【摘要】：為定量分析民間資本介入城市公交的能耗和排放效果,用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)(System Dynamics,SD)方法,構(gòu)建民間資本(簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)"民資")介入公交的SD仿真模型,從環(huán)境角度分析考慮乘客價(jià)值的民資介入公交模式對(duì)環(huán)境影響的累積效果。通過(guò)濟(jì)南公交運(yùn)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證SD模型的有效性,并以濟(jì)南公交一個(gè)車(chē)隊(duì)100輛公交車(chē)為例進(jìn)行環(huán)境影響效果仿真。結(jié)果表明:民資介入公交有助于節(jié)能減排,考慮乘客價(jià)值的民資介入公交模式比傳統(tǒng)的民資介入模式有更好的節(jié)能減排效果。其中,考慮乘客價(jià)值的民資介入公交模式比民資未介入公交,100個(gè)月累積減少燃油消耗398千升,減少CO2排放109噸,減少CO排放542千克,減少SO2排放1.6千克,減少PM10排放77.3千克。從環(huán)境角度驗(yàn)證考慮乘客價(jià)值的民資介入公交模式的優(yōu)越性,為管理者從環(huán)境角度系統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)民資介入公交的效果提供理論支持。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively analyze the energy consumption and emission effect of private capital involved in urban public transport, the SD simulation model of private capital ("civilian capital") involved in public transport is constructed by system dynamics (SD) method. This paper analyzes the cumulative effect of the civilian-funded public transport model considering the value of passengers on the environmental impact from the environmental point of view. The validity of SD model is verified by Jinan bus operation data, and the environmental impact effect of 100 buses in Jinan bus fleet is simulated. The results show that the intervention of civilian capital is helpful to energy saving and emission reduction, and the model of civil capital intervention with the consideration of passenger value has better effect of energy saving and emission reduction than the traditional mode of private capital intervention. Considering the value of passengers, the model of civilian involved public transport with the consideration of passenger value can reduce fuel consumption by 398 kiloliter, reduce CO2 emission by 109 tons, reduce CO emission by 542 kg, reduce SO2 emission by 1.6 kg and PM10 emission by 77.3 kg over 100 months. From the environmental point of view, this paper verifies the superiority of the civilian capital intervention mode considering the passenger value, and provides theoretical support for the managers to evaluate the effect of the civilian capital intervention from the environmental point of view.
【作者單位】： 華東交通大學(xué)交通運(yùn)輸與物流學(xué)院;北京工業(yè)大學(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目資助(51338008);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目資助(51378036) 青海西寧智慧交通關(guān)鍵技術(shù)集成與示范項(xiàng)目資助(2015-SF-A5)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U12;X73
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本文編號(hào)：2131315