本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 + AHP��； 參考：《長春工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源缺乏推動(dòng)國家對(duì)新能源的重視和發(fā)展,越來越多的人開始注意能源問題,光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。肇東市是太陽能資源比較豐富的地區(qū),當(dāng)?shù)卣岢鲆虻刂埔?發(fā)展新能源,帶動(dòng)企業(yè)積極參與新能源建設(shè)活動(dòng)。肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目地理環(huán)境優(yōu)越,光照強(qiáng)度高,日照時(shí)間長提供了良好的自然環(huán)境。肇東市隸屬于綏化市,光伏企業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,目前已經(jīng)建立基礎(chǔ)配套項(xiàng)目10個(gè),總投資額度達(dá)到60億元,且擁有大批研發(fā)水平高、創(chuàng)新能力高的太陽能電池研發(fā)企業(yè),并且與高校建立了產(chǎn)學(xué)研合作,為肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施提供了良好的環(huán)境。但由于光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目屬于新技術(shù),目前處于行業(yè)發(fā)展初期,項(xiàng)目在實(shí)施過程中可以借鑒的管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)較少,依然存在一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目是當(dāng)?shù)卣С中皂?xiàng)目,該項(xiàng)目建成后具有試點(diǎn)作用,會(huì)影響后期其他企業(yè)的決策。因此肇東光伏屋頂發(fā)電項(xiàng)目對(duì)于肇東市新能源企業(yè)的發(fā)展,乃至整個(gè)新能源行業(yè)的發(fā)展都具有一定的影響,加強(qiáng)項(xiàng)目管理,注重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,是實(shí)現(xiàn)肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目綜合效益的重要路徑。文章分為六個(gè)章節(jié),首先,介紹了研究意義和研究目的,指出對(duì)肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目的研究具有現(xiàn)實(shí)操作意義和理論指導(dǎo)意義。介紹了國內(nèi)外對(duì)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理逐步發(fā)展的研究現(xiàn)狀,指出目前國內(nèi)已將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理引入到項(xiàng)目整體管理中,并取得了顯著成效。其次,介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本內(nèi)涵,指出了常用的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的流程,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別,列舉了經(jīng)過科學(xué)證明并廣泛應(yīng)用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)的方法,提到德爾菲法和頭腦風(fēng)暴法是常用于進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的方法。目前可以用于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理者進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的方法較多,但是單一的評(píng)價(jià)方法大多數(shù)具有局限性。第三,對(duì)肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行分析,采用專家打分法,結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)綜述法和項(xiàng)目實(shí)地調(diào)研法,對(duì)項(xiàng)目存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源進(jìn)行分析,從經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、市場(chǎng)、管理和環(huán)境五個(gè)維度識(shí)別出項(xiàng)目面臨的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源。第四,對(duì)肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),建立模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,通過AHP法獲得項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的權(quán)重,結(jié)合模糊評(píng)價(jià)法得到判斷矩陣,進(jìn)而得出評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)論,按照最大隸屬度原則得出,肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)等級(jí)為V4嚴(yán)重。因此應(yīng)當(dāng)采取一定的應(yīng)對(duì)策略,減少項(xiàng)目中潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率或者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響程度。第五,借鑒風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,采用科學(xué)合理的應(yīng)對(duì)策略,指出對(duì)于有差異性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別應(yīng)當(dāng)采取有針對(duì)性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略,針對(duì)同一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能采取多種應(yīng)對(duì)策略,在采取策略減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來的損害時(shí)應(yīng)當(dāng)充分考慮項(xiàng)目的綜合效益,追求項(xiàng)目整理利益和綜合效益最大。第六章結(jié)論部分,指出文章的研究結(jié)論,用于指導(dǎo)肇東市光伏屋頂項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理者進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,并指出了文章研究的不足和改進(jìn)策略。
[Abstract]:Lack of energy promotes national attention and development of new energy, more and more people begin to pay attention to energy problems, photovoltaic power generation projects emerge as the times require. Zhaodong City is rich in solar energy resources, the local government proposes to adapt to local conditions, develop new energy, and drive enterprises to actively participate in new energy construction activities. Zhaodong photovoltaic roof project has excellent geographical environment, high illumination intensity and long sunshine time to provide a good natural environment. Zhaodong City belongs to Suihua City. Photovoltaic enterprises have developed rapidly. At present, they have established 10 basic supporting projects, with a total investment quota of 6 billion yuan, and have a large number of solar cell R & D enterprises with high R & D level and high innovation capability. The cooperation with colleges and universities provides a good environment for the implementation of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city. However, because photovoltaic power generation project is a new technology, it is in the early stage of industry development, and the management experience can be used for reference in the implementation process of the project, and there are still some risks. Zhaodong photovoltaic roof project is a local government support project, which has a pilot role after completion, which will affect the later decision-making of other enterprises. Therefore, the Zhaodong photovoltaic roof power generation project has a certain impact on the development of new energy enterprises in Zhaodong city, and even the development of the whole new energy industry, strengthening project management and paying attention to risk management. It is an important way to realize the comprehensive benefit of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city. The paper is divided into six chapters. Firstly, the significance and purpose of the research are introduced, and it is pointed out that the research on photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong has practical and theoretical significance. This paper introduces the research status of risk management at home and abroad, and points out that risk management has been introduced into the whole project management in China and has achieved remarkable results. Secondly, it introduces the basic connotation of risk management, and points out the process of project risk management, risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk identification. This paper lists the methods of risk identification and risk estimation which have been proved by science and are widely used. It is mentioned that Delphi method and brainstorming method are often used for risk identification. At present, there are many methods that can be used for risk assessment by risk managers, but most of the single evaluation methods have limitations. Third, analyze the photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city, adopt the expert scoring method, combine the literature review method and the project field investigation method, analyze the risk source of the project, from economy, technology, market, The five dimensions of management and environment identify the potential sources of risk faced by the project. Fourthly, the risk source of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city is evaluated, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established, the weight of project risk factors is obtained by AHP method, the judgment matrix is obtained by combining fuzzy evaluation method, and the evaluation conclusion is obtained. According to the principle of maximum membership, the risk evaluation grade of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city is V _ 4 serious. Therefore, some countermeasures should be adopted to reduce the probability of the occurrence of potential risk or the degree of risk impact in the project. Fifthly, draw lessons from the results of risk assessment, adopt scientific and reasonable coping strategies, and point out that we should adopt targeted risk coping strategies for different risk categories, and may adopt multiple coping strategies for the same kind of risk. The comprehensive benefit of the project should be fully considered when adopting the strategy to reduce the damage caused by the risk, and the project consolidation benefit and the comprehensive benefit should be pursued the greatest. The last part of chapter six points out the conclusion of the paper, which is used to guide the risk management of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city, and points out the deficiency of the research and the improvement strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長春工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;F272.3;TM615

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