本文關(guān)鍵詞： 風(fēng)電齒輪箱 平均故障間隔時(shí)間 最優(yōu)置信限法 Bayes方法 可靠性　出處：《蘭州理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：為了從可靠性數(shù)據(jù)的角度對(duì)風(fēng)電機(jī)組及其齒輪箱進(jìn)行可靠性分析,本文以30臺(tái)1.5MW水平軸風(fēng)電機(jī)組52個(gè)月的可靠性數(shù)據(jù)為研究對(duì)象,建立風(fēng)電機(jī)組平均故障間隔時(shí)間分布模型；基于風(fēng)電齒輪箱的無(wú)故障數(shù)據(jù),分別運(yùn)用Bayes方法和最優(yōu)置信限法進(jìn)行分析,預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)電齒輪箱的可靠度及可靠壽命；并收集風(fēng)電齒輪箱零部件相關(guān)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)信息,運(yùn)用Bayes方法或最優(yōu)置信限方法分析其可靠性。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： (1)風(fēng)電機(jī)組在實(shí)際工作中是可修復(fù)系統(tǒng),對(duì)于可修復(fù)系統(tǒng),壽命就是指平均故障間隔時(shí)間。所以,提取30臺(tái)風(fēng)電機(jī)組52個(gè)月的故障間隔時(shí)間,借助于MATLAB軟件分別對(duì)幾類壽命分布模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)估計(jì)、曲線擬合及假設(shè)檢驗(yàn),最終建立風(fēng)電機(jī)組平均故障間隔時(shí)間分布模型。 (2)由于這30臺(tái)風(fēng)電機(jī)組的齒輪箱在數(shù)據(jù)采集截止時(shí)間內(nèi)沒有發(fā)生故障,可靠性數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)為無(wú)故障數(shù)據(jù)。根據(jù)無(wú)故障數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)處理方法,選擇應(yīng)用Bayes方法和最優(yōu)置信限法,分別分析其在無(wú)故障數(shù)據(jù)情形下的可靠性,將兩種方法的估計(jì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較驗(yàn)證,并對(duì)最優(yōu)置信限法中置信水平的取值規(guī)律進(jìn)行了探討,最終得到風(fēng)電齒輪箱可靠度和可靠壽命預(yù)測(cè)。 (3)在經(jīng)過(guò)Bayes方法和最優(yōu)置信限法對(duì)風(fēng)電齒輪箱無(wú)故障數(shù)據(jù)分析研究后,通過(guò)有目的地收集相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù),根據(jù)所獲得的信息選取最優(yōu)置信限法分別在形狀參數(shù)未知與已知的兩種情況下,對(duì)風(fēng)電齒輪箱的幾類軸承進(jìn)行可靠性預(yù)測(cè)。 基于可靠性數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)現(xiàn)役風(fēng)電機(jī)組及其齒輪箱進(jìn)行可靠性分析預(yù)測(cè),更符合風(fēng)電機(jī)組實(shí)際運(yùn)行的情況,這將為風(fēng)電機(jī)組及其齒輪箱設(shè)計(jì)、制造及維修提供參考標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。同時(shí),為國(guó)產(chǎn)風(fēng)電齒輪箱在無(wú)故障數(shù)據(jù)的情形下的可靠性分析提供新的分析思路。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the reliability of wind turbine and its gearbox from the point of view of reliability data, this paper takes the reliability data of 30 1.5 MW horizontal shaft wind turbine units for 52 months as the research object, and establishes the average fault interval time distribution model of wind turbine units. Based on the fault free data of wind power gearbox, the reliability and reliability life of wind power gearbox are predicted by using Bayes method and optimal confidence limit method, and the relevant empirical information of wind power gearbox parts are collected. The Bayes method or the optimal confidence limit method are used to analyze its reliability. The main research contents are as follows:. Wind turbine is a repairable system in practice. For a repairable system, the life span of a repairable system is the mean time between failures. Therefore, a fault interval of 52 months is extracted from 30 wind turbines. With the help of MATLAB software, the parameter estimation, curve fitting and hypothesis test of several kinds of life distribution models are carried out, and finally, the average fault interval time distribution model of wind turbine is established. 2) since the gearbox of the 30 wind turbines has no fault within the data acquisition deadline, the reliability data is shown as no fault data. According to the relevant processing methods of the non-fault data, the Bayes method and the optimal confidence limit method are selected. The reliability of the method in the case of no fault data is analyzed, the estimation results of the two methods are compared and verified, and the rule of taking the confidence level in the optimal confidence limit method is discussed. Finally, the reliability and reliable life prediction of wind power gearbox are obtained. After analyzing and studying the non-fault data of wind power gearbox by Bayes method and optimal confidence limit method, the relevant empirical data are collected purposefully. According to the obtained information, the optimal confidence limit method is selected to predict the reliability of several kinds of bearings in wind power gearbox under the condition of unknown shape parameter and known shape parameter respectively. Based on the reliability data, the reliability analysis and prediction of the active wind turbine and its gearbox are more in line with the actual operation of the wind turbine, which will provide a reference standard for the design, manufacture and maintenance of the wind turbine and its gearbox. This paper provides a new analysis method for the reliability analysis of domestic wind power gearbox without fault data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM315

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