發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-13 15:33

  本文選題：電動(dòng)汽車　切入點(diǎn)：需求規(guī)律　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和人們生活水平的不斷提高,我國(guó)的汽車量正在迅猛增長(zhǎng),對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境構(gòu)成嚴(yán)重威脅。在節(jié)能減排政策驅(qū)使下,可再生能源發(fā)電將得到快速發(fā)展。電動(dòng)汽車是可再生能源的最好互補(bǔ),發(fā)展電動(dòng)汽車不僅可以滿足人們出行的需要,而且可促進(jìn)節(jié)能減排,是我國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略方向。 電動(dòng)汽車大規(guī)模接入對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行既有正面的影響,也有負(fù)面的影響。電動(dòng)汽車負(fù)荷規(guī)律的不確定性對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的安全與可靠運(yùn)行帶來挑戰(zhàn),大量的電動(dòng)汽車接入可能會(huì)造成某些時(shí)段的負(fù)荷明顯上升,若車輛充電時(shí)段集中于負(fù)荷晚高峰時(shí)段,則對(duì)電網(wǎng)的安全可靠運(yùn)行更加不利,電動(dòng)汽車無序充電也可能對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)造成網(wǎng)損增加、電能質(zhì)量下降、負(fù)荷峰谷差率增大等不利影響；同時(shí),電動(dòng)汽車特有的主動(dòng)行為與儲(chǔ)能特性為電力系統(tǒng)實(shí)現(xiàn)可再生能源消納、負(fù)荷削峰填谷等提供了有利條件。但是,作為研究電動(dòng)汽車大規(guī)模接入對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)影響的基礎(chǔ),對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的電池需求規(guī)律、充電負(fù)荷規(guī)律、主動(dòng)空間等問題的相關(guān)研究依然薄弱；另一方面,電動(dòng)汽車的大規(guī)模普及依賴于完善的服務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò),但目前對(duì)集中式服務(wù)設(shè)施的定址定容方案的服務(wù)容量和盈利能力問題的研究較少,造成集中式服務(wù)設(shè)施布點(diǎn)方案和設(shè)備定容配置方案所產(chǎn)生的服務(wù)容量不確定,以及收益能力不確定的問題,這類問題又影響著對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車服務(wù)設(shè)施投資的積極性,可能會(huì)延緩服務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè),對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展造成不利影響。 因此,為解決上述問題,有必要對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的電池需求規(guī)律、充電負(fù)荷規(guī)律、主動(dòng)空間等進(jìn)行研究,為進(jìn)一步研究大規(guī)模電動(dòng)汽車接入對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的影響問題打下基礎(chǔ)；同時(shí)也有必要對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車充換電站布點(diǎn)以及集中式服務(wù)站建設(shè)中的服務(wù)容量、盈利能力問題進(jìn)行研究,以實(shí)現(xiàn)在實(shí)際投資建設(shè)前對(duì)于布點(diǎn)方案、站內(nèi)定容配置方案的服務(wù)容量預(yù)估、收益能力預(yù)估,為布點(diǎn)方案優(yōu)化、站內(nèi)資源配置優(yōu)化等問題的研究打下基礎(chǔ)。 本文的主要工作和創(chuàng)新成果如下： (1)在計(jì)及車輛的行駛規(guī)律的前提下,結(jié)合電動(dòng)汽車充電模式、換電模式這兩種電能補(bǔ)充方式的特點(diǎn),采用蒙特卡洛方法實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)車輛行駛、電池電量變化、需求產(chǎn)生、電能補(bǔ)充等行為的時(shí)序模擬,在多情景集下對(duì)一定規(guī)模電動(dòng)汽車在換電模式下的電池需求規(guī)律和最小儲(chǔ)備電池?cái)?shù)量,在充電模式下的電量需求規(guī)律和即插即充的充電負(fù)荷規(guī)律,以及充電、換電兩種模式下的主動(dòng)空間進(jìn)行研究。在每次模擬中對(duì)車輛一日中的出行時(shí)刻、出行距離、各時(shí)段的行駛速度等隨機(jī)變量進(jìn)行抽取,可明確電動(dòng)汽車一日中具體的行駛、靜止時(shí)段,從而對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的電量消耗過程進(jìn)行描述,依據(jù)電動(dòng)汽車換電模式、充電模式的不同特點(diǎn),結(jié)合車輛的剩余電量、停放時(shí)段等因素,分析車輛產(chǎn)生用電需求的具體時(shí)刻。