【摘要】：隨著我國城市化進程的加快,人們對于供電可靠性的要求也越來越高。停電時間也從原來的幾個小時縮短到現(xiàn)在的幾分鐘甚至是不間斷供電。配電網(wǎng)作為發(fā)電、輸電、變電、配電這一條供電系統(tǒng)的末端,發(fā)揮著和用戶對接、最后一公里的作用。配電網(wǎng)的可靠性直接影響著用戶用電的感受,也影響著用戶對于電網(wǎng)的評價,所以,如何提高配電網(wǎng)的可靠性成了我們必須面對的問題。中山市作為珠三角的中心地帶,是廣東電網(wǎng)的排頭兵,對于供電可靠性有著更高的需求。東區(qū)作為中山市的市中心,如何在配網(wǎng)可靠性已有較高水平的情況下繼續(xù)提高,是本文研究的背景。本文首先通過對中山市東區(qū)范圍內(nèi)變電站、10k V配電網(wǎng)網(wǎng)架結(jié)構(gòu)和10k V配網(wǎng)設(shè)備的分析,較為完善的評估了東區(qū)配電網(wǎng)現(xiàn)狀的基本情況及現(xiàn)狀,為研究問題提供了基本數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ),達到研究的初步目的。其次通過分析東區(qū)2015年及2016年的可靠性數(shù)據(jù),找到了影響東區(qū)配電網(wǎng)可靠性的關(guān)鍵因素--故障停電,并根據(jù)對故障停電的分析,結(jié)合東區(qū)近幾年的可靠性數(shù)據(jù),對東區(qū)配電網(wǎng)可靠性做出了評估,得出東區(qū)配電網(wǎng)故障停電的主要原因有變壓器故障,電纜故障,設(shè)備老化故障等,對東區(qū)配電網(wǎng)的可靠性進行了全面的評估。最后,用貝葉斯方法開展針對東區(qū)配電網(wǎng)可靠性分析和優(yōu)化及其改良措施。并根據(jù)相應(yīng)故障點制定了解決措施,例如低壓環(huán)網(wǎng)、電壓監(jiān)測、新建臺區(qū)、加強配網(wǎng)自動化建設(shè)等,以供今后的配電網(wǎng)建設(shè)和網(wǎng)架結(jié)構(gòu)改造借鑒,使東區(qū)配電網(wǎng)可靠性能夠進一步提高。再利用灰色預(yù)測法對2017年可靠性做出了預(yù)測,與2012-2016年指標做了對比。相信通過這些措施的實施,東區(qū)配網(wǎng)可靠性一定會有一個大的飛躍。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the demand for reliability of power supply is becoming higher and higher. Power outages have also been shortened from hours to minutes or even uninterrupted power. As the end of the power supply system, the distribution network plays the role of docking with the user and the last kilometer. The reliability of distribution network directly affects the feeling of power consumption and the evaluation of power grid. Therefore, how to improve the reliability of distribution network has become a problem we must face. As the center of Pearl River Delta, Zhongshan City is the vanguard of Guangdong Power Grid, which has higher demand for power supply reliability. As the city center of Zhongshan City, East District is the background of this paper, how to improve the reliability of distribution network at a high level. First of all, through the analysis of the substation, 10kV distribution network structure and 10kV distribution equipment in the eastern district of Zhongshan City, the basic situation and present situation of the distribution network in the eastern district are evaluated. It provides the basic data basis for the research and achieves the preliminary purpose of the research. Secondly, by analyzing the reliability data of the eastern region in 2015 and 2016, the paper finds out the key factor that affects the reliability of the eastern power distribution network, that is, the fault blackout. According to the analysis of the failure power failure, combined with the reliability data of the eastern region in recent years, The reliability of eastern distribution network is evaluated, and the main reasons of power outage are transformer fault, cable fault, equipment aging fault and so on. The reliability of eastern distribution network is comprehensively evaluated. Finally, the Bayesian method is used to analyze and optimize the reliability of the eastern distribution network and its improvement measures. According to the corresponding fault points, the solutions are made, such as low voltage loop network, voltage monitoring, building new station area, strengthening the automation construction of distribution network and so on, so as to provide reference for the future distribution network construction and network structure reconstruction. The reliability of the eastern distribution network can be further improved. The reliability of 2017 is forecasted by grey forecast method, and compared with the target of 2012-2016. I believe that through the implementation of these measures, Eastern distribution network reliability will be a big leap forward.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM732

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