本文選題：系統(tǒng)動力學　切入點：社會經(jīng)濟指標　出處：《北京交通大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力負荷是電力系統(tǒng)中能量的消耗者,是電力系統(tǒng)的服務(wù)對象,正確地分析電力負荷的變化對電力系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計、分析與控制都具有重要意義。而電力系統(tǒng)負荷的中長期變化是受到社會經(jīng)濟、政策等多方面不確定因素綜合影響的一個動態(tài)過程,選擇合適的方法對電力系統(tǒng)負荷進行相對準確的預測對電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃、電力產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展乃至地區(qū)經(jīng)濟進步都具有重要意義。 首先,在過去常用的負荷預測方法中,通常是將對全社會用電需求情況以及各個產(chǎn)業(yè)的用電需求情況單獨分開進行分析,而忽略了它們之間的聯(lián)系。所以,本文提出使用系統(tǒng)動力學的方法來進行社會經(jīng)濟與用電趨勢的關(guān)聯(lián)分析。使用系統(tǒng)動力學方法來分析社會經(jīng)濟與用電趨勢間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,可以更好地反映各個經(jīng)濟因素與全社會及各產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量間“牽一發(fā)而動全身”的動態(tài)關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,當模型中某個變量發(fā)生變化時,模型可以及時作出反應,使得其他變量一起隨之進行相應的變化,這樣可以更好地實現(xiàn)各個產(chǎn)業(yè)用電變化間的均衡。 其次,本文以系統(tǒng)動力學為理論基礎(chǔ),并且在充分考慮全社會以及各個產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟變量與其用電需求變化間相互關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,使用系統(tǒng)動力學軟件——Vensim PLE對全社會及各個產(chǎn)業(yè)均建立經(jīng)濟變量與用電需求變化間的關(guān)聯(lián)模型,模型在考慮每個產(chǎn)業(yè)用電變化特點的同時也體現(xiàn)出了各個產(chǎn)業(yè)間緊密的聯(lián)系。 再次,本文以我國西部某欠發(fā)達省份A省作為研究對象,在充分了解該省社會經(jīng)濟及用電需求歷史發(fā)展規(guī)律及現(xiàn)狀的前提下,使用系統(tǒng)動力學方法對其建立了社會經(jīng)濟與用電趨勢的關(guān)聯(lián)分析模型,并使用回歸算法對模型中參數(shù)進行估計,從而得出該省2014年～2020年社會經(jīng)濟及用電需求的預測值,并由預測數(shù)據(jù)來對其未來發(fā)展趨勢作出分析。 最后,本文將預測結(jié)果與該省發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及未來發(fā)展規(guī)劃進行對比分析,得出該省在2020年達到規(guī)劃要求是可能的以及所建立模型預測準確的結(jié)論,這說明系統(tǒng)動力學應用于社會經(jīng)濟與用電趨勢關(guān)聯(lián)分析的分析結(jié)果準確并且具有較好系統(tǒng)均衡性。
[Abstract]:Power load is the energy consumer in the power system and the service object of the power system. The design of the power system is correctly analyzed by the change of the power load. Analysis and control are of great significance. The medium and long term change of power system load is a dynamic process which is influenced by many uncertain factors, such as social economy, policy and so on. It is very important for power system planning, electric power industry development and even regional economic progress to select appropriate methods to forecast the load of power system. First of all, in the past commonly used load forecasting methods, we usually analyze the demand situation of the whole society separately and the demand situation of each industry separately, ignoring the connection between them. In this paper, the method of system dynamics is proposed to analyze the relationship between social economy and power trend, and the system dynamics method is used to analyze the relationship between social economy and power trend. It can better reflect the dynamic relation between each economic factor and the electricity consumption of the whole society and industry. When a variable in the model changes, the model can react in time. So that the other variables together with the corresponding changes, so as to achieve a better balance between the changes in electricity consumption in various industries. Secondly, based on the theory of system dynamics, and on the basis of fully considering the relationship between the economic variables of the whole society and various industries and their demand for electricity, The system dynamics software Vensim PLE is used to establish the correlation model between the economic variables and the change of electricity demand for the whole society and every industry. The model considers the characteristics of each industry and reflects the close relation between each industry. Thirdly, this paper takes A province, an underdeveloped province in the west of China, as the research object, on the premise of fully understanding the historical development law and current situation of the province's social economy and electricity demand. The correlation analysis model between social economy and power consumption trend is established by using the system dynamics method, and the parameters in the model are estimated by using regression algorithm, so as to obtain the forecast value of the province's social economy and electricity demand from 2014 to 2020. And from the forecast data to its future development trend to make the analysis. Finally, this paper compares the prediction results with the current situation and future development plan of the province, and draws the conclusion that it is possible for the province to meet the planning requirements in 2020 and the model is accurate. This indicates that the system dynamics is applied to the analysis of the relationship between social economy and power consumption trend and the results are accurate and have good system equilibrium.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：N941.3;F426.61

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