在模擬中結(jié)合電動(dòng)汽車用電需求規(guī)律,并考慮了換電模式下的儲(chǔ)備電池循環(huán)、最小電池儲(chǔ)備需求,以及充電模式下的電動(dòng)汽車可入網(wǎng)時(shí)段,對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的兩種電能補(bǔ)充方式分別研究。該研究是進(jìn)行電動(dòng)汽車有序充電控制、電動(dòng)汽車充電設(shè)施定容規(guī)劃、電動(dòng)汽車與電網(wǎng)互動(dòng)技術(shù)(V2G)、可再生能源消納、電動(dòng)汽車負(fù)荷對(duì)電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷、電能質(zhì)量、電網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行影響等研究的基礎(chǔ)。 (2)提出了一種城市區(qū)域內(nèi)換電站布點(diǎn)方案的路上成本計(jì)算方法。在考慮區(qū)域內(nèi)車輛密度差異及路網(wǎng)建設(shè)差異的前提下,建立了將有向圖轉(zhuǎn)換為帶權(quán)二又樹進(jìn)行遍歷,以確定最優(yōu)路徑和最優(yōu)選站的電動(dòng)汽車行為模型,通過對(duì)車輛行為的時(shí)序模擬實(shí)現(xiàn)了換電站布點(diǎn)方案的換電路上成本計(jì)算,并研究了換電路上成本對(duì)換電站布點(diǎn)方案的服務(wù)容量以及各換電站平均負(fù)荷的影響。通過對(duì)待分析區(qū)域進(jìn)行劃分,將路網(wǎng)信息簡(jiǎn)化為網(wǎng)格信息,對(duì)區(qū)域內(nèi)的車輛位置、目的地位置、換電站位置三者的空間關(guān)系進(jìn)行描述,實(shí)現(xiàn)了區(qū)域內(nèi)的換電站布點(diǎn)方案路上成本計(jì)算,并以此為基礎(chǔ)對(duì)城市區(qū)域內(nèi)某布點(diǎn)方案的服務(wù)容量進(jìn)行研究。該研究是優(yōu)化換電站布點(diǎn)、換電站定容、換電站布點(diǎn)方案收益預(yù)估等研究的基礎(chǔ),同時(shí),本方法也可為集中式充電站的相關(guān)研究提供有益的參考。 (3)建立了換電站運(yùn)營(yíng)模型。建立了以最大化服務(wù)容量為目標(biāo),通過計(jì)及行駛規(guī)律的車輛行為時(shí)序模擬產(chǎn)生的換電需求作為排隊(duì)的輸入來源,多類設(shè)備形成服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)的排隊(duì)系統(tǒng),并在模型中考慮了車輛等待超時(shí)退出、設(shè)備分類與服務(wù)時(shí)間、分時(shí)電價(jià)下的計(jì)劃充電、電池循環(huán)、最小設(shè)備投入的換電站運(yùn)營(yíng)模型,研究了不同投資方案在一定車輛行為規(guī)律情況下的服務(wù)容量、設(shè)備閑置率、盈利能力、投資效率問題。在所建立的換電站運(yùn)營(yíng)模型中,換電站以最大化可服務(wù)車輛數(shù)作為自己的運(yùn)營(yíng)目標(biāo),并同時(shí)考慮到站內(nèi)設(shè)備的循環(huán)使用。運(yùn)營(yíng)模型為電動(dòng)汽車的服務(wù)設(shè)備進(jìn)行了多種分類,電動(dòng)汽車對(duì)每一類設(shè)備的使用時(shí)間長(zhǎng)度均服從不同的分布,車輛具有換電需求時(shí),僅當(dāng)其獲得了所有需要的設(shè)備后才會(huì)開始進(jìn)行服務(wù)。運(yùn)營(yíng)模型在分時(shí)電價(jià)的情景下,在不提高最小儲(chǔ)備電池需求數(shù)量的前提下,將部分電池安排至低谷電價(jià)時(shí)進(jìn)行充電,以此降低換電站的運(yùn)營(yíng)成本。該研究為換電站優(yōu)化設(shè)備配置、提高收益能力和投資效率等問題研究打下了基礎(chǔ),也可為充電模式下電動(dòng)汽車集中式充電站、分布式充電樁建設(shè)的相關(guān)研究提供借鑒。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standard, the amount of car in China is growing rapidly, which poses a serious threat to the ecological environment. In energy saving and emission reduction policy driven, renewable energy generation will be rapid development. The electric car is the best complementary renewable energy, the development of electric vehicles can not only meet the needs of people to travel, but also can to promote energy-saving emission reduction, is the strategic direction of the development of China's automobile industry.
