power output risk element. The risk element transfer model is used to analyze the impact of multiple risk variables on the overall return.
(3) in view of the new challenges facing the operation and management of the grid side under the smart grid environment, from the smart grid investment projects, load forecasting, market purchase, intelligent scheduling and information security, the risk element transfer model of the power grid side operation management is constructed respectively. According to the allocation of investment items in the smart grid, from the natural risk element and the management risk element, In the five aspects of the technical risk element, the market economy risk element and the policy risk element, the hierarchical risk element transfer model is constructed. Considering the implementation of the smart grid, the higher requirements for the load forecasting are put forward, and a more accurate model of the MFGM based load risk prediction model for smart grid is proposed. At the same time, taking into account the load forecasting, the Internet electricity price and the uncertainty of the renewable energy output, the market purchase optimization model which considers the risk element transmission under the smart grid is constructed. The uncertainty of the subjective information of the smart grid dispatching has an important influence on the scheduling results, and the smart grid adjustment considering information uncertainty is constructed. The degree risk meta transfer model. Aiming at the uncertainty of the information transmission process of the smart grid business, using the absorption Markov chain theory, the information security risk element transfer model of the smart grid is constructed, and the severity of the consequences caused by the security events of the information system is analyzed.
(4) the risk transfer model of smart grid operation considering the user side participation is constructed. According to the response mode of incentive and price two demand response, the interruptible load and peak valley time price are selected as typical representative, and the standby configuration model of the interruptible load participation system considering the risk element transfer is constructed, and the peak valley time price is considered. The risk analysis of the power grid revenue risk element is applied to the smart grid users to participate in the operation management through the demand response mode. With regard to the power supply side of the user side, taking the distributed power and the electric vehicle to participate in the microgrid operation and management as an example, the multi-objective of the micro grid operation considering the cost, discharge and risk (risk element transfer) is constructed. Optimization model is proposed, and niche multi objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to solve it.
(5) the risk decision support system (SGOM-RDSS) for the smart grid operation management based on the risk element transfer model is studied. In order to improve the efficiency of the operation and management of the smart grid, based on the risk element transfer model proposed in this paper, the model driven smart grid based on the power grid side is taken as an example. The design of operation management decision support system (DSS) is designed. On the basis of the analysis of SGOM-RDSS function requirements, the architecture design and function design of the system are studied. The key technologies of SGOM-RDSS, such as important risk element extraction, data interaction and model library customization, are discussed.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F272.3;F426.61

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