【摘要】：通過對(duì)近年來電力事故的調(diào)查研究表明,繼電保護(hù)系統(tǒng)的非正常動(dòng)作是引起事故的主要原因之一,嚴(yán)重情況時(shí)可能造成地區(qū)大面積停電。由于繼電保護(hù)系統(tǒng)是保證電力系統(tǒng)安全、穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行的最重要一環(huán),如何保證其工作狀態(tài)極其可靠性就顯得尤為重要。當(dāng)前對(duì)于繼電保護(hù)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行質(zhì)量的檢測還只停留在硬件檢測上,不能對(duì)系統(tǒng)的各個(gè)方面進(jìn)行全面的質(zhì)量評(píng)估、狀態(tài)預(yù)測,存在一定的滯后性。如果能夠研制一套評(píng)估系統(tǒng),對(duì)于繼電保護(hù)設(shè)備的狀態(tài)及其可靠性發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行評(píng)估和預(yù)測,提前做好應(yīng)對(duì)繼電保護(hù)系統(tǒng)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的計(jì)劃,便能更好的保證繼電保護(hù)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)作的可靠性,提高電力系統(tǒng)的電能供應(yīng)效率和安全性。論文針對(duì)淮南市電力公司相關(guān)科研項(xiàng)目,詳細(xì)研究了繼電保護(hù)設(shè)備的運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù),通過分析故障設(shè)備、老化設(shè)備、退役設(shè)備的各項(xiàng)工作參數(shù),通過對(duì)大量的數(shù)據(jù)處理和統(tǒng)計(jì)提出了一種繼電保護(hù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估系統(tǒng)。該系統(tǒng)能夠模擬不同型號(hào)繼電保護(hù)設(shè)備在運(yùn)行過程中的失效率變化情況,并在評(píng)估設(shè)備運(yùn)行環(huán)境的基礎(chǔ)上,給出該設(shè)備當(dāng)前的運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并指導(dǎo)對(duì)該設(shè)備的檢修維護(hù)工作。在算法上,論文以三參數(shù)Weibull模型為基礎(chǔ),選取某地電力公司的實(shí)際繼電保護(hù)設(shè)備運(yùn)行參數(shù),包括設(shè)備基本信息、設(shè)備運(yùn)行情況、設(shè)備運(yùn)行參數(shù)、檢修及維護(hù)記錄等,利用最小二乘法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的處理擬合,獲取接近現(xiàn)實(shí)運(yùn)行情況的繼電保護(hù)設(shè)備失效率模型;在獲取設(shè)備失效率變化趨勢(shì)函數(shù)后,通過設(shè)備性質(zhì)及其運(yùn)行方式的重要性,制作相對(duì)應(yīng)的Markov模型,通過失效率預(yù)估值的大小,選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最小的模型參數(shù),對(duì)設(shè)備當(dāng)前運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估;針對(duì)所計(jì)算設(shè)備的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估值,參照電力公司相關(guān)規(guī)定及檢修策略,給出相應(yīng)的為何策略,用于指導(dǎo)繼電保護(hù)設(shè)備的檢修和維護(hù)工作。最后,通過Matlab的GUI界面系統(tǒng),對(duì)論文所構(gòu)建的系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行軟件的制作,同時(shí)對(duì)論文中的計(jì)算結(jié)果以及評(píng)估質(zhì)量進(jìn)行運(yùn)行和測試,并給出了評(píng)估設(shè)備的失效率參數(shù)質(zhì)量和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估值。在軟件運(yùn)行過程中,通過對(duì)實(shí)際在運(yùn)設(shè)備的評(píng)估計(jì)算,獲得了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估值以及檢修策略建議。系統(tǒng)的研究及軟件的制作對(duì)相關(guān)項(xiàng)目的起到了理論支撐和實(shí)際應(yīng)用的效果。
[Abstract]:Through the investigation and study of electric power accidents in recent years, it is shown that the abnormal operation of relay protection system is one of the main causes of the accidents. As the relay protection system is the most important part to ensure the safety and stability of the power system, it is very important to ensure the reliability of the system. At present, the inspection of the operation quality of relay protection system is still only on the hardware inspection, which can not evaluate the quality of all aspects of the system, state prediction, there is a certain lag. If a set of assessment systems can be developed to evaluate and predict the status of relay protection equipment and its reliability development trend, and to plan ahead to deal with the failure risk of relay protection systems, It can better guarantee the reliability of relay protection system and improve the efficiency and safety of power supply. According to the related scientific research projects of Huainan Electric Power Company, the paper studies the operation data of relay protection equipment in detail, and analyzes the working parameters of the faulty equipment, aging equipment and decommissioned equipment. A relay protection risk assessment system is put forward by processing and statistics of a large amount of data. The system can simulate the failure rate of different types of relay protection equipment during operation, and on the basis of evaluating the operating environment of the equipment, it can give the current operation risk of the equipment, and guide the maintenance and repair of the equipment. In the algorithm, based on the three-parameter Weibull model, the paper selects the actual relay protection equipment operation parameters of a certain power company, including the basic information of the equipment, the operation situation of the equipment, the operation parameters of the equipment, the maintenance and maintenance record and so on. The failure rate model of relay protection equipment is obtained by using the least square method to fit the data, and after obtaining the trend function of equipment failure rate, the importance of equipment property and operation mode is obtained. Making the corresponding Markov model, selecting the model parameters with the minimum risk through the size of the pre-estimate of failure rate, evaluating the risk of current operation of the equipment, and evaluating the calculated value of the risk of the equipment. According to the relevant regulations and maintenance strategies of the power company, the corresponding strategies are given to guide the maintenance and repair of relay protection equipment. Finally, through the GUI interface system of Matlab, the software of the system is made, and the calculation results and evaluation quality of the paper are run and tested. The failure rate parameter quality and risk evaluation value of the equipment are also given. In the course of software operation, the corresponding risk evaluation value and maintenance strategy suggestions are obtained through the evaluation and calculation of the actual equipment in operation. The systematic research and the software production have played the theory support and the practical application effect to the related project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM774

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本文編號(hào)：2262392