城市公共交通分擔率的動態(tài)研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-12 14:27
【摘要】：隨著城市規(guī)模日益膨脹,人口與社會活動的大規(guī)模集聚使得日常交通量大幅度上升,道路日趨擁擠,城市交通問題成為限制城市發(fā)展的一個重要因素。公共交通作為城市人群出行的主要方式,其高效的運載能力和科學的路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃能夠有效緩解城市的擁堵。當面對人口密集、資源能源相對匱乏等問題,公交車作為路面公共交通的主體,應(yīng)當充分發(fā)揮其城市運載能力,提高其分擔率來緩解交通壓力。分擔率是客流在兩種或兩種以上交通方式或路線之間的分布概率,是各個交通方式或路線所占有市場份額的表示。以往的研究是關(guān)注如何發(fā)展城市軌道交通基礎(chǔ)建設(shè),或者是發(fā)展地下公共交通等去緩解交通擁堵,很多文獻都是從公交車和軌道交通(火車、地鐵等)著手來研究人群出行的選擇意愿,這時候卻忽視了路面各類公共交通本身也會存在一個相互影響作用的狀況。本文以路面公共交通中的公交車、出租車和三輪摩托為研究對象,從另一個角度去分析路面交通中公共交通工具之間分擔率的相互轉(zhuǎn)移,最終總結(jié)如何完善公交公司運營水平的手段,使其能夠發(fā)揮最大的運載能力來增加公交車的分擔率。本文從實際調(diào)查出發(fā),設(shè)計調(diào)查問卷來得到各類公共交通工具質(zhì)量屬性之間的相關(guān)重要程度和質(zhì)量屬性值,以此來通過Logit模型來建立馬爾科夫轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣,通過構(gòu)建每一步的動態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和研究多種情況下最終穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)下的概率來分析公共交通工具質(zhì)量屬性對交通工具分擔率的影響,可以為公交集團解決公交車分擔率低的問題,提供在質(zhì)量屬性上如何完善的參考和決策。本文的研究重點如下： 首先通過對國外文獻中重點提到的可靠性、發(fā)車頻率、費用、速度、舒適性和便捷性等質(zhì)量屬性的研究,結(jié)合相關(guān)解釋和一些具體通過該項質(zhì)量屬性解決交通問題的實際案例來歸納出本文所應(yīng)用的三類公共交通工具質(zhì)量屬性：可靠性、舒適性和費用。其次在對成都市公共交通情況作了簡單概述的基礎(chǔ)上,通過調(diào)查問卷,以求能夠獲取比較接近實際情況的數(shù)據(jù)。在此基礎(chǔ)上近似估算處理得出三種交通工具的質(zhì)量屬性值和兩兩比較得出各質(zhì)量屬性之間的相關(guān)重要程度,即權(quán)重。最后運用Logit模型建立公共交通出行方式離散選擇模型,并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建馬爾科夫轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣。為了能夠動態(tài)研究轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣得到的三種交通工具分擔率的轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢,本研究構(gòu)建了每一步轉(zhuǎn)移后的分擔率與質(zhì)量屬性之間的函數(shù)關(guān)系,以此分析當公共交通工具的質(zhì)量屬性在同等衰減和遞增(表示為運營者的“不作為”和“改善”)的水平下,哪一項質(zhì)量屬性對公交車分擔率的影響最大,哪一項質(zhì)量屬性對提高公交車分擔率更為有效。同時結(jié)合城市中出租車不斷漲價的實際影響來分析其對公交車分擔率的作用以及公交車應(yīng)該從自身做出哪些完善。
[Abstract]:With the increasing expansion of the city scale, the mass agglomeration of population and social activities makes the daily traffic volume rise by a large margin, and the roads become more and more crowded. The urban traffic problem becomes an important factor that restricts the development of the city. Public transport is the main way for urban people to travel, its efficient transportation capacity and scientific road network planning can effectively alleviate urban congestion. Faced with the problems of dense population and relative shortage of resources and energy, the bus, as the main body of road public transportation, should give full play to its urban transportation capacity and improve its sharing rate to alleviate traffic pressure. The sharing rate is the distribution probability of passenger flow between two or more traffic modes or routes, and the representation of the market share of each traffic mode or route. Previous studies have focused on how to develop urban rail transit infrastructure, or develop underground public transport to alleviate traffic congestion, many of the literature is from buses and rail transit (train, Subway and so on) to study the choice of people to travel, but at this time ignored the road public transport itself will also have a mutual influence on the situation. In this paper, the bus, taxi and three-wheeled motorcycle in the road public transportation are taken as the research object, and the transfer of the public transport share rate between the public transport vehicles in the road transportation is analyzed from another angle. Finally, it summarizes how to improve the operation level of the bus company, so that it can maximize the transportation capacity to increase the bus share rate. Based on the actual investigation, this paper designs a questionnaire to obtain the correlation importance and quality attribute value among the quality attributes of various kinds of public transport vehicles, so as to establish the Markov transfer matrix through the Logit model. By constructing the dynamic transfer matrix of each step and studying the probability of the final stable state under various circumstances to analyze the influence of the quality attributes of public transport vehicle on the share rate of public transport, we can solve the problem of low bus share rate for the public transport group. Provide reference and decision on how to improve quality attributes. The research focus of this paper is as follows: firstly, the quality attributes of reliability, departure frequency, cost, speed, comfort and convenience mentioned in foreign literature are studied. Combined with the relevant explanations and some practical cases of solving the traffic problem through the quality attribute, three kinds of public transport quality attributes used in this paper are summarized: reliability, comfort and cost. Secondly, on the basis of a brief overview of the public transport situation in Chengdu, the paper makes a questionnaire to obtain the data which is close to the actual situation. On the basis of this, the quality attribute value of three kinds of vehicles is estimated and compared with that of pairwise. The correlation between each quality attribute is obtained, that is, the weight. Finally, the discrete choice model of public transportation travel mode is established by using