發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-16 16:40

  本文選題：風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)　切入點(diǎn)：橫向誤差　出處：《電網(wǎng)技術(shù)》2015年10期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目前風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè)功率精度偏低,評(píng)估指標(biāo)常用縱向誤差,很少針對(duì)橫向誤差(延遲或超前時(shí)間)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)。提出了基于橫、縱向誤差平移修正的風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè)精度改善方法,給出用于風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)的不變趨勢(shì)功率持續(xù)時(shí)間的概念,并將風(fēng)電場(chǎng)日前功率預(yù)測(cè)曲線(xiàn)和實(shí)際功率曲線(xiàn)劃分為不變趨勢(shì)功率增加段、降低段和保持段3種模式。建立了各不變趨勢(shì)持續(xù)時(shí)間的計(jì)算模型,采用概率統(tǒng)計(jì)法獲得預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)間值與實(shí)際時(shí)間值之間的偏差值及滯后或超前方向,利用平移法和插值法聯(lián)合橫縱向誤差修正日前功率預(yù)測(cè)誤差。應(yīng)用上述方法對(duì)新疆某地區(qū)風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)曲線(xiàn)進(jìn)行仿真計(jì)算,結(jié)果如下:該地區(qū)風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)橫向誤差為3.78 h,方向?yàn)槌?縱向絕對(duì)誤差值為40.05 MW;采用平移插值修正后,橫向誤差值為2.56 h,降低了32.34%,縱向誤差值為32.58 MW,降低了18.65%。從而表明該方法可以有效提高風(fēng)電短期預(yù)測(cè)功率精度。
[Abstract]:At present, the accuracy of wind power prediction is on the low side, the longitudinal error is commonly used in the evaluation index, and the lateral error (delay or lead time) is seldom counted. A method to improve the accuracy of wind power prediction based on the translation correction of horizontal and longitudinal errors is proposed. The concept of constant trend power duration for wind power prediction is given, and the power prediction curve and actual power curve before wind farm are divided into constant trend power increase section. The models of the duration of each invariant trend are established, and the deviation value between the predicted time value and the actual time value and the direction of lag or advance are obtained by using the probability statistics method. By using the translation method and interpolation method combined with transverse and longitudinal error to correct the pre-day power prediction error, the wind power prediction curve in a certain area of Xinjiang is simulated and calculated by using the above method. The results are as follows: the lateral error of wind power prediction in this area is 3.78 h, the direction is ahead, and the absolute longitudinal error is 40.05 MW. The transverse error value is 2.56 h, which decreases 32.34 and 32.58 MWs respectively. The result shows that the proposed method can effectively improve the short-term power prediction accuracy of wind power generation.
【作者單位】： 新疆大學(xué)電氣工程學(xué)院;國(guó)網(wǎng)新疆電力公司;克拉瑪依理工學(xué)院籌建辦公室;奧爾堡大學(xué)工程與科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51267020) 國(guó)家國(guó)際科技合作專(zhuān)項(xiàng)資助(2013DFG61520) 高等學(xué)校博士學(xué)科點(diǎn)專(zhuān)項(xiàng)科研基金博導(dǎo)類(lèi)聯(lián)合資助項(xiàng)目(20126501110003)~~
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM614

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本文編號(hào)：1620763