本文選題：XLPE電纜 + 多參數(shù)檢測��； 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：上海氣候溫和濕潤,是一個(gè)多地表水的城市,且許多電纜已經(jīng)運(yùn)行了20年左右,處于事故多發(fā)期,研究中低壓電纜在特征環(huán)境下的老化狀態(tài)顯得非常重要。本論文通過水樹枝觀測、介電譜測試、FTIR光譜、拉伸試驗(yàn)、電老化試驗(yàn)、熱重分析、差示掃描量熱、熱老化試驗(yàn)以及加速水樹老化試驗(yàn)等,對(duì)電纜絕緣老化及其檢測方法進(jìn)行研究。提出水樹含量與最大水樹枝長度、高頻介損峰值與羰基指數(shù)、拉伸強(qiáng)度與斷裂伸長率、累積擊穿強(qiáng)度、活化能、基于等效熱歷史參數(shù)的新參數(shù)ln(t/τT)等多個(gè)現(xiàn)場老化電纜絕緣老化狀態(tài)檢測量,用于表征電纜水樹化程度、熱氧老化程度、絕緣降解程度、耐受電老化能力、絕緣熱分解難易程度、絕緣老化狀態(tài)等,以全面反映電纜絕緣中可能存在的各種老化形態(tài)。對(duì)不同老化狀態(tài)電纜樣品的各檢測數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了方差分析,結(jié)果表明上述檢測量均可對(duì)不同老化程度的現(xiàn)場老化電纜進(jìn)行標(biāo)識(shí)。此外,通過水樹枝觀測發(fā)現(xiàn)了大量典型的領(lǐng)結(jié)形水樹枝,說明水樹老化是上海中低壓電纜的典型現(xiàn)場老化特征；對(duì)電纜徑向不同位置處的絕緣進(jìn)行了紅外分析,結(jié)果表明氧氣是導(dǎo)致電纜熱氧老化的主要因素；對(duì)熱重分析數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了熱降解動(dòng)力學(xué)分析與回歸分析,結(jié)果表明60%適合作為Ozawa法(或Toop法)求取交聯(lián)聚乙烯電纜絕緣熱分解活化能時(shí)失重百分?jǐn)?shù)的選擇標(biāo)準(zhǔn),20℃/min下的Coast-Redfern法(機(jī)理S9)可作為大量現(xiàn)場老化電纜樣品絕緣熱分解活化能的快速測定方法；加速水樹老化試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,現(xiàn)場運(yùn)行電纜的水樹化過程是加速進(jìn)行的。運(yùn)用上述檢測方法對(duì)上海市近20年內(nèi)、約300條線路466根現(xiàn)場老化電纜樣品進(jìn)行了實(shí)驗(yàn)室理化分析,對(duì)每兩項(xiàng)檢測量進(jìn)行了回歸分析,結(jié)果表明：水樹枝觀測以及拉伸試驗(yàn)是有效且可靠的；水樹化程度越高,力學(xué)性能傾向于變差；證實(shí)固體材料的微觀不完整性增大會(huì)提高介質(zhì)的擊穿強(qiáng)度；電纜絕緣的現(xiàn)場老化過程是加速進(jìn)行的；證實(shí)熱氧化老化會(huì)抑制電纜徑向的水樹生長；絕緣熱氧化老化過程伴隨著XLPE交聯(lián)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的降解；ln(t/τT)能夠有效表征現(xiàn)場老化電纜絕緣老化降解程度。對(duì)每項(xiàng)檢測量進(jìn)行了T-檢驗(yàn)、方差分析,分析了敷設(shè)方式、采樣區(qū)段等對(duì)電纜老化降解程度的影響,結(jié)果表明：敷設(shè)方式對(duì)羰基指數(shù)與拉伸強(qiáng)度均有顯著性的影響,排管電纜比直埋電纜更易發(fā)生熱氧化,而直埋電纜比排管電纜更易發(fā)生絕緣老化降解；能夠體現(xiàn)采樣區(qū)段以及敷設(shè)區(qū)域顯著性影響的檢測量只有傳統(tǒng)功能性參數(shù)拉伸強(qiáng)度和累積擊穿強(qiáng)度,并且基于兩個(gè)檢測量的方差分析結(jié)果一致,其可靠性得到了進(jìn)一步的證明。選取回歸分析中相關(guān)度高、方差分析和T檢驗(yàn)中能可靠體現(xiàn)差異性,并且結(jié)果合理的檢測量作為特征變量,包括水樹含量、拉伸強(qiáng)度、累積擊穿強(qiáng)度和活化能。將高度相關(guān)的兩個(gè)檢測量組合進(jìn)行二維模糊聚類,所得聚類中心作為特征模糊變量的隸屬度函數(shù)參數(shù)。根據(jù)模糊聚類情況與專家經(jīng)驗(yàn),建立了診斷規(guī)則。采用強(qiáng)度轉(zhuǎn)移法,建立了電纜絕緣模糊聚類診斷模型,實(shí)例分析表明,該模型可以很好地反映電纜絕緣的綜合老化狀態(tài),且電纜絕緣老化狀態(tài)與投運(yùn)時(shí)間沒有必然聯(lián)系。根據(jù)電纜檢測數(shù)據(jù)與絕緣診斷模型,開發(fā)了電纜狀態(tài)評(píng)估與老化趨勢管理系統(tǒng)軟件,并對(duì)所有線路電纜樣品進(jìn)行了絕緣診斷,診斷結(jié)果的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析與電纜狀態(tài)檢測數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析的結(jié)論完全一致,驗(yàn)證了模型的可靠性。采用逐步回歸法,分析了同一現(xiàn)場運(yùn)行條件下的正常現(xiàn)場老化電纜樣品的絕緣狀態(tài)檢測數(shù)據(jù)與老化時(shí)間的多元線性回歸關(guān)系。結(jié)果顯示老化時(shí)間與水樹含量,累積擊穿強(qiáng)度與活化能等三個(gè)檢測量的多元線性回歸關(guān)系顯著,據(jù)此建立了電纜絕緣多變量老化模型,模型參數(shù)取決于具體的現(xiàn)場運(yùn)行條件,對(duì)應(yīng)一定的絕緣降解速率實(shí)例分析表明該老化模型是合理的,并且絕緣失效取決于電纜降解速率而非電纜的投運(yùn)時(shí)間。
