本文關(guān)鍵詞：海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 海上風(fēng)電 經(jīng)濟(jì)性 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 學(xué)習(xí)曲線 清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制 RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)

【摘要】：目前各國(guó)都爭(zhēng)相將新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)作為新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn),其中風(fēng)力發(fā)電以其相對(duì)成熟的技術(shù)和較低的成本得到世界各國(guó)的重視。海上風(fēng)電因其距離電力負(fù)荷中心較近、資源豐富等優(yōu)勢(shì)逐漸受到關(guān)注。對(duì)海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行研究,旨在為海上風(fēng)電發(fā)展的政策制定和海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的規(guī)劃與管理提供理論依據(jù)。 本文首先從規(guī)模、發(fā)展規(guī)劃、技術(shù)水平和政策支持等方面對(duì)國(guó)外及我國(guó)海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行對(duì)比和分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上著重對(duì)我國(guó)海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行SWOT分析,論述了目前具有的優(yōu)勢(shì)、劣勢(shì)、機(jī)遇和威脅。 其次,從技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)曲線、CDM清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制和政策三方面對(duì)其成本、收益和綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)性進(jìn)行了研究。通過技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)曲線研究學(xué)習(xí)效應(yīng)對(duì)海上風(fēng)電成本發(fā)展的影響,并擬合出相應(yīng)的技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)曲線對(duì)成本進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。以CDM項(xiàng)目的具體流程為基礎(chǔ)探討了CDM項(xiàng)目對(duì)海上風(fēng)電收益的影響以及碳價(jià)格變化的重要性。 再次,分析了財(cái)政、電價(jià)和并網(wǎng)政策對(duì)海上風(fēng)電長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)性的影響,構(gòu)建立了海上風(fēng)電經(jīng)濟(jì)性評(píng)價(jià)模型,并利用遺傳算法改進(jìn)了的RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)性進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)。 最后,以海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目前期資源評(píng)估到施工建設(shè)再到運(yùn)營(yíng)維護(hù)的邏輯,從風(fēng)資源評(píng)價(jià)、施工安裝、自然條件、設(shè)備與檢修、管理、政策與市場(chǎng)六個(gè)方面,分析了海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),采用遺傳算法改進(jìn)了的RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建了符合其自身特點(diǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型,并對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。
[Abstract]:At present, all countries are scrambling to take the new energy industry as the new economic growth point. Among them, wind power generation is paid more attention by the countries all over the world because of its relatively mature technology and low cost, and offshore wind power is close to the power load center. The economic efficiency and risk assessment of offshore wind power projects are studied in order to provide theoretical basis for the policy formulation of offshore wind power development and the planning and management of offshore wind power projects. In this paper, the scale, development planning, technical level and policy support of offshore wind power projects abroad and China are compared and analyzed. On this basis, the SWOT analysis of offshore wind power projects in China is emphasized, and the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats are discussed. Secondly, the cost of CDM clean development mechanism and policy is discussed from three aspects: technology learning curve and CDM clean development mechanism and policy. The effects of learning effect on the development of offshore wind power cost are studied through the technical learning curve. Based on the specific flow of CDM project, the influence of CDM project on offshore wind power revenue and the importance of carbon price change are discussed. Thirdly, the influence of finance, electricity price and grid connection policy on the long-term economy of offshore wind power is analyzed, and the evaluation model of offshore wind power economy is established. The RBF neural network improved by genetic algorithm is used to evaluate the economy. Finally, from the wind resource evaluation to construction construction to operational maintenance logic, from wind resource evaluation, construction installation, natural conditions, equipment and maintenance, management, policy and market six aspects. The risk of offshore wind power project is analyzed, and the risk evaluation model is constructed by using the improved RBF neural network based on genetic algorithm, and the model is verified.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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