Logit model, and the Markov transition matrix is constructed on the basis of this model. In order to dynamically study the transfer trend of the transfer rate of three kinds of vehicles obtained from the transfer matrix, the functional relationship between the transfer rate and the quality attributes of each step is constructed. When the quality attribute of a public transport vehicle is at the same level of attenuation and increase (expressed as "inaction" and "improvement" of the operator), which quality attribute has the greatest impact on the bus share rate, Which quality attribute is more effective in increasing bus share rate. At the same time, combined with the actual impact of taxi price increase in cities, this paper analyzes the role of taxi share rate and how the bus should be improved from its own.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U12
本文編號：2374739
[Abstract]:With the increasing expansion of the city scale, the mass agglomeration of population and social activities makes the daily traffic volume rise by a large margin, and the roads become more and more crowded. The urban traffic problem becomes an important factor that restricts the development of the city. Public transport is the main way for urban people to travel, its efficient transportation capacity and scientific road network planning can effectively alleviate urban congestion. Faced with the problems of dense population and relative shortage of resources and energy, the bus, as the main body of road public transportation, should give full play to its urban transportation capacity and improve its sharing rate to alleviate traffic pressure. The sharing rate is the distribution probability of passenger flow between two or more traffic modes or routes, and the representation of the market share of each traffic mode or route. Previous studies have focused on how to develop urban rail transit infrastructure, or develop underground public transport to alleviate traffic congestion, many of the literature is from buses and rail transit (train, Subway and so on) to study the choice of people to travel, but at this time ignored the road public transport itself will also have a mutual influence on the situation. In this paper, the bus, taxi and three-wheeled motorcycle in the road public transportation are taken as the research object, and the transfer of the public transport share rate between the public transport vehicles in the road transportation is analyzed from another angle. Finally, it summarizes how to improve the operation level of the bus company, so that it can maximize the transportation capacity to increase the bus share rate. Based on the actual investigation, this paper designs a questionnaire to obtain the correlation importance and quality attribute value among the quality attributes of various kinds of public transport vehicles, so as to establish the Markov transfer matrix through the Logit model. By constructing the dynamic transfer matrix of each step and studying the probability of the final stable state under various circumstances to analyze the influence of the quality attributes of public transport vehicle on the share rate of public transport, we can solve the problem of low bus share rate for the public transport group. Provide reference and decision on how to improve quality attributes. The research focus of this paper is as follows: firstly, the quality attributes of reliability, departure frequency, cost, speed, comfort and convenience mentioned in foreign literature are studied. Combined with the relevant explanations and some practical cases of solving the traffic problem through the quality attribute, three kinds of public transport quality attributes used in this paper are summarized: reliability, comfort and cost. Secondly, on the basis of a brief overview of the public transport situation in Chengdu, the paper makes a questionnaire to obtain the data which is close to the actual situation. On the basis of this, the quality attribute value of three kinds of vehicles is estimated and compared with that of pairwise. The correlation between each quality attribute is obtained, that is, the weight. Finally, the discrete choice model of public transportation travel mode is established by using Logit model, and the Markov transition matrix is constructed on the basis of this model. In order to dynamically study the transfer trend of the transfer rate of three kinds of vehicles obtained from the transfer matrix, the functional relationship between the transfer rate and the quality attributes of each step is constructed. When the quality attribute of a public transport vehicle is at the same level of attenuation and increase (expressed as "inaction" and "improvement" of the operator), which quality attribute has the greatest impact on the bus share rate, Which quality attribute is more effective in increasing bus share rate. At the same time, combined with the actual impact of taxi price increase in cities, this paper analyzes the role of taxi share rate and how the bus should be improved from its own.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U12
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