本文選題：風險管理 + AHP��； 參考：《長春工業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源缺乏推動國家對新能源的重視和發(fā)展,越來越多的人開始注意能源問題,光伏發(fā)電項目應運而生。肇東市是太陽能資源比較豐富的地區(qū),當?shù)卣岢鲆虻刂埔?發(fā)展新能源,帶動企業(yè)積極參與新能源建設活動。肇東市光伏屋頂項目地理環(huán)境優(yōu)越,光照強度高,日照時間長提供了良好的自然環(huán)境。肇東市隸屬于綏化市,光伏企業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,目前已經建立基礎配套項目10個,總投資額度達到60億元,且擁有大批研發(fā)水平高、創(chuàng)新能力高的太陽能電池研發(fā)企業(yè),并且與高校建立了產學研合作,為肇東市光伏屋頂項目的實施提供了良好的環(huán)境。但由于光伏發(fā)電項目屬于新技術,目前處于行業(yè)發(fā)展初期,項目在實施過程中可以借鑒的管理經驗較少,依然存在一定的風險。肇東市光伏屋頂項目是當?shù)卣С中皂椖?該項目建成后具有試點作用,會影響后期其他企業(yè)的決策。因此肇東光伏屋頂發(fā)電項目對于肇東市新能源企業(yè)的發(fā)展,乃至整個新能源行業(yè)的發(fā)展都具有一定的影響,加強項目管理,注重風險管理,是實現(xiàn)肇東市光伏屋頂項目綜合效益的重要路徑。文章分為六個章節(jié),首先,介紹了研究意義和研究目的,指出對肇東市光伏屋頂項目的研究具有現(xiàn)實操作意義和理論指導意義。介紹了國內外對于風險管理逐步發(fā)展的研究現(xiàn)狀,指出目前國內已將風險管理引入到項目整體管理中,并取得了顯著成效。其次,介紹了風險管理的基本內涵,指出了常用的項目風險管理的流程,風險識別、風險估計、風險評價和風險識別,列舉了經過科學證明并廣泛應用的風險識別和風險估計的方法,提到德爾菲法和頭腦風暴法是常用于進行風險識別的方法。目前可以用于風險管理者進行風險評價的方法較多,但是單一的評價方法大多數(shù)具有局限性。第三,對肇東市光伏屋頂項目進行分析,采用專家打分法,結合文獻綜述法和項目實地調研法,對項目存在的風險源進行分析,從經濟、技術、市場、管理和環(huán)境五個維度識別出項目面臨的潛在風險源。第四,對肇東市光伏屋頂項目的風險源進行評價,建立模糊綜合評價模型,通過AHP法獲得項目風險因素的權重,結合模糊評價法得到判斷矩陣,進而得出評價結論,按照最大隸屬度原則得出,肇東市光伏屋頂項目的風險評價等級為V4嚴重。因此應當采取一定的應對策略,減少項目中潛在風險發(fā)生的概率或者風險影響程度。第五,借鑒風險評價結果,采用科學合理的應對策略,指出對于有差異性的風險類別應當采取有針對性的風險應對策略,針對同一種風險可能采取多種應對策略,在采取策略減少風險帶來的損害時應當充分考慮項目的綜合效益,追求項目整理利益和綜合效益最大。第六章結論部分,指出文章的研究結論,用于指導肇東市光伏屋頂項目風險管理者進行風險管理,并指出了文章研究的不足和改進策略。
[Abstract]:Lack of energy promotes national attention and development of new energy, more and more people begin to pay attention to energy problems, photovoltaic power generation projects emerge as the times require. Zhaodong City is rich in solar energy resources, the local government proposes to adapt to local conditions, develop new energy, and drive enterprises to actively participate in new energy construction activities. Zhaodong photovoltaic roof project has excellent geographical environment, high illumination intensity and long sunshine time to provide a good natural environment. Zhaodong City belongs to Suihua City. Photovoltaic enterprises have developed rapidly. At present, they have established 10 basic supporting projects, with a total investment quota of 6 billion yuan, and have a large number of solar cell R & D enterprises with high R & D level and high innovation capability. The cooperation with colleges and universities provides a good environment for the implementation of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city. However, because photovoltaic power generation project is a new technology, it is in the early stage of industry development, and the management experience can be used for reference in the implementation process of the project, and there are still some risks. Zhaodong photovoltaic roof project is a local government support project, which has a pilot role after completion, which will affect the later decision-making of other enterprises. Therefore, the Zhaodong photovoltaic roof power generation project has a certain impact on the development of new energy enterprises in Zhaodong city, and even the development of the whole new energy industry, strengthening project management and paying attention to risk management. It is an important way to realize the comprehensive benefit of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city. The paper is divided into six chapters. Firstly, the significance and purpose of the research are introduced, and it is pointed out that the research on photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong has practical and theoretical significance. This paper introduces the research status of risk management at home and abroad, and points out that risk management has been introduced into the whole project management in China and has achieved remarkable results. Secondly, it introduces the basic connotation of risk management, and points out the process of project risk management, risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk identification. This paper lists the methods of risk identification and risk estimation which have been proved by science and are widely used. It is mentioned that Delphi method and brainstorming method are often used for risk identification. At present, there are many methods that can be used for risk assessment by risk managers, but most of the single evaluation methods have limitations. Third, analyze the photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city, adopt the expert scoring method, combine the literature review method and the project field investigation method, analyze the risk source of the project, from economy, technology, market, The five dimensions of management and environment identify the potential sources of risk faced by the project. Fourthly, the risk source of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city is evaluated, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established, the weight of project risk factors is obtained by AHP method, the judgment matrix is obtained by combining fuzzy evaluation method, and the evaluation conclusion is obtained. According to the principle of maximum membership, the risk evaluation grade of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city is V _ 4 serious. Therefore, some countermeasures should be adopted to reduce the probability of the occurrence of potential risk or the degree of risk impact in the project. Fifthly, draw lessons from the results of risk assessment, adopt scientific and reasonable coping strategies, and point out that we should adopt targeted risk coping strategies for different risk categories, and may adopt multiple coping strategies for the same kind of risk. The comprehensive benefit of the project should be fully considered when adopting the strategy to reduce the damage caused by the risk, and the project consolidation benefit and the comprehensive benefit should be pursued the greatest. The last part of chapter six points out the conclusion of the paper, which is used to guide the risk management of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city, and points out the deficiency of the research and the improvement strategy.
【學位授予單位】：長春工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;F272.3;TM615

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