本文選題：誘導信息 + 路徑選擇��； 參考：《天津大學》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：交通流的產(chǎn)生離不開出行者的選擇和決策,其本質(zhì)就是出行者出行行為集計的結(jié)果,而路徑誘導系統(tǒng)的效果歸根到底也取決于出行者在誘導信息作用下的路徑選擇行為,所以說誘導信息作用下路徑選擇行為的研究具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實價值。本文首先通過調(diào)查統(tǒng)計和模擬實驗研究駕駛員路徑選擇行為的特點和決策機制,并以此研究結(jié)論為基礎在認知心理學框架下提出真實合理的行為假設,構(gòu)建符合實際的行為決策模型來模擬和分析出行者的路徑選擇行為,最后采用多智能體仿真技術(shù)研究交通信息的發(fā)布模式,為交通誘導系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建和誘導信息的發(fā)布提供理論依據(jù)和技術(shù)支撐。本文的工作內(nèi)容和創(chuàng)新點匯總?cè)缦?1.設計并通過SP場景實驗獲取VMS信息作用下駕駛員路徑選擇的行為數(shù)據(jù),通過經(jīng)驗路徑、最優(yōu)路徑和選擇路徑之間的關系定義了駕駛員對誘導信息的服從行為,并基于服從率構(gòu)建有序回歸模型,總結(jié)了影響駕駛員服從信息的不同因素,結(jié)果表明年齡、收入、性格、職業(yè)、對信息的信任程度、出行經(jīng)驗和路徑選擇風格直接影響誘導信息對駕駛員的作用。2.基于前景理論對駕駛員路徑選擇行為中的風險態(tài)度進行分析,結(jié)合問卷和調(diào)研的實證數(shù)據(jù)對風險態(tài)度參數(shù)進行估計并驗證。同時考慮了駕駛員間的異質(zhì)性,得到不同類別駕駛員的風險態(tài)度特征,結(jié)果表明隨著年齡的增加,駕駛員間的異質(zhì)性更加明顯,而且在面對收益時的風險規(guī)避程度隨著收入的增高而下降。3.開展模擬實驗研究誘導信息作用下出行者的逐日路徑選擇行為,探究駕駛員從內(nèi)部經(jīng)驗和外部信息進行學習的過程,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)隨著出行經(jīng)驗的增加,出行者對不同路徑會形成偏見,路徑選擇決策中習慣作用比較明顯,習慣的作用隨著決策環(huán)境復雜性的增加而增大。4.借鑒認知心理學和SOAR認知框架,基于對調(diào)查、模擬等數(shù)據(jù)研究獲得的結(jié)論和啟示對路徑選擇行為的認知過程進行描述,同時反映駕駛員在路徑選擇行為中的感知、工作記憶、長期記憶、組塊和強化學習等功能。5.對比分析多智能體仿真模擬結(jié)果和調(diào)查統(tǒng)計獲取數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)果表明基于SOAR認知框架的路徑選擇模型能夠合理有效地模擬現(xiàn)實決策過程,并基于此認知模型仿真得到預測信息發(fā)布模式在誘導效果和路網(wǎng)均衡上優(yōu)于實時信息模式。
[Abstract]:The generation of traffic flow is inseparable from the traveler's choice and decision, and its essence is the result of the traveler's travel behavior set, and the effect of the path guidance system in the final analysis also depends on the traveler's path choice behavior under the action of the induced information. Therefore, the study of path selection under the action of induced information has important theoretical and practical value. In this paper, the characteristics and decision-making mechanism of driver's path choice behavior are studied through investigation, statistics and simulation experiments, and based on the conclusions, a real and reasonable behavior hypothesis is put forward under the framework of cognitive psychology. A practical behavior decision model is constructed to simulate and analyze the path selection behavior of travelers. Finally, the multi-agent simulation technology is used to study the traffic information release model. It provides theoretical basis and technical support for the construction of traffic guidance system and the release of guidance information. The contents and innovations of this article are summarized below: 1. The behavior data of driver's path selection under the action of VMS information are designed and acquired by SP scene experiment. The behavior of driver's obedience to induced information is defined by the relationship among empirical path, optimal path and selective path. An orderly regression model is constructed based on the rate of serviceability, and the different factors influencing the information of drivers' clothing compliance are summarized. The results show that age, income, character, occupation, degree of trust in information, etc. Travel experience and path selection style directly affect the effect of induced information on drivers. 2. Based on the foreground theory, this paper analyzes the risk attitude in the driver's path choice behavior, and estimates and verifies the risk attitude parameters based on the questionnaire and empirical data. At the same time, considering the heterogeneity of drivers, the risk attitude characteristics of different types of drivers are obtained. The results show that the heterogeneity between drivers is more obvious with the increase of age. And the degree of risk aversion in the face of income increases as income increases. 3. 3%. The simulation experiments were carried out to study the daily path selection behavior of travelers under the action of inducing information, and to explore the learning process of drivers from internal experience and external information. The study found that with the increase of travel experience, Travelers have a bias against different paths, and habit plays an obvious role in path selection, and the role of habit increases with the increase of decision environment complexity. Using the cognitive psychology and SOAR cognitive framework for reference, the cognitive process of path selection behavior is described based on the conclusions and revelations obtained from the investigation, simulation and other data studies, and the perception and working memory of drivers in the path choice behavior are reflected at the same time. Long-term memory, block building and reinforcement learning. 5. The results show that the path selection model based on SOAR cognitive framework can simulate the real decision-making process reasonably and effectively. Based on this cognitive model, the predictive information release model is better than the real-time information model in the inductive effect and road network equilibrium.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491
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本文編號：1975438