【摘要】：光伏發(fā)電因其清潔無污染受到了各國的青睞。但同時(shí)因其輸出功率的隨機(jī)性和波動(dòng)性,使得當(dāng)光伏電站并網(wǎng)后會(huì)對(duì)公用電網(wǎng)造成一定的沖擊。這對(duì)電網(wǎng)的正常運(yùn)行極其不利。因此對(duì)并網(wǎng)型光伏電站的發(fā)電功率進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的短期預(yù)測(cè),有利于電力調(diào)度部門合理分配和規(guī)劃光伏能源和常規(guī)能源所占的比重,有利于及時(shí)調(diào)整調(diào)度計(jì)劃,使得電力系統(tǒng)以安全、穩(wěn)定、經(jīng)濟(jì)的方式運(yùn)行。本文在大量閱讀國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,采用甘肅某光伏電站的歷史數(shù)據(jù)作為研究對(duì)象,并利用HS-ESN模型建立了預(yù)測(cè)模型。然后對(duì)該電站進(jìn)行了光伏發(fā)電功率的短期預(yù)測(cè)分析。最后,通過C#與MATLAB的混編,介紹了光伏發(fā)電功率短期預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)�；谏衔拿枋�,本文的研究內(nèi)容主要包括以下幾個(gè)方面:首先,利用MATLAB建立的光伏電池仿真模型梳理了光伏電池的輸出特性,分析了太陽輻照強(qiáng)度和溫度對(duì)光伏發(fā)電功率的影響,進(jìn)一步確定了影響光伏發(fā)電功率的主要因素。然后將各影響因素組成特征向量,利用相似日選擇算法提取相似日和訓(xùn)練樣本。其次,在深入研究了回聲狀態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(Echo State Network,ESN)算法的前提下,提出了和聲搜索(Harmony Search,HS)算法優(yōu)化回聲狀態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)算法的混合算法。本文利用HS算法優(yōu)化ESN算法的儲(chǔ)備池參數(shù),有效提高了ESN算法的精度,并將HS-ESN算法應(yīng)用到光伏發(fā)電功率短期預(yù)測(cè)問題中,通過不同預(yù)測(cè)模型分別預(yù)測(cè)不同天氣類型下的光伏發(fā)電功率,驗(yàn)證了引入相似日選擇算法的有效性,同時(shí)表明了HS-ESN模型的性能更優(yōu)于單一的ESN模型和目前常用的其他幾種模型。最后,根據(jù)本文提出的預(yù)測(cè)模型和方法,設(shè)計(jì)出了一個(gè)光伏發(fā)電功率短期預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng),并對(duì)該系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了需求分析和結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)。該預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)具備光伏發(fā)電功率短期預(yù)測(cè)的基本模塊,包括登錄界面及數(shù)據(jù)導(dǎo)入模塊、發(fā)電功率短期預(yù)測(cè)模塊、報(bào)表統(tǒng)計(jì)模塊、數(shù)據(jù)查詢及輸出模塊,因此具有一定的實(shí)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Photovoltaic power generation is favored by many countries because of its clean and pollution-free. However, because of the randomness and fluctuation of the output power, the photovoltaic power station will have a certain impact on the public power grid when it is connected to the grid. This is extremely detrimental to the normal operation of the power grid. Therefore, the accurate short-term prediction of the generation power of grid-connected photovoltaic power stations is beneficial to the rational distribution and planning of the proportion of photovoltaic and conventional energy in the power dispatching department, and to the timely adjustment of the dispatching plan. Make the power system run in a safe, stable and economical way. Based on a large number of domestic and foreign literatures, this paper takes the historical data of a photovoltaic power plant in Gansu as the research object, and establishes a prediction model by using the HS-ESN model. Then the short-term prediction analysis of PV power generation is carried out. Finally, by mixing C # and MATLAB, the design of PV power short-term prediction system is introduced. Based on the above description, the research contents of this paper mainly include the following aspects: firstly, the output characteristics of photovoltaic cells are combed by using the simulation model established by MATLAB. The influence of solar radiation intensity and temperature on photovoltaic power generation is analyzed, and the main factors affecting photovoltaic power generation are determined. Then each factor is composed of feature vector and the similar day selection algorithm is used to extract the similar day and training sample. Secondly, based on the in-depth study of echo state network (Echo State Network) algorithm, a hybrid algorithm is proposed to optimize echo state network algorithm based on Harmony search (HS) algorithm. In this paper, HS algorithm is used to optimize the reserve cell parameters of ESN algorithm, and the precision of ESN algorithm is improved effectively. The HS-ESN algorithm is applied to the short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation. The effectiveness of introducing the similar day selection algorithm is verified by forecasting PV power under different weather types by different prediction models. The performance of HS-ESN model is better than that of single ESN model and other models commonly used at present at the same time the performance of HS-ESN model is better than that of single ESN model and other commonly used models. Finally, according to the prediction model and method proposed in this paper, a PV power short-term forecasting system is designed, and the demand analysis and structure design of the system are carried out. The prediction system has the basic modules of short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation, including login interface and data import module, short-term power generation prediction module, report statistics module, data query and output module, so it has certain practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM615

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本文編號(hào)：2130859