Electric vehicle access to the power system not only has a positive impact, but also have a negative impact. The safety of electric vehicle load law uncertainty on the power system and the reliable operation of challenge, a large number of negative - electric vehicle access may cause some time significantly increased, if the vehicle charging time to load the evening rush hour then, the safe and reliable operation of the power grid more unfavorable, disorderly charging electric vehicles may also result in increase the network loss of power system, power quality decline, the adverse effects of load peak valley ratio increases; at the same time, the active behavior and storage of electric vehicle special characteristics for the power system to achieve renewable energy consumption, peak load provides favorable conditions. However, as the basic effect of electric vehicle access to the power system, the law of demand for electric vehicle battery, negative charge Dutch law, related research on active space problem is still weak; on the other hand, the massive popularity of electric vehicles depends on the improvement of the service network, the research on the service capacity and profitability but currently addressing a centralized service facility sizing scheme less, cause uncertainty centralized service facility layout scheme and equipment capacity configuration generated by the service capacity, profitability and uncertainty, this problem also affects the enthusiasm of investment in electric car service facilities, may delay the construction of service network, the adverse effects on the development of electric vehicle industry.
Therefore, it is necessary to solve the above problems, the law of demand for electric vehicle battery, the charging load law of the active space, lay the foundation for further study of large-scale electric vehicle access impact on power system; at the same time it is necessary for the electric vehicle charging station distribution and service capacity in the construction of centralized service station study, profitability, in order to realize the actual investment before construction for layout, station capacity allocation plan service capacity prediction, profitability estimates for layout optimization, to lay the foundation for the study in optimizing the allocation of resources and other issues.
The main work and innovation results of this paper are as follows:
(1) in the premise of the vehicle driving rules and, combined with the electric vehicle charging mode for electric power to the two characteristics of the way, using Monte Carlo method to realize the vehicle battery, changes in demand, to supplement the behavior of electrical timing simulation, the number of large-scale electric vehicles in electric mode battery demand rules and minimum reserve battery in the scenario set, electricity demand rule in the charging mode and plug charging charging and charging load law, for the active space for electric two modes. The travel distance of travel time, vehicle in one day in each simulation, each time the speed of random variables are extracted, driving, clear the specific electric vehicle quiescent period of time in a day, so the electric vehicle power consumption process is described, based on the electric vehicle for electricity Model, different characteristics of the charging mode, the remaining power combined with the vehicle, parking time and other factors, with the specific time demand analysis of vehicles. A combination of electric vehicles in the simulation with a regular power demand, and consider the reserve battery cycle for electric mode, minimum battery reserve requirements, and the electric vehicle charging mode can the network time, two kinds of power are of electric vehicles. The research is carried out orderly charging of electric vehicle control, capacity planning of electric vehicle charging facilities, electric vehicles and power grid interactive technology (V2G), renewable energy consumption, electric vehicle load on power load, power quality, based on power grid the influence of economic operation.
(2) proposed a city distribution program in a region on the cost calculation method. Considering the vehicle density differences and regional differences in the road network construction, establish the directed graph transferred to two tree traversal, in order to determine the optimal path and optimal behavior model of electric vehicle station through the timing simulation on the behavior of the vehicle, the realization of the calculation circuit cost change distribution program, and studied the change on the cost of power plant on the circuit layout of the service capacity and the effect of the average load for power plants. Classified by treat analysis of regional road network information, will be simplified as grid information, vehicle location within the region the destination location, to describe the spatial relationship of the three station location, within the region to achieve a transfer station layout scheme on the cost calculation, and based on the areas of a city of cloth The service capacity of the point plan is studied. The research is the basis for optimizing the layout of the power station, changing the capacity of the power station, and estimating the profit of the distribution plan, and at the same time, this method can also provide a useful reference for the related research of the centralized charging station.
(3) established for the operation of the power station. The model established to maximize the service capacity as the goal, through the vehicle behavior and driving timing simulation. The demand for electricity as a source of input queuing, many types of equipment form queuing system services, and considers the vehicle waiting timeout exit in the model, the classification of equipment with Business Hours tou, under the planned charging, batteries, power plant operation model for minimum equipment investment, of different investment schemes in certain vehicle behavior under the service capacity, equipment idle rate, profitability, investment efficiency. In the power plant operation model for the establishment of the station, the maximum number of vehicles can serve as their operational objectives, and taking into account the station equipment recycling. Service equipment operation model for electric vehicles are electric vehicles for each variety of categories. The use of the length of time a class of equipment are subject to different distribution, with demand for electric vehicles, only when it obtained all the necessary equipment will be started after service. The operation model of price in the situation, without an increase in the number of minimum reserve battery demand, will be part of the battery arrangement to the low price when charging, in order to reduce the operation cost for power plants. The study for the optimization problem of power plant equipment, improve profitability and investment efficiency can also lay the foundation for electric vehicle charging station centralized charging mode, distributed charging pile construction can provide a reference for related research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM910.6;U469.72

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