【摘要】：公共交通的出行時(shí)間及出行時(shí)間可靠性是影響公交系統(tǒng)品質(zhì)和吸引力的重要指標(biāo),進(jìn)而會(huì)影響到公交優(yōu)先政策的成敗。國內(nèi)城市的公交運(yùn)營都受到政府的補(bǔ)貼,公交票價(jià)相對(duì)較低,其經(jīng)濟(jì)性優(yōu)勢相對(duì)明顯,對(duì)于出行者來講,公交出行的時(shí)間成本及可靠性成本對(duì)公交選擇行為的影響至關(guān)重要,是探討其對(duì)出行行為影響機(jī)理的理論基礎(chǔ),因此,本文對(duì)公交出行的時(shí)間價(jià)值及可靠性價(jià)值進(jìn)行深入研究。首先,以公交出行整個(gè)過程作為研究對(duì)象,包括兩端步行時(shí)間、等車時(shí)間、車內(nèi)運(yùn)行時(shí)間和換乘時(shí)間,構(gòu)建了公交出行各階段時(shí)間權(quán)重及價(jià)值模型�；诠桓麟A段時(shí)耗測試意愿調(diào)查問卷,分別對(duì)廣義公交群體和不同用戶群體視角下的公交出行各階段時(shí)間權(quán)重及價(jià)值進(jìn)行標(biāo)定分析,結(jié)果顯示,車外時(shí)間對(duì)出行選擇行為的影響大于車內(nèi)時(shí)間；兩端步行時(shí)間、等車時(shí)間、車內(nèi)運(yùn)行時(shí)間和換乘時(shí)間的時(shí)間權(quán)重分別為1.6、1.9、1.0和3.0。其次,基于不同出行時(shí)間下公共交通兩端步行時(shí)間容忍值的調(diào)查,研究公共交通兩端步行時(shí)空閾值分布,并通過考慮公共交通兩端步行時(shí)空閾值的影響因素建立離散選擇模型,深入研究個(gè)體差異性以及出行總耗時(shí)對(duì)兩端步行時(shí)空閾值的影響。最后,運(yùn)用早到時(shí)間、早到概率、遲到時(shí)間、遲到概率四個(gè)因素直觀呈現(xiàn)出行時(shí)間波動(dòng)性的基礎(chǔ)上,采用正交試驗(yàn)原理設(shè)計(jì)實(shí)施了公共交通出行時(shí)間可靠性意愿調(diào)查,分別運(yùn)用均值-方差模型和調(diào)度模型評(píng)估出行時(shí)間可靠性價(jià)值并進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,并基于調(diào)度模型研究不同用戶群體、不同收入群體、不同學(xué)歷群體出行者對(duì)出行時(shí)間波動(dòng)性的異質(zhì)性差異。
[Abstract]:Public transport travel time and travel time reliability is an important indicator of the quality and attractiveness of public transport system, which will affect the success or failure of bus priority policy. The public transport operation in domestic cities is subsidized by the government, the bus ticket price is relatively low, and its economic advantages are relatively obvious. For travelers, the time cost and reliability cost of public transport travel is very important to the choice of public transport. It is the theoretical basis of discussing the mechanism of its influence on travel behavior. Therefore, this paper deeply studies the time value and reliability value of public transport trip. Firstly, taking the whole process of bus trip as the research object, including walking time at both ends, waiting time, in-vehicle running time and transfer time, the weight and value model of each stage of public transport travel is constructed. Based on the questionnaire of time consuming will in each stage of public transport, the time weight and value of each stage of public transport travel are calibrated and analyzed from the perspective of generalized public transport group and different user groups, and the results show that. The influence of out-of-vehicle time on travel choice behavior is greater than that on in-vehicle time. The time weights of walking time, waiting time, in-vehicle running time and transfer time are 1.6g 1.9g 1.0 and 3.0 respectively. Secondly, based on the investigation of the tolerance of walking time at both ends of public transport, the distribution of space-time threshold of public transport is studied, and the discrete selection model is established by considering the factors that affect the threshold of walking time and space at both ends of public transport. The effects of individual differences and travel time on the threshold of walking time and space were studied. Finally, on the basis of four factors, such as early arrival time, early arrival probability, late time and lateness probability, the travel time fluctuation is intuitively presented, and the reliability will of public transportation travel time is designed and implemented by using the principle of orthogonal test. We use mean-variance model and scheduling model to evaluate the reliability value of travel time and analyze the reliability of travel time. Based on the scheduling model, we study different user groups and different income groups. The heterogeneity of travel time volatility among travelers with different educational background.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491.17

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本文編號(hào)：2337145