城市公交運行數(shù)據(jù)時空預測算法及可靠性分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-14 10:15
【摘要】：為了提高公交系統(tǒng)服務可靠性,濟南市公交公司已經(jīng)花費了大量的物力和財力來實施一些最先進的運輸和通信技術。在公交系統(tǒng)服務可靠性方面的進步不僅會給公交系統(tǒng)的運營者帶來收益,而且會極大的方便乘客的出行。公交車準時到站率的提高不僅會減少公交車到站時間的波動,從而節(jié)省乘客的等待時間；而且能夠讓公交車運營者在制定時刻表時減少額外的緩沖時間,這樣就可以減少不必要的出車行為,更有效的地利用公交車資源。公交系統(tǒng)服務可靠性的提高會減少前后公交車同時到達某一站點后者前后兩輛公交車到達某一站點出現(xiàn)較大的時間間隔現(xiàn)象的產(chǎn)生,同時也能減少乘客在站臺的等待時間,保證公交車資源能被充分利用。對于公交車服務的提供者和乘客來說,公交服務不可靠帶來的首要問題就是大量不必要的財政支出。然而,中國的城市路網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)非常復雜,公交車的運行受到其他私家車,自行車和出租車的影響。為了更好的方便人們的出行,市面上出現(xiàn)了很多APP軟件,比如說微步、無線城市掌上公交、彩虹公交等軟件,然而這些軟件的開發(fā)商沒有深入分析公交車的運行數(shù)據(jù),沒有分析公交車可靠性,所以這些軟件提供的數(shù)據(jù)存在偏差,導致了服務質(zhì)量的下降。調(diào)查顯示,公交車運行時間可靠性已經(jīng)成為增強城市公交吸引力的重要手段,它不僅左右著人們的出行選擇,還影響公交公司制定調(diào)度表方面的決策。然而,由于受到天氣、道路狀況、時間、信號燈綠信比等因素的影響,目前公交車運行時間可靠性還不盡如人意,影響了人們的出行安排。公交車服務可靠性模型的結果對公交車服務計劃,制定時刻表和運行控制有很多啟示。因為公交車延遲變化直接影響乘客的等待時間,以上結論對乘客也有很重要的作用。本文基于濟南市公交車的GPS數(shù)據(jù),研究了濟南市公交車運行時間可靠性情況。主要實現(xiàn)了四個研究目標。第一：探究每個因素的影響,是如何影響的；第二：研究影響是否顯著(P值),影響程度的大��；第三：根據(jù)公交車運行時間可靠性模型得出政策性的結論；第四：對公交車運行時間可靠性做出一定的預測。本文首先給出了公交車運行時間可靠性的定義：運行時間的標準差率(CV)=標準差／均值,然后采集了三條特征各異的線路在27天的運行數(shù)據(jù),最后通過預測算法得出各個影響因素的影響權值與顯著性,得出政策性的結論。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the reliability of public transport system, Jinan bus Company has spent a lot of material and financial resources to implement some of the most advanced transportation and communication technology. The progress in the reliability of public transport system will not only bring benefits to the operators, but also greatly facilitate the travel of passengers. The increase in on-time bus arrival will not only reduce the fluctuation of bus arrival time, thus saving passengers waiting time, but also allow bus operators to reduce the extra buffer time when they set their timetables. This can reduce unnecessary driving behavior, more effective use of bus resources. The improvement of bus service reliability will reduce the occurrence of large time interval between two buses arriving at a certain station at the same time, and can also reduce the waiting time of passengers at the platform. To ensure that bus resources can be fully utilized. For bus service providers and passengers, the most important problem caused by unreliable bus service is a large amount of unnecessary financial expenditure. However, China's urban road network system is very complex, bus operation is affected by other private cars, bicycles and taxis. In order to make it easier for people to travel, there are many APP software on the market, such as microstep, wireless city palmtop bus, rainbow bus, etc. However, the developers of these software have not analyzed the running data of buses in depth. There is no analysis of bus reliability, so the data provided by the software are biased, leading to a decline in the quality of service. The investigation shows that the reliability of bus running time has become an important means to enhance the attractiveness of urban public transport. It not only affects people's travel choices, but also affects the decision of bus companies to make scheduling tables. However, due to the influence of weather, road condition, time, green signal ratio and so on, the reliability of bus running time is not satisfactory, which affects people's travel arrangements. The results of the bus service reliability model have a lot of implications for bus service planning, scheduling and operation control. Because the change of bus delay directly affects the waiting time of passengers, the above conclusions also play an important role in passengers. Based on the GPS data of Jinan bus, the reliability of bus running time is studied in this paper. Four main research objectives have been achieved. The first is to explore the influence of each factor, the second is to study whether the influence is significant (P value), and the third is to draw the policy conclusion according to the reliability model of bus running time. Fourth, the reliability of bus running time to make a certain prediction. This paper first gives the definition of bus running time reliability: the standard deviation rate of running time (CV) = standard deviation / mean, and then collects the operation data of three different lines in 27 days. Finally, the influence weight and significance of each influencing factor are obtained by the prediction algorithm, and the policy conclusion is drawn.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.17
本文編號：2270151
[Abstract]:In order to improve the reliability of public transport system, Jinan bus Company has spent a lot of material and financial resources to implement some of the most advanced transportation and communication technology. The progress in the reliability of public transport system will not only bring benefits to the operators, but also greatly facilitate the travel of passengers. The increase in on-time bus arrival will not only reduce the fluctuation of bus arrival time, thus saving passengers waiting time, but also allow bus operators to reduce the extra buffer time when they set their timetables. This can reduce unnecessary driving behavior, more effective use of bus resources. The improvement of bus service reliability will reduce the occurrence of large time interval between two buses arriving at a certain station at the same time, and can also reduce the waiting time of passengers at the platform. To ensure that bus resources can be fully utilized. For bus service providers and passengers, the most important problem caused by unreliable bus service is a large amount of unnecessary financial expenditure. However, China's urban road network system is very complex, bus operation is affected by other private cars, bicycles and taxis. In order to make it easier for people to travel, there are many APP software on the market, such as microstep, wireless city palmtop bus, rainbow bus, etc. However, the developers of these software have not analyzed the running data of buses in depth. There is no analysis of bus reliability, so the data provided by the software are biased, leading to a decline in the quality of service. The investigation shows that the reliability of bus running time has become an important means to enhance the attractiveness of urban public transport. It not only affects people's travel choices, but also affects the decision of bus companies to make scheduling tables. However, due to the influence of weather, road condition, time, green signal ratio and so on, the reliability of bus running time is not satisfactory, which affects people's travel arrangements. The results of the bus service reliability model have a lot of implications for bus service planning, scheduling and operation control. Because the change of bus delay directly affects the waiting time of passengers, the above conclusions also play an important role in passengers. Based on the GPS data of Jinan bus, the reliability of bus running time is studied in this paper. Four main research objectives have been achieved. The first is to explore the influence of each factor, the second is to study whether the influence is significant (P value), and the third is to draw the policy conclusion according to the reliability model of bus running time. Fourth, the reliability of bus running time to make a certain prediction. This paper first gives the definition of bus running time reliability: the standard deviation rate of running time (CV) = standard deviation / mean, and then collects the operation data of three different lines in 27 days. Finally, the influence weight and significance of each influencing factor are obtained by the prediction algorithm, and the policy conclusion is drawn.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.17
【共引文獻】
相關博士學位論文 前1條
1 孫奎利;天津市綠道系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃研究[D];天津大學;2012年
，本文編號：2270151
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