本文選題：主體行為風(fēng)險 + BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　； 參考：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段,國家對采用政府與社會資本合作模式及社會資本全額投資建設(shè)的經(jīng)營性高速公路,實行特許經(jīng)營。收費高速公路經(jīng)營管理已進入改革過渡的關(guān)鍵時期。隨著高速公路項目運營環(huán)境的不斷變化,高速公路運營公司所面臨的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險越來越大,由高速公路項目運營的主體行為導(dǎo)致其可能發(fā)生的經(jīng)濟損失也隨之增加,如何更客觀、高效地對高速公路項目運營的主體行為風(fēng)險進行系統(tǒng)綜合評價,逐漸成為高速公路經(jīng)營公司和學(xué)術(shù)界共同關(guān)注的熱門問題。論文在系統(tǒng)分析國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合高速公路運營管理、行為風(fēng)險管理、系統(tǒng)綜合評價等相關(guān)理論,以及國內(nèi)高速公路項目運營主體行為風(fēng)險管理的現(xiàn)狀,深入對比分析了不同系統(tǒng)綜合評價方法的特征、內(nèi)容和優(yōu)缺點,論證了基于人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的系統(tǒng)綜合評價方法與高速公路項目運營主體行為風(fēng)險評價的適用性與可行性。對高速公路運營主體行為風(fēng)險的構(gòu)成要素入手分析,從政府部門行為、運營公司內(nèi)部行為、顧客行為以及市場競爭行為等四個方面,構(gòu)建了高速公路運營主體行為風(fēng)險綜合評價指標(biāo)體系,對各指標(biāo)的內(nèi)涵進行了詳細闡述,給出了指標(biāo)值相應(yīng)的計算方法;提出了基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的高速公路運營行為風(fēng)險評價理論體系,進行了XJ高速公路項目的實證分析;最后,采用靈敏度分析法對高速公路項目運營主體行為風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)對評價結(jié)果的影響程度進行深入分析,以改進BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)難以精確分析神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的各項性能指標(biāo)的不足。論文所建立的高速公路運營主體行為風(fēng)險評價的人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,具有很高的準(zhǔn)確度,對所用高速公路項目運營的主體行為風(fēng)險樣本而言,得出的結(jié)果相對誤差在10-3以下。BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對于解決高速公路運營主體行為風(fēng)險評價等此類高度非線性問題具有獨到的優(yōu)勢,可作為評測高速公路項目運營的主體行為風(fēng)險的有效技術(shù)手段,為當(dāng)前企業(yè)進行高速公路項目運營的主體行為風(fēng)險管理提供有效的決策支持。
[Abstract]:At the present stage, the government has adopted the mode of cooperation between government and social capital and the full investment of social capital in the construction of the operating highway. The operation and management of toll highway has entered the key period of reform and transition. With the continuous change of the operating environment of the expressway project, the operating risk of the expressway operation company is more and more great. The economic loss that may occur caused by the main body behavior of the expressway project operation also increases, how to be more objective, The systematic and comprehensive evaluation of the main body behavior risk of expressway project operation has gradually become a hot issue that the expressway management company and academic circles pay attention to. Based on the systematic analysis of domestic and foreign literature, this paper combines the related theories of expressway operation management, behavior risk management, system comprehensive evaluation, and the current situation of domestic expressway project operation subject behavior risk management. The characteristics, contents, advantages and disadvantages of comprehensive evaluation methods of different systems are compared and analyzed, and the applicability and feasibility of comprehensive evaluation methods based on artificial neural network and behavioral risk assessment of highway project operators are demonstrated. Starting with the analysis of the constituent elements of the behavior risk of the main body of the expressway operation, this paper analyzes the behavior of the government, the internal behavior of the operating company, the customer behavior and the market competition behavior. This paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system of the behavior risk of the main body of the expressway operation, expounds the connotation of each index in detail, and gives the corresponding calculation method of the index value. This paper puts forward a theoretical system of highway operational behavior risk evaluation based on BP neural network, and carries out an empirical analysis of XJ expressway project. Finally, In order to improve the BP neural network, it is difficult to accurately analyze the shortcomings of each performance index of the BP neural network by using sensitivity analysis method to deeply analyze the influence degree of the risk evaluation index of the main body of the expressway project operation on the evaluation results. The artificial neural network model established in this paper has a high accuracy in evaluating the behavior risk of the expressway operator. For the sample of the subject behavior risk used in the expressway project operation, the artificial neural network (Ann) model is established in this paper. The relative error of the result is below 10-3. BP neural network has unique advantages in solving such highly nonlinear problems as risk evaluation of highway operators' behavior. It can be used as an effective technical means to evaluate the risk of main body behavior in expressway project operation, and provide effective decision support for the main body behavior risk management of expressway project operation in enterprises at present.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F542

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