本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于改進(jìn)的重要抽樣算法的輸電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 輸電系統(tǒng) 可靠性評(píng)估 蒙特卡洛法 改進(jìn)的重要抽樣法

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展,各行各業(yè)電力用戶對(duì)供電可靠性的要求越來(lái)越高,發(fā)生停電故障給人類帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響也就越來(lái)越大,保證安全可靠供電是電力系統(tǒng)的重中之重。面對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)日趨復(fù)雜的輸電網(wǎng)絡(luò),客觀、準(zhǔn)確、快速地對(duì)系統(tǒng)可靠供電能力進(jìn)行評(píng)估,可以全面評(píng)價(jià)電網(wǎng)可靠性,找到系統(tǒng)的可靠性薄弱環(huán)節(jié),為電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃、運(yùn)行和改進(jìn)提供數(shù)據(jù)支持,有著重要的意義。在各種可靠性評(píng)估方法中,蒙特卡洛法的應(yīng)用最為廣泛,尤其適用于大型電力系統(tǒng)的可靠性評(píng)估計(jì)算,因?yàn)槠涑闃哟螖?shù)與系統(tǒng)的規(guī)模無(wú)關(guān)。然而該方法最大的問(wèn)題在于,要想獲得較高精度的可靠性指標(biāo)需要進(jìn)行大量的抽樣計(jì)算,這種計(jì)算精度和計(jì)算速度之間的矛盾很大程度上限制了可靠性評(píng)估在實(shí)際運(yùn)用時(shí)的收斂速度。針對(duì)蒙特卡洛法的這一問(wèn)題,學(xué)者們提出了各種旨在通過(guò)降低方差加快收斂速度的抽樣算法,其中被認(rèn)為最有效的是重要抽樣法。該方法通過(guò)把系統(tǒng)內(nèi)元件的強(qiáng)迫停運(yùn)率擴(kuò)大k倍,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)元件失效情況的放大,提高抽樣效率。然而該方法通常被用于元件故障率相對(duì)較高的發(fā)電系統(tǒng),在現(xiàn)實(shí)輸電系統(tǒng)中,元件故障率較低、網(wǎng)絡(luò)可靠性較好,通過(guò)迭代求取最優(yōu)乘子k的算法收斂效果并不明顯,限制了該方法在輸電網(wǎng)絡(luò)工程中的應(yīng)用。本文在對(duì)以上問(wèn)題進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了適用于實(shí)際輸電系統(tǒng)的改進(jìn)重要抽樣法：在重要抽樣的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)最優(yōu)乘子k的取值和修正方式進(jìn)行改進(jìn),將抽樣分為預(yù)抽樣和正式抽樣兩步,通過(guò)對(duì)小樣本的預(yù)抽樣確定k的取值,然后正式抽樣計(jì)算系統(tǒng)的可靠性指標(biāo)。分別應(yīng)用常規(guī)蒙特卡洛法、重要抽樣法和改進(jìn)的重要抽樣法,對(duì)可靠性測(cè)試系統(tǒng)RBTS和IEEE-RTS的輸電部分進(jìn)行可靠性計(jì)算,分析比對(duì)計(jì)算結(jié)果和計(jì)算精度,驗(yàn)證了改進(jìn)算法的準(zhǔn)確性和高效性。為了測(cè)試改進(jìn)算法在工程應(yīng)用中的適用性,以某地區(qū)實(shí)際電網(wǎng)M為研究對(duì)象,分別用上述三種方法計(jì)算該電網(wǎng)整體以及各節(jié)點(diǎn)的可靠性指標(biāo),對(duì)比計(jì)算結(jié)果和精度,證明改進(jìn)算法在實(shí)際工程中應(yīng)用良好。最后,以該算法計(jì)算結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合M電網(wǎng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)和元件參數(shù)特點(diǎn),找出該地區(qū)電網(wǎng)可靠性薄弱的環(huán)節(jié),提出改進(jìn)可靠性的方案,并驗(yàn)證了這些方案的有效性。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, all walks of life power users on power supply reliability of the increasingly high demand, the negative impact of power outage brought to mankind is more and more big, to ensure safe and reliable power supply is the priority among priorities of the power system. In the face of the transmission network, the increasingly complex structure of objective, accurate, fast and reliable to evaluate power supply system, a comprehensive evaluation of reliability of power grid, find the weakness of system reliability for power system planning, operation and provide data support to improve, has important significance. In the evaluation of various methods of reliability, Monte Carlo method is the most widely used, especially suitable for reliability assessment of power system calculation, because the sampling the number and the scale of the system. However, this method is not the biggest problem, in order to obtain the reliability index of high precision required a lot of sampling This calculation, the contradiction between computational accuracy and computational speed greatly limits the reliability evaluation of the convergence speed in practical application. In order to solve the problem of Monte C Lofa, scholars have put forward various aims to reduce the variance of sampling algorithm to speed up the convergence rate, which is considered the most effective is the important sampling method. By this method the the system components of the forced outage rate of expansion of K times, to achieve amplification of component failure, improve the sampling efficiency. However, this method is usually used for power system component failure rate is relatively high, in the real transmission system, component failure rate is low, the network reliability, through the iterative convergence results from optimal multiplier K is not obvious, which restricts the application of this method in transmission network engineering. Based on above analysis, put forward for the actual transmission The improvement of the system of importance sampling method: Based on importance sampling on optimal value K and correction method was improved, the sample is divided into pre sampling and formal sampling two step, to determine the value of K by pre sampling of small samples, then the formal sampling calculation system reliability index using conventional Monte Carlo method respectively. And the importance sampling method and improved important sampling method, the transmission part of the reliability testing system of RBTS and IEEE-RTS for the calculation of reliability, analysis and comparison of calculation results and calculation accuracy, verify the accuracy and efficiency of the improved algorithm. In order to improve the applicability of the algorithm in the engineering application of the test in the practical power system M as the research object the whole power grid were calculated, and the reliability index of each node by the above three methods, comparing the results of calculation and accuracy in practical engineering shows that the improved algorithm should be used. Finally, based on the calculation results of the algorithm, combined with the characteristics of M power network topology and component parameters, we find out the weak links of the power grid in this area, and put forward the scheme of improving reliability, and verify the effectiveness of these schemes.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TM732

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本文編號(hào)：1417526