[Abstract]:Shanghai has a mild and humid climate. It is a city with multi surface water, and many cables have been in operation for about 20 years. It is in a period of frequent accidents. The aging state of low-voltage cables in the study is very important. This paper is based on water branch observation, dielectric spectrum test, FTIR spectrum, tensile test, electrical aging test, thermogravimetric analysis and differential analysis. Scanning calorimetry, thermal aging test and accelerated water tree aging test, the aging of cable insulation and its detection methods were studied. Water tree content and maximum water branch length, high frequency dielectric loss peak and carbonyl index, tensile strength and elongation at break, cumulative breakdown strength, activation energy, new parameter ln (t/ tau T) based on equivalent thermal history parameters were proposed. The measurement of insulation aging state of several field aging cables is used to characterize the degree of cable water tree, the degree of thermal oxygen aging, the degree of insulation degradation, the resistance to electrical aging, the difficulty of insulation thermal decomposition and the aging state of insulation, so as to reflect all kinds of aging forms that may exist in cable insulation. The test data were analyzed by variance. The results showed that the above detection amount could identify the aging cable with different aging degree. In addition, a large number of typical tie shaped water branches were found by water branch observation, indicating that the aging of the water tree is the typical field aging characteristic of the middle and low pressure cables in Shanghai, and the radial direction of the cable is different. The results show that oxygen is the main factor causing the thermal oxygen aging of the cable, and the thermal degradation kinetics analysis and regression analysis of the thermogravimetric analysis data show that 60% is suitable for the selection of the weight loss percentage of the Ozawa method (or Toop method) for the thermal decomposition activation energy of the crosslinked polyethylene cable insulation, 20 The Coast-Redfern method (mechanism S9) under /min can be used as a rapid method for determining the activation energy of insulation thermal decomposition of a large number of field aging cable samples. The results of accelerated water tree aging test show that the water tree process of the field operating cable is accelerated. In the last 20 years, about 300 lines in Shanghai were aged and 466 were aged on site. The results show that water branch observation and tensile test are effective and reliable, and the higher the degree of water tree is, the mechanical properties tend to be worse. It is proved that the micro incompleteness of solid material will increase the breakdown strength of the medium; the cable is absolute. The aging process of the edge is accelerated; it is proved that thermal oxidation aging will inhibit the growth of the radial water tree of the cable; the thermal oxidation aging process of the insulation is accompanied by the degradation of the XLPE crosslinking network; ln (t/ tau T) can effectively characterize the aging degradation degree of the insulation of the field aging cable. The T- test, analysis of variance, and analysis of each measurement are carried out. The effect of laying mode and sampling section on the degradation degree of cable aging