本文選題：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　切入點(diǎn)：社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力負(fù)荷是電力系統(tǒng)中能量的消耗者,是電力系統(tǒng)的服務(wù)對(duì)象,正確地分析電力負(fù)荷的變化對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)、分析與控制都具有重要意義。而電力系統(tǒng)負(fù)荷的中長(zhǎng)期變化是受到社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策等多方面不確定因素綜合影響的一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)過程,選擇合適的方法對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)負(fù)荷進(jìn)行相對(duì)準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃、電力產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展乃至地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)步都具有重要意義。 首先,在過去常用的負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)方法中,通常是將對(duì)全社會(huì)用電需求情況以及各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的用電需求情況單獨(dú)分開進(jìn)行分析,而忽略了它們之間的聯(lián)系。所以,本文提出使用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的方法來進(jìn)行社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)與用電趨勢(shì)的關(guān)聯(lián)分析。使用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法來分析社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)與用電趨勢(shì)間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,可以更好地反映各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素與全社會(huì)及各產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量間“牽一發(fā)而動(dòng)全身”的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,當(dāng)模型中某個(gè)變量發(fā)生變化時(shí),模型可以及時(shí)作出反應(yīng),使得其他變量一起隨之進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的變化,這樣可以更好地實(shí)現(xiàn)各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)用電變化間的均衡。 其次,本文以系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)為理論基礎(chǔ),并且在充分考慮全社會(huì)以及各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量與其用電需求變化間相互關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,使用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)軟件——Vensim PLE對(duì)全社會(huì)及各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)均建立經(jīng)濟(jì)變量與用電需求變化間的關(guān)聯(lián)模型,模型在考慮每個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)用電變化特點(diǎn)的同時(shí)也體現(xiàn)出了各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)間緊密的聯(lián)系。 再次,本文以我國(guó)西部某欠發(fā)達(dá)省份A省作為研究對(duì)象,在充分了解該省社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)及用電需求歷史發(fā)展規(guī)律及現(xiàn)狀的前提下,使用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法對(duì)其建立了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)與用電趨勢(shì)的關(guān)聯(lián)分析模型,并使用回歸算法對(duì)模型中參數(shù)進(jìn)行估計(jì),從而得出該省2014年～2020年社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)及用電需求的預(yù)測(cè)值,并由預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)來對(duì)其未來發(fā)展趨勢(shì)作出分析。 最后,本文將預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與該省發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及未來發(fā)展規(guī)劃進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,得出該省在2020年達(dá)到規(guī)劃要求是可能的以及所建立模型預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)論,這說明系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)應(yīng)用于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)與用電趨勢(shì)關(guān)聯(lián)分析的分析結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確并且具有較好系統(tǒng)均衡性。
[Abstract]:Power load is the energy consumer in the power system and the service object of the power system. The design of the power system is correctly analyzed by the change of the power load. Analysis and control are of great significance. The medium and long term change of power system load is a dynamic process which is influenced by many uncertain factors, such as social economy, policy and so on. It is very important for power system planning, electric power industry development and even regional economic progress to select appropriate methods to forecast the load of power system. First of all, in the past commonly used load forecasting methods, we usually analyze the demand situation of the whole society separately and the demand situation of each industry separately, ignoring the connection between them. In this paper, the method of system dynamics is proposed to analyze the relationship between social economy and power trend, and the system dynamics method is used to analyze the relationship between social economy and power trend. It can better reflect the dynamic relation between each economic factor and the electricity consumption of the whole society and industry. When a variable in the model changes, the model can react in time. So that the other variables together with the corresponding changes, so as to achieve a better balance between the changes in electricity consumption in various industries. Secondly, based on the theory of system dynamics, and on the basis of fully considering the relationship between the economic variables of the whole society and various industries and their demand for electricity, The system dynamics software Vensim PLE is used to establish the correlation model between the economic variables and the change of electricity demand for the whole society and every industry. The model considers the characteristics of each industry and reflects the close relation between each industry. Thirdly, this paper takes A province, an underdeveloped province in the west of China, as the research object, on the premise of fully understanding the historical development law and current situation of the province's social economy and electricity demand. The correlation analysis model between social economy and power consumption trend is established by using the system dynamics method, and the parameters in the model are estimated by using regression algorithm, so as to obtain the forecast value of the province's social economy and electricity demand from 2014 to 2020. And from the forecast data to its future development trend to make the analysis. Finally, this paper compares the prediction results with the current situation and future development plan of the province, and draws the conclusion that it is possible for the province to meet the planning requirements in 2020 and the model is accurate. This indicates that the system dynamics is applied to the analysis of the relationship between social economy and power consumption trend and the results are accurate and have good system equilibrium.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：N941.3;F426.61

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