【摘要】：高精度的風(fēng)速預(yù)測對風(fēng)電發(fā)展具有重要意義。目前針對風(fēng)速預(yù)測研究大多集中于兩方面:第一,采用中尺度數(shù)值模式進行風(fēng)速預(yù)報,但其因計算量大具有計算時長和硬件設(shè)備的局限性,并且單一中尺度模式預(yù)報效果已不能滿足當(dāng)前預(yù)測精度需求,需要進一步引入學(xué)習(xí)模型對其預(yù)報風(fēng)速進行訂正和預(yù)測;第二,采用學(xué)習(xí)模型進行風(fēng)速預(yù)測,現(xiàn)采用的學(xué)習(xí)方法大多為淺層機器學(xué)習(xí)方法,學(xué)習(xí)能力有限,預(yù)測精度還有待進一步提高,而深度學(xué)習(xí)模型具有更深層次的學(xué)習(xí)能力,能更好地描述目標(biāo)物體。鑒于此,為了對中尺度WRF(Weather Research and Forecast,天氣研究與預(yù)報)模式進行并行優(yōu)化和提高風(fēng)速預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確率,本文主要做了以下三個工作:(1)WRF模式風(fēng)速預(yù)報效果評估:首先采用修正海拔高度后的地形資料對WRF模式進行風(fēng)力模擬,得出修正數(shù)據(jù)在山地等復(fù)雜地形下對WRF模式具有一定影響的結(jié)果。通過獲取的簡單地形下某70m高測風(fēng)塔的實際測風(fēng)數(shù)據(jù),對WRF模式重新計算后輸出的氣壓、氣溫、風(fēng)速、風(fēng)向四個氣象要素預(yù)報結(jié)果進行了全面檢測和分析,結(jié)果表明,WRF模式預(yù)報與實測數(shù)據(jù)具有一定的整體相關(guān)性且符合建立DBN(Deep Belief Nets,深度信念網(wǎng)絡(luò))風(fēng)速預(yù)測模型的需求。(2)WRF模式的并行優(yōu)化:分別搭建了多機多核集群和小型塔式工作站兩種并行計算平臺,采用三種并行方式對WRF模式進行模擬計算,獲得了較優(yōu)的并行效能;并利用并行效率、加速比、價格等參數(shù)分別對并行方式和計算平臺進行對比分析,以便用戶能根據(jù)計算需要合理選擇更高效的并行方式和計算平臺。(3)構(gòu)建基于WRF的DBN風(fēng)速預(yù)測模型:為提高WRF模式風(fēng)速預(yù)報的準(zhǔn)確率,引入深度學(xué)習(xí)模型DBN,該模型具有先無監(jiān)督后有監(jiān)督學(xué)習(xí)的優(yōu)點,通過將WRF模式風(fēng)速預(yù)報結(jié)果與實測數(shù)據(jù)作為輸入對深度信念網(wǎng)絡(luò)進行逐層訓(xùn)練,構(gòu)建了基于WRF的DBN風(fēng)速預(yù)測模型,并進行仿真實驗。以上實驗驗證了本文對WRF模式并行優(yōu)化的有效性和適用性,以及通過相關(guān)對比實驗證明了本文構(gòu)建的風(fēng)速預(yù)測模型具有更深層次的學(xué)習(xí)能力,獲得了更高的預(yù)測精度且更具應(yīng)用性。
[Abstract]:High precision wind speed prediction is of great significance to wind power development. At present, the researches on wind speed prediction are mainly focused on two aspects: first, the mesoscale numerical model is used for wind speed prediction, but due to the large amount of calculation, it has the limitations of long calculation time and hardware equipment. And the prediction effect of single mesoscale model can no longer meet the demand of current forecast precision, so it is necessary to further introduce learning model to revise and forecast the predicted wind speed. Secondly, the learning model is used to predict the wind speed. Most of the current learning methods are shallow machine learning, with limited learning ability, and the prediction accuracy needs to be further improved, while the depth learning model has deeper learning ability and can better describe the target object. In view of this, in order to optimize the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecast, weather research and forecast model in parallel and improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction, The main work of this paper is as follows: (1) the wind speed prediction effect of WRF model is evaluated. Firstly, the wind model of WRF is simulated with the topographic data of modified altitude. The results show that the modified data have a certain influence on the WRF model under the complex terrain such as mountainous area. Based on the actual wind data obtained from a 70 m high wind tower under a simple terrain, the forecasted results of the four meteorological elements such as air pressure, air temperature, wind speed and wind direction after recalculating the WRF model are comprehensively detected and analyzed. The results show that the prediction of WRFmodel and the measured data have a certain overall correlation and accord with the demand of establishing DBN (Deep Belief Nets, depth belief network) wind speed prediction model. (2) parallel optimization of WRF model: the multi-machine multi-core cluster and the small cluster are built respectively. Two parallel computing platforms for tower workstations, Three parallel methods are used to simulate and calculate the WRF mode, and the parallel efficiency, speedup ratio, price and other parameters are used to compare and analyze the parallel mode and the computing platform, respectively, and the parallel efficiency, speedup ratio, price and other parameters are used to compare and analyze the parallel mode and the computing platform. So that users can reasonably select a more efficient parallel mode and computing platform according to the needs of computing. (3) build the DBN wind speed prediction model based on WRF: to improve the accuracy of WRF model wind speed prediction, The depth learning model (DBN,) is introduced. The model has the advantages of unsupervised learning and supervised learning. The depth belief network is trained layer by using the wind speed prediction results of WRF model and the measured data as input. A DBN wind speed prediction model based on WRF is constructed and simulated. The above experiments verify the validity and applicability of this paper to the parallel optimization of WRF model, and prove that the wind speed prediction model constructed in this paper has deeper learning ability. Higher prediction accuracy and more application are obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM614

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