本文選題：風(fēng)電　切入點(diǎn)：光伏發(fā)電　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展和常規(guī)能源的日益枯竭,大力發(fā)展新能源勢(shì)在必行。以風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電為代表的新能源發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)已逐步趨于產(chǎn)業(yè)化和規(guī)�；�,其并網(wǎng)運(yùn)行有效地緩解了電網(wǎng)承受的負(fù)荷壓力。然而,新能源發(fā)電出力具有隨機(jī)性且不可調(diào)控,并網(wǎng)后會(huì)增加系統(tǒng)的不確定性因素,影響系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行。因此,有必要對(duì)傳統(tǒng)調(diào)度模式進(jìn)行調(diào)整,以滿足新能源電力系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行要求。本文針對(duì)含大規(guī)模新能源的電力系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化調(diào)度問題進(jìn)行了研究。 本文首先分析了風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電的出力特性,基于其獨(dú)立輸出功率的概率分布,利用卷積建立了風(fēng)-光聯(lián)合出力的概率模型。此后,為了體現(xiàn)風(fēng)光出力的波動(dòng)性對(duì)系統(tǒng)發(fā)電和備用計(jì)劃的影響,采用功率區(qū)間預(yù)測(cè)和場(chǎng)景預(yù)測(cè)兩種方法對(duì)風(fēng)光出力的預(yù)測(cè)信息進(jìn)行了描述。 在基于區(qū)間預(yù)測(cè)的調(diào)度模型中,利用查找效率較高的二分法計(jì)算得到功率預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)間。通過將預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)間納入調(diào)度計(jì)劃中來反映風(fēng)光出力的隨機(jī)性,并通過置信概率的選擇對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行控制,進(jìn)而建立了以系統(tǒng)發(fā)電和備用成本最小為目標(biāo)的優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型。以10機(jī)系統(tǒng)為算例,采用GAMS/Cplex優(yōu)化軟件進(jìn)行求解,驗(yàn)證了模型的有效性。 在基于場(chǎng)景預(yù)測(cè)的調(diào)度模型中,利用拉丁超立方采樣及場(chǎng)景縮減技術(shù)得到模擬風(fēng)光出力波動(dòng)的典型場(chǎng)景,并定義了備用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)以衡量波動(dòng)場(chǎng)景下系統(tǒng)備用的緊張程度,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制。系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的經(jīng)濟(jì)性和可靠性取決于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)限制的設(shè)定和場(chǎng)景數(shù)的選取。調(diào)度部門可以此為依據(jù),合理安排系統(tǒng)中機(jī)組出力及備用計(jì)劃。 然后,通過對(duì)上述兩種模型優(yōu)化結(jié)果的對(duì)比,分析了二者在經(jīng)濟(jì)性和可靠性上取得的優(yōu)化效果：對(duì)于基于區(qū)間預(yù)測(cè)的調(diào)度模型,其經(jīng)濟(jì)性和可靠性取決于置信概率,為了保證備用足夠充裕,置信概率一般取值較大,導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)性下降。而考慮場(chǎng)景預(yù)測(cè)信息,則能保證系統(tǒng)在出現(xiàn)概率較大的典型場(chǎng)景下實(shí)現(xiàn)可靠運(yùn)行,這種調(diào)度計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)性較好,但往往無法考慮出現(xiàn)可能性很小的極端情況。最后,本文引入可中斷負(fù)荷和儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)兩項(xiàng)措施,并通過算例分析了其對(duì)含大規(guī)模新能源的電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行性能的改善作用,有助于制定更為全面有效的調(diào)度計(jì)劃。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and the depletion of conventional energy, it is imperative to vigorously develop new energy. The new energy generation industry, represented by wind power and photovoltaic power generation, has gradually become industrialized and large-scale. However, the power generation of new energy is random and uncontrollable, which will increase the uncertainty of the system and affect the stable operation of the system. It is necessary to adjust the traditional dispatching mode to meet the operational requirements of new energy power system. In this paper, the characteristics of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation are analyzed. Based on the probability distribution of its independent output power, a probability model of combined wind and light output is established by convolution. In order to reflect the influence of the fluctuation of the wind force on the power generation and standby plan of the system, the forecasting information of the wind force is described by two methods, namely, the power interval prediction and the scene prediction. In the scheduling model based on interval prediction, the power prediction interval is calculated by using the dichotomy method with high searching efficiency. The prediction interval is incorporated into the scheduling plan to reflect the randomness of the wind force. The system operation risk is controlled by the selection of confidence probability, and the optimal scheduling model with the minimum power generation and reserve cost as the goal is established. Taking the 10-machine system as an example, the optimization software GAMS/Cplex is used to solve the problem. The validity of the model is verified. In the scheduling model based on scenario prediction, the Latin hypercube sampling and scene reduction techniques are used to obtain the typical scenarios that simulate the fluctuation of wind and wind force, and the backup risk index is defined to measure the degree of system reserve tension in the fluctuating scenario. The economy and reliability of the system operation depends on the setting of the risk index limit and the selection of the number of scenarios. The dispatching department can reasonably arrange the generating unit output and reserve plan based on this. Then, by comparing the optimization results of the above two models, the optimization results of the two models are analyzed. For the scheduling model based on interval prediction, its economy and reliability depend on the confidence probability. In order to ensure that the reserve is sufficient enough, the confidence probability is generally larger, which leads to the decrease of economy. Considering the scenario prediction information, it can ensure the system to run reliably in the typical scenario with high probability. This kind of scheduling is better in planned economy, but it is often unable to consider extreme cases with very little possibility. Finally, two measures, interruptible load and energy storage system, are introduced in this paper. An example is given to analyze its effect on improving the operation performance of power system with large scale new energy, which is helpful to make a more comprehensive and effective dispatching plan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM73

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