【摘要】：交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的震后通行性能對(duì)于震后救援及重建具有重要意義,而交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中.的橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)易損性是影響交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)整體連通可靠度的關(guān)鍵因素。概率地震危險(xiǎn)性分析可為橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)易損性分析提供必須的地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曲線及地震動(dòng)參數(shù)。將概率地震危險(xiǎn)性分析與地震學(xué)領(lǐng)域震源-傳播途徑-場(chǎng)地條件一體化的地震動(dòng)模擬方法結(jié)合起來,計(jì)算地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曲線及地震動(dòng)參數(shù),對(duì)區(qū)域交通路網(wǎng)連通可靠度的研究及路網(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型的建立,具有較好的學(xué)科交叉性和重要的工程意義。本文以四川省某高烈度區(qū)交通路網(wǎng)為例,借助有限斷層地震動(dòng)隨機(jī)合成方法,對(duì)路網(wǎng)區(qū)域進(jìn)行了地震動(dòng)模擬,建立了區(qū)域地震動(dòng)參數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)公式,結(jié)合概率地震危險(xiǎn)性分析方法,對(duì)路網(wǎng)橋梁節(jié)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了地震危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià),給出了各橋梁場(chǎng)址的地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曲線。首先,闡述了基于地震動(dòng)隨機(jī)合成的概率地震危險(xiǎn)性分析的理論方法和技術(shù)流程,詳細(xì)介紹了地震動(dòng)合成所需參數(shù)的物理含義�？紤]到參數(shù)的不確定性,將一些關(guān)鍵參數(shù)視為隨機(jī)變量,在地震動(dòng)合成時(shí)隨機(jī)生成其參數(shù)值。以四川省某高烈度區(qū)交通路網(wǎng)為研究對(duì)象,通過區(qū)域地質(zhì)和地震活動(dòng)性資料,確定了各參數(shù)的取值方法和概率分布特征,完成了研究區(qū)域內(nèi)8個(gè)方向192個(gè)場(chǎng)點(diǎn)處的地震動(dòng)隨機(jī)合成;在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用Robust回歸得到了研究區(qū)域內(nèi)PGA和不同周期PSA的地震動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)公式,并與現(xiàn)有的四川及鄰近地區(qū)的典型地震動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)公式進(jìn)行了對(duì)比;最后,基于回歸的地震動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)公式,結(jié)合概率地震危險(xiǎn)性分析,對(duì)目標(biāo)交通路網(wǎng)的40個(gè)橋梁節(jié)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了地震危險(xiǎn)性分析,得到各個(gè)橋梁場(chǎng)址的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曲線,與基于傳統(tǒng)地震動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)公式得到的地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曲線進(jìn)行了對(duì)比,并探討了基于本文風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曲線得到的地震動(dòng)設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)與基于傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曲線得到的地震動(dòng)設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)差異,以及對(duì)不同區(qū)域橋梁節(jié)點(diǎn)易損性和路網(wǎng)整體連通可靠度的影響。
[Abstract]:The traffic performance of traffic network after earthquake is very important to rescue and reconstruction after earthquake. The vulnerability of bridge structure is the key factor to affect the overall connectivity reliability of traffic network. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can provide the necessary seismic risk curve and seismic parameters for the vulnerability analysis of bridge structures. Combining the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with the seismic simulation method which integrates focal propagation path and site conditions in seismology field, the seismic risk curve and seismic parameters are calculated. The research on the connectivity reliability of regional traffic network and the establishment of road network risk model have good interdisciplinary intersections and important engineering significance. Taking a traffic network in a high intensity area of Sichuan Province as an example, the ground motion of a road network area is simulated by means of random synthesis method of limited fault ground motion, and the prediction formula of regional ground motion parameters is established, and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method is combined. The seismic risk assessment of bridge nodes in road network is carried out, and the seismic risk curve of each bridge site is given. Firstly, the theoretical method and technical flow of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on random synthesis of ground motion are described, and the physical meaning of the parameters required for the synthesis of ground motion is introduced in detail. Considering the uncertainty of the parameters, some key parameters are regarded as random variables, which are randomly generated when the ground motion is synthesized. Taking the traffic network of a high intensity area in Sichuan Province as the research object, the method of choosing the value of each parameter and the characteristics of probability distribution are determined through the regional geological and seismicity data. On the basis of the random synthesis of ground motion at 192 field points in 8 directions in the study area, the prediction formulas of ground motion for PGA and PSA of different periods in the study area are obtained by using Robust regression. And compared with the existing typical earthquake prediction formulas in Sichuan and adjacent areas. Finally, based on the regression prediction formula of ground motion, combined with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Based on the seismic hazard analysis of 40 bridge nodes in the target traffic network, the risk curves of each bridge site are obtained, which are compared with the seismic risk curves obtained from the traditional ground motion prediction formula. The difference between the design parameters of ground motion based on the risk curve and the design parameters of ground motion based on the traditional risk curve is discussed, and the influence on the vulnerability of bridge nodes in different regions and the reliability of the overall connectivity of the road network is also discussed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U442.55

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本文編號(hào)：2194307