【摘要】：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易的蓬勃發(fā)展,促使了集裝箱航運(yùn)業(yè)的迅速崛起,使得集裝箱港口對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展起著越來(lái)越重要的作用。但是由于我國(guó)集裝箱港口的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施條件、所處地理位置、所依托城市腹地的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平等參差不齊,導(dǎo)致我國(guó)集裝箱港口布局規(guī)劃混亂、港口間不合理的分工等問(wèn)題層出不窮。傳統(tǒng)的港口聚類主要集中在單一影響因素下進(jìn)行的聚類,對(duì)于復(fù)雜的集裝箱港口系統(tǒng)來(lái)說(shuō),有必要找出一種全面考慮集裝箱港口復(fù)雜影響因素的綜合聚類研究框架。本文在分析了我國(guó)集裝箱港口發(fā)展現(xiàn)存問(wèn)題和集裝箱港口復(fù)雜性的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合處理復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的TEI@I方法論和聚類相關(guān)理論,提出了一種港口綜合聚類框架;首先是運(yùn)用文本挖掘(Text Mining)和專家系統(tǒng)(Intelligence)等智能技術(shù)挖掘出復(fù)雜的集裝箱港口發(fā)展影響因素,進(jìn)而結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)模型(Econometrics)相關(guān)性分析對(duì)集裝箱港口進(jìn)行綜合(Integration)聚類指標(biāo)選取,最后運(yùn)用港口綜合聚類指標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)代表性港口的聚類;聚類得到以下結(jié)果,即從規(guī)模上,將所選取港口分為國(guó)際性港口、區(qū)域性樞紐港口、沿海區(qū)域性港口、地方性港口四個(gè)層次,得到各港口合理的布局和定位,同時(shí)從港口吞吐量增長(zhǎng)規(guī)律上,將所選取港口分為平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)型、加速增長(zhǎng)型和波動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)型三大類,并得出具有不同增長(zhǎng)規(guī)律的港口所適用的預(yù)測(cè)方法。本文從集裝箱港口系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性視角,基于TEI@I方法論的思想,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)集裝箱港口的規(guī)模及增長(zhǎng)規(guī)律不同角度的聚類,得到各個(gè)規(guī)模港口合理的布局和定位、不同增長(zhǎng)規(guī)律的港口所適用的預(yù)測(cè)方法,對(duì)于港口規(guī)劃建設(shè)、正確地預(yù)測(cè)港口未來(lái)的吞吐量、企業(yè)投資等都具有極其重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。
[Abstract]:The booming development of China's economy and trade promotes the rapid rise of container shipping industry and makes container ports play a more and more important role in the development of national economy. However, due to the uneven infrastructure conditions, geographical location and the level of economic development in the hinterland of the container ports in China, the layout and planning of container ports in our country are in confusion. Problems such as unreasonable division of labor between ports emerge in endlessly. The traditional port clustering is mainly focused on the cluster under the single influence factor. For the complex container port system, it is necessary to find a comprehensive cluster research framework that takes into account the complex factors of container port. Based on the analysis of the existing problems in the development of container ports and the complexity of container ports in China, this paper puts forward a comprehensive cluster framework of ports based on the TEI@I methodology and clustering theory of dealing with complex systems. Firstly, the paper uses intelligent technologies such as text mining (Text Mining) and expert system (Intelligence) to find out the complex influencing factors of container port development, and then combines the correlation analysis of economic model (Econometrics) to select the comprehensive (Integration) clustering index of container port. Finally, using the comprehensive cluster index of port to realize the clustering of representative ports, the following results are obtained, that is, the selected ports are divided into international port, regional hub port, coastal regional port, the scale of the selected port, According to the law of port throughput growth, the selected ports are divided into three categories: steady growth type, accelerated growth type and fluctuating growth type. The forecasting methods for ports with different growth laws are obtained. From the perspective of the complexity of container port system, based on the idea of TEI@I methodology, this paper realizes the cluster of different angles of the scale and growth law of container port, and obtains the reasonable layout and orientation of each size port. The forecasting methods for ports with different growth laws are of great strategic significance to the planning and construction of ports, the correct prediction of port throughput in the future, and the investment of enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F552

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本文編號(hào)：2231427