基于回歸分析的電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費合理性評估
發(fā)布時間:2018-04-26 01:35
本文選題:電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費 + 影響因素分析。 參考:《電力系統(tǒng)自動化》2014年13期
【摘要】:電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費是輸配電成本的重要組成部分,為了科學(xué)測算輸配電價格,需要準(zhǔn)確合理的成本數(shù)據(jù)。但國內(nèi)各省級電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費之間差異較大,難以按統(tǒng)一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來判定其合理性。文中基于回歸分析理論,提出一種評估電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費合理性的方法。首先進(jìn)行電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費的影響因素分析,篩選出主要影響因素;其次提取主成分消除各影響因素之間的多重相關(guān)性;然后對電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費與主成分進(jìn)行回歸分析,得到省級電網(wǎng)運行維護(hù)費的統(tǒng)計規(guī)律;最后利用肖維勒準(zhǔn)則來評估電網(wǎng)企業(yè)上報的運行維護(hù)費數(shù)據(jù)的合理性。以27個省級電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的實際數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行算例分析,結(jié)果表明該方法有效可行。
[Abstract]:Maintenance fee is an important part of transmission and distribution cost. In order to calculate the price of transmission and distribution scientifically, accurate and reasonable cost data are needed. However, there are great differences between the maintenance fees of the provincial power network in China, so it is difficult to judge the rationality according to the unified standard or classification standard. Based on the theory of regression analysis, this paper presents a method to evaluate the reasonableness of maintenance fee. Firstly, the main influencing factors are selected by analyzing the influencing factors of power network operation and maintenance fee. Secondly, the main components are extracted to eliminate the multiple correlation among the influencing factors. Then, the regression analysis is carried out between the maintenance fee and the principal component of the power network. The statistical rule of the maintenance fee of provincial power network is obtained. Finally, the rationality of the operating maintenance fee data reported by the power grid enterprises is evaluated by using the Shauvier criterion. The actual data of 27 provincial power grid enterprises are analyzed and the results show that this method is effective and feasible.
【作者單位】: 華北電力大學(xué)電氣與電子工程學(xué)院;國網(wǎng)北京密云供電公司;
【分類號】:TM732
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
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