【摘要】：隨著氣候變化、空氣污染等問(wèn)題的日益凸顯,石油、煤炭、天然氣等不可再生的化石能源供給與需求矛盾的日益突出,世界各國(guó)都在追尋綠色清潔、低碳環(huán)保的發(fā)展方式,風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電擁有資源豐富,發(fā)展迅速、技術(shù)成熟等優(yōu)勢(shì),是世界新能源研究領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)。隨著2006年《可再生能源法》的發(fā)布以及后續(xù)一系列支持新能源發(fā)展的政策出臺(tái),我國(guó)新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛,并網(wǎng)裝機(jī)規(guī)模、發(fā)電量持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng),電源結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化,到2016年,中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為世界風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量第一,光伏裝機(jī)容量和新增容量第一的國(guó)家,但是隨著全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力變大,電力需求增速變緩,新能源的消納問(wèn)題也逐漸惡化。在我國(guó)“三北”地區(qū)(包括華北、東北和西北地區(qū)),“棄風(fēng)”和“棄光”問(wèn)題尤為嚴(yán)重。其中,甘肅省作為典型的“三北”地區(qū)省份,其問(wèn)題非常具有代表性。以風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電為代表,本文在國(guó)內(nèi)外促進(jìn)新能源消納途徑研究現(xiàn)狀基礎(chǔ)上分析了甘肅省的新能源消納現(xiàn)狀,分別從省內(nèi)調(diào)峰能力,裝機(jī)容量、外送通道以及相關(guān)機(jī)制方面總結(jié)了甘肅省棄風(fēng)棄光的形成原因;同時(shí),本文指出目前甘肅省采取的諸如大用戶直接交易、自備電廠發(fā)電權(quán)交易以及外送交易等促進(jìn)新能源消納措施效果不佳,沒(méi)有從實(shí)質(zhì)上解決新能源的消納問(wèn)題;然后,在相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)上,本文針對(duì)甘肅省內(nèi)地消納和跨省外送兩種消納途徑創(chuàng)新性地建立了基于需求側(cè)響應(yīng)的新能源消納模型和風(fēng)光火聯(lián)合外送模型,結(jié)合甘肅省的電源結(jié)構(gòu)、日常負(fù)荷、外送約束等數(shù)據(jù),以社會(huì)效益最大化為目標(biāo)函數(shù),用lingo等軟件編程,在不同的場(chǎng)景下求出最優(yōu)解,并從各個(gè)角度對(duì)甘肅省新能源消納效果進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果顯示不同場(chǎng)景中,兩種模型都在不同程度上促進(jìn)了新能源消納,就地消納措施在夏季最有效,與火電聯(lián)合外送措施在冬季表現(xiàn)更有效,因此兩種消納措施在不同場(chǎng)景中存在一定的互補(bǔ)特性;最后,本文綜合兩種模型,建立了包含需求側(cè)響應(yīng)、就地消納和外送消納的甘肅省新能源消納優(yōu)化模型,對(duì)不同的季節(jié)場(chǎng)景進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的分析,在追求社會(huì)效益最大化的前提下,達(dá)到科學(xué)地分配就地消納和外送消納的目的,對(duì)甘肅省乃至全國(guó)新能源消納有一定的指導(dǎo)作用。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly prominent problems of climate change and air pollution, the contradiction between the supply and demand of non-renewable fossil energy, such as oil, coal and natural gas, has become increasingly prominent. Countries all over the world are pursuing the development of green and clean, low-carbon environmental protection. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation have rich resources, rapid development, mature technology and other advantages, it is a hot spot in the field of new energy research in the world. With the release of the Renewable Energy Law in 2006 and the promulgation of a series of policies to support the development of new energy, the new energy industry in China has developed rapidly, the scale of grid connection and installation, the continuous rapid growth of electricity generation, the continuous optimization of power supply structure, and the continuous optimization of power supply structure by 2016. China has become the world's largest wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity and new capacity of the first country, but as the national economic downward pressure becomes greater, the growth rate of electricity demand becomes slower, and the problem of new energy consumption is getting worse. In the "three north" areas of China (including North, Northeast and Northwest China), the problems of "abandoning wind" and "abandoning light" are especially serious. Among them, Gansu Province as a typical "three north" provinces, its problems are very representative. Taking wind power and photovoltaic power generation as the representative, this paper analyzes the current situation of new energy consumption in Gansu Province on the basis of domestic and international research on the ways to promote new energy consumption, respectively from the peak-shaving capacity and installed capacity of the province. This paper summarizes the causes of the abandonment of wind and light in Gansu Province, and points out the current direct transactions of large users in Gansu Province. The measures to promote new energy consumption, such as power right trading and outgoing trading of self-provided power plants, have not been effective, and have not substantially solved the problem of new energy consumption; then, on the basis of relevant literature, In this paper, a new energy absorption model based on demand-side response and a combined wind-fire transport model are established for the inland and trans-provincial ways of extinction in Gansu Province. Combined with the power supply structure and daily load of Gansu Province, the new energy consumption model and the combined wind-fire transport model are established in this paper. Taking the social benefit maximization as the objective function and using lingo and other software to program, the optimal solution is obtained under different scenarios, and the effects of new energy consumption in Gansu Province are analyzed from various angles. The results show that in different scenarios, The two models promote the new energy consumption in different degrees. The in-situ absorption measures are the most effective in summer, and the combined outputting measures with thermal power are more effective in winter. Therefore, the two kinds of absorption measures have some complementary characteristics in different scenarios. Finally, this paper synthesizes two kinds of models, establishes the Gansu Province new energy absorption optimization model which includes the demand side response, the local absorption and the outgoing energy absorption, carries on the detailed analysis to the different seasonal scene, under the premise of pursuing the social benefit maximization, To achieve the purpose of scientific distribution of local and outward absorption, it has a certain guiding role for Gansu province and even the whole country in new energy consumption.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2272853