shows that the laying method has a significant effect on the carbonyl index and tensile strength, and the pipe cable is more prone to thermal oxidation than the direct buried cable, while the direct buried cable is more prone to insulation degradation than the pipe cable, and can reflect the sampling section and the laying area. The detection amount of the domain saliency is only the tensile strength and the cumulative breakdown strength of the traditional functional parameters, and the reliability is further proved based on the results of the variance analysis of the two tests. The high correlation, the variance analysis and the T test in the regression analysis can reliably reflect the difference, and the result is reasonable. Quantity as a characteristic variable, including the content of water tree, tensile strength, cumulative breakdown strength and activation energy. A two dimensional fuzzy clustering is carried out by combining two highly related tests. The clustering center is used as the membership function parameter of the characteristic fuzzy variables. According to the fuzzy clustering situation and the expert experience, the diagnosis rules are established. The fuzzy clustering diagnosis model of cable insulation is established. The example analysis shows that the model can well reflect the comprehensive aging state of cable insulation, and there is no inevitable connection between the aging state of cable insulation and the time of delivery. The insulation diagnosis of all line cable samples is carried out. The statistical analysis of the diagnosis results is completely consistent with the conclusion of the statistical analysis of the cable state detection data. The reliability of the model is verified by the stepwise regression method, and the insulation state detection data and aging of the samples of the normal field aging cable under the same operation condition are analyzed. The results show that the relationship between the aging time and the content of water tree, the cumulative breakdown strength and the activation energy of the multiple linear regression is significant. According to this, the multi-variable aging model of cable insulation is established. The model parameters are determined by the specific field running pieces, corresponding to the example analysis of the insulation degradation rate. The aging model is reasonable and the insulation failure depends on the degradation rate of the cable rather than the cable's running time.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM855

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 廖瑞金;解兵;楊麗君;梁帥偉;程渙超;孫才新;向彬;;油紙絕緣電-熱聯(lián)合老化壽命模型的比較與分析[J];電工技術(shù)學(xué)報(bào);2006年02期

2 王雅群;尹毅;李旭光;蔡川;;等溫松弛電流用于10kV XLPE電纜壽命評(píng)估的方法[J];電工技術(shù)學(xué)報(bào);2009年09期

3 曹曉瓏;劉英;;我國電力電纜及其敷設(shè)技術(shù)現(xiàn)狀[J];電力設(shè)備;2007年04期

4 吳倩,劉毅剛;高壓交聯(lián)聚乙烯電纜絕緣老化及其診斷技術(shù)述評(píng)[J];廣東電力;2003年04期

5 蔣雄偉,賈志東,謝恒;絕緣材料老化壽命模型的研究進(jìn)展[J];高電壓技術(shù);2000年03期

6 周遠(yuǎn)翔;聶瓊;邢曉亮;王云杉;王寧華;梁曦東;關(guān)志成;;頻率對(duì)高密度聚乙烯電樹老化特性的影響[J];高電壓技術(shù);2008年02期

，

本文編號(hào)：1828513