【摘要】：路徑選擇行為方面的研究一直是交通行為研究領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,現(xiàn)有研究多基于確定性的出行環(huán)境,同時(shí)認(rèn)為出行者是“完全理性”的。前景理論考慮出行者在出行決策過(guò)程中的心理特征,并且假設(shè)決策者是具有有限理性的個(gè)體,近些年來(lái)已經(jīng)廣泛應(yīng)用于路徑選擇行為研究中。作為判斷收益和損失的分界點(diǎn),參考點(diǎn)如何定義以及取值受到諸多研究者的關(guān)注。參考點(diǎn)的選取會(huì)直接影響到最終的選擇結(jié)果,因此需對(duì)參考點(diǎn)的形成、參考點(diǎn)位置的確定進(jìn)行全面系統(tǒng)的研究。論文闡述了基于前景理論的出行者路徑選擇過(guò)程,揭示了個(gè)體在進(jìn)行決策的過(guò)程中存在參考點(diǎn)依賴的現(xiàn)象,然后從參考點(diǎn)形成入手,分析了影響個(gè)體參考點(diǎn)選取的多種因素,并對(duì)參考點(diǎn)的選取進(jìn)行了靈敏性分析,通過(guò)算例發(fā)現(xiàn)參考點(diǎn)設(shè)定的不同會(huì)導(dǎo)致前景值計(jì)算結(jié)果發(fā)生反轉(zhuǎn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,考慮參考點(diǎn)設(shè)定的不同,設(shè)計(jì)了單次路徑選擇實(shí)驗(yàn),并重新定義了基于問(wèn)卷調(diào)查的參考點(diǎn)取值,通過(guò)比較不同情境下模型預(yù)測(cè)能力,評(píng)估多種參考點(diǎn)設(shè)置方法的優(yōu)劣。結(jié)果表明,相較于傳統(tǒng)的設(shè)定方法,改進(jìn)的參考點(diǎn)設(shè)定方法對(duì)選擇結(jié)果的預(yù)測(cè)能力有所提升。論文末章基于前景理論和貝葉斯估計(jì)構(gòu)建了累積出行經(jīng)驗(yàn)下的路徑選擇模型,并且分析了出行者在多日出行過(guò)程中路徑選擇的特點(diǎn),以此設(shè)計(jì)了路徑選擇實(shí)驗(yàn),通過(guò)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)分析了參考點(diǎn)的更新變化規(guī)律。研究表明出行者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度和出行經(jīng)驗(yàn)因素對(duì)參考點(diǎn)調(diào)整的幅度影響顯著。本文將理論研究與實(shí)驗(yàn)研究相結(jié)合,嘗試運(yùn)用行為學(xué)理論來(lái)解釋選擇行為的內(nèi)在機(jī)理,通過(guò)對(duì)個(gè)體在不同條件下的路徑選擇的行為進(jìn)行分析和建模,全面的對(duì)前景理論中參考點(diǎn)設(shè)置這一熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了實(shí)證性的研究,并給出了合理的參考點(diǎn)選取方法。文章結(jié)尾提出了尚未完善以及需要繼續(xù)深入研究的問(wèn)題,對(duì)未來(lái)相關(guān)研究提供了方向。
[Abstract]:The research on route choice behavior has always been a hot topic in the field of traffic behavior. Most of the existing researches are based on deterministic travel environment, and the travelers are considered to be "completely rational". The prospect theory considers the psychological characteristics of travelers in the travel decision-making process and assumes that the decision makers are individuals with limited rationality and has been widely used in the research of path choice behavior in recent years. How to define and value reference points, which is the boundary point for judging profit and loss, has attracted many researchers' attention. The selection of reference points will directly affect the final selection results, so it is necessary to make a comprehensive and systematic study on the formation of reference points and the determination of reference points. This paper expounds the path selection process of travelers based on foreground theory, reveals the phenomenon of reference point dependence in the process of individual decision-making, and then analyzes the various factors that affect the selection of individual reference points, starting with the formation of reference points. The sensitivity of the reference point selection is analyzed. It is found that the difference of the reference point setting will result in the inversion of the calculation result. On this basis, considering the different setting of reference points, the single path selection experiment is designed, and the reference point value based on questionnaire is redefined, and the prediction ability of the model is compared in different situations. Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various reference point setting methods. The results show that compared with the traditional setting method, the improved reference point setting method improves the prediction ability of the selection results. In the last chapter, based on prospect theory and Bayesian estimation, a path selection model based on cumulative travel experience is constructed, and the characteristics of path selection in multi-day travel process are analyzed. According to the survey data, the change law of reference points is analyzed. The results show that the risk attitude and travel experience of travelers have a significant impact on the range of reference point adjustment. In this paper, theoretical and experimental studies are combined to try to explain the intrinsic mechanism of choice behavior by using behavioral theory, and to analyze and model the behavior of individual path selection under different conditions. In this paper, the problem of reference point setting in foreground theory is studied in detail, and a reasonable method of reference point selection is given. At the end of the paper, the problems that are not perfect and need to be further studied are put forward, which provide a direction for future research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491

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