危險貨物運輸,尤其是原油,通過船舶從一個地方轉(zhuǎn)運至別處,對全球經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。與此同時,由于自然災(zāi)害、人為等因素,各主要海域的船舶水運事故頻率大幅上升,這其中就包括船舶碰撞。油輪發(fā)生碰撞事故,首要的威脅是船員的人身財產(chǎn)安全,并有可能造成當(dāng)?shù)丨h(huán)境污染。本文主要通過國際海事組織（IMO）的正式安全評估（FSA）,對緬甸皎漂深水港內(nèi)的雙層殼油輪碰撞事故進行定量風(fēng)險評估,利用ANSYS 14.0軟件的顯示動力學(xué)模塊,通過碰撞模型,模擬各型油輪（VLCC、蘇伊士型、阿芙拉型、巴拿馬型等）真實尺寸的碰撞,預(yù)測碰撞事故對船體結(jié)構(gòu)損害情況,并分析原油泄漏入海可能的量,然后根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)赜洼嗩愋�、船舶流量、水文等�?shù)據(jù),以及相關(guān)歷史事故統(tǒng)計,分析油輪發(fā)生碰撞的頻率、污染物泄漏頻率、船體損害頻率和船員死亡頻率等。油輪碰撞事故后果分析同樣重要,本文通過蒙特卡洛模擬,定量化的分析十萬次的隨機變量事件,盡可能的將事故后果造成的環(huán)境損害、社會和經(jīng)濟損害,用貨幣損失的方式呈現(xiàn)出來,直觀感受某次油輪事故的危害程度。統(tǒng)計每個可能情境的風(fēng)險后,分析總的風(fēng)險潛在人命損失（PLL）、潛在污染損失（PLC）和潛在財產(chǎn)損失（PLP）... 

【文章來源】：大連海事大學(xué)遼寧省 211工程院校

【文章頁數(shù)】：70 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Aims and objectives
    1.3 Thesis outline
    1.4 Literature review
    1.5 Research study area
Chapter 2 Hazardous Identification
    2.1 Modeling of target structures
    2.2 Ship to ship collision simulation(ANSYS simulation)
    2.3 Analytical oil outflow calculation
        2.3.1 Side damage of a single hull tank spill model
        2.3.2 Side damage of a double hull tank spill model
    2.4 Three dimensional numerical simulation on oil leakage
    2.5 Analysis of simulation results
    2.6 Summary of results
Chapter 3 Collision Frequency Analysis
    3.1 Chapter overview
    3.2 Pedersen's Crossing Waterway Model
    3.3 Damage probability analysis
        3.3.1 Oil spill frequency
        3.3.2 Hull damage frequency
        3.3.3 Frequency for crews' fatality
    3.4 Summary of frequencies calculation results
Chapter 4 Collision Consequences Analysis
    4.1 Overview of consequences analysis
    4.2 Environmental metrics
    4.3 Economic Metrics
    4.4 Social Metrics
    4.5 Monte Carlo simulation for consequences costs and summary results
    4.6 Results summary
Chapter 5 Risk Assessment and Risk Acceptance Criteria
    5.1 Collision Risk Assessment
    5.2 ALARP border risk acceptance criteria
        5.2.1 Social risk acceptance criteria(F-N curve)
        5.2.2 Environmental risk acceptance criteria(F-T curve)
        5.2.3 Property risk criteria(F-P curve)
    5.3 Summary of risk level
Chapter 6 Conclusion and Recommendation
    6.1 Conclusion
    6.2 Recommendation
Reference
Appendix A: Probability distribution function for Panamax and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix B: Probability distribution function for Aframax and Container incident
Appendix C: Probability distribution function for Aframax and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix D: Probability distribution function for Suezmax and Container incident
Appendix E: Probability distribution function for Suezmax and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix F: Probability distribution function for VLCC and Container incident
Appendix G: Probability distribution function for VLCC and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix H: Coordinate values for F-N diagram
Appendix I: Coordinate values for F-P diagram
Appendix J: Coordinate values for F-T diagram
Acknowledgement
Author Introduction
Published Papers during Degree Study



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