本文選題：中等城市 + 事故預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文依托于某中等城市道路交通安全規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目,深刻剖析當(dāng)前中國(guó)道路交通安全形勢(shì)的特點(diǎn)與背景。隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展和人們對(duì)出行需求、出行質(zhì)量要求的提高,我國(guó)的機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量正在迅猛增長(zhǎng)。過快的機(jī)動(dòng)車及駕駛?cè)藛T的激增,都給本來脆弱的交通安全環(huán)境帶來了新的挑戰(zhàn)。道路交通事故總量一直居高不下,嚴(yán)重危害到我國(guó)人民的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全。因此,如何能有效預(yù)防道路交通事故發(fā)生、改善道路交通安全環(huán)境已然成為了道路交通管理部門的首要任務(wù)。本文基于該規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目背景,以某中等城市為例對(duì)該城市道路交通事故預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行研究,旨在預(yù)測(cè)道路交通事故的未來發(fā)展趨勢(shì),為交通管理部門制定防控對(duì)策和開展宣傳教育工作提供理論支持,同時(shí)提供清晰的交通安全發(fā)展形勢(shì),有利于政府制定相應(yīng)的社會(huì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。通過對(duì)該市社會(huì)發(fā)展基本狀況、道路交通發(fā)展基本狀況及道路交通事故統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的分析,得出在交通四要素方面導(dǎo)致交通事故發(fā)生的相關(guān)影響因素,并總結(jié)事故特點(diǎn)找出導(dǎo)致事故發(fā)生的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)所在。結(jié)合上述定性分析,本文采取了多元線性回歸理論、灰色模型理論、多層遞階方法三種理論方法,基于該中等城市道路交通事故統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)建立相應(yīng)的道路交通事故預(yù)測(cè)模型,并對(duì)該市道路交通事故數(shù)值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),綜合對(duì)比分析各模型曲線擬合程度、預(yù)測(cè)誤差、優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)及適用范圍等,從而得到影響因子標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化多層遞階預(yù)測(cè)模型在預(yù)測(cè)長(zhǎng)周期未來年份的交通事故方面有較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度,并適用于該城市道路交通事故預(yù)測(cè)工作的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Based on the project of road traffic safety planning in a medium city, this paper deeply analyzes the characteristics and background of the current situation of road traffic safety in China. With the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of travel demand and travel quality, the number of motor vehicles in China is increasing rapidly. The proliferation of too fast motor vehicles and drivers poses new challenges to the already fragile traffic safety environment. The total amount of road traffic accidents has been high, seriously endangering the safety of life and property of our people. Therefore, how to effectively prevent the occurrence of road traffic accidents and improve the road traffic safety environment has become the primary task of the road traffic management department. Based on the background of the planning project, this paper studies the prediction of road traffic accidents in a medium-sized city for the purpose of predicting the future development trend of road traffic accidents. It provides theoretical support for traffic management departments to formulate preventive and control countermeasures and carry out propaganda and education work, and at the same time provides clear situation of traffic safety development, which is helpful for the government to formulate corresponding social development goals and development strategies. Based on the analysis of the basic situation of the city's social development, the basic condition of the road traffic development and the statistical data of the road traffic accidents, the relevant influencing factors of the traffic accidents in the four aspects of the traffic are obtained. And summed up the characteristics of the accident to find out the key points leading to the accident. Combined with the above qualitative analysis, this paper adopts three theoretical methods: multivariate linear regression theory, grey model theory and multilevel hierarchical method. Based on the statistical data of road traffic accidents in this medium city, the corresponding road traffic accident prediction model is established. The numerical value of road traffic accident in this city is forecasted, and the fitting degree of each model curve, prediction error, advantages and disadvantages and applicable range are compared and analyzed synthetically. It is concluded that the standardized multilevel hierarchical prediction model of influencing factors has a high prediction accuracy in predicting traffic accidents in long period future years, and it is suitable for the urban road traffic accident prediction work.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491.31

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本文編號(hào)：1895103