【摘要】：在風(fēng)功率預(yù)測(cè)誤差服從正態(tài)分布的基礎(chǔ)上,首先,提出了在給定置信水平、最大允許誤差下最小樣本容量的計(jì)算方法,以及在給定誤差范圍、樣本容量下估計(jì)值置信水平的計(jì)算方法。其次,針對(duì)典型顯著性水平、誤差范圍進(jìn)行分析,論證了當(dāng)樣本容量較小時(shí),樣本統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)置信水平低,無(wú)法代表總體指標(biāo)。最后,提出了計(jì)及樣本容量合理性的日前風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率考核算法,實(shí)際算例表明,所提考核算法更科學(xué)合理,避免了不合理的考核罰款。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the wind power prediction error obeying normal distribution, the calculation method of minimum sample size under given confidence level and maximum allowable error and the calculation method of confidence level under given error range and sample size are proposed. Secondly, the typical significance level and error range are analyzed and proved. When the sample size is small, the confidence level of the statistical indicators is low, which can not represent the overall indicators. Finally, an assessment algorithm for the accuracy of day-ahead wind power forecasting considering the rationality of the sample size is proposed. The practical example shows that the proposed assessment algorithm is more scientific and reasonable, and the unreasonable assessment penalty is avoided.
【作者單位】： 南京南瑞繼保電氣有限公司;
【分類號(hào)】：TM614

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本文編號(hào)：2216656