本文選題：風(fēng)險分析 + 粗糙集理論��； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著工業(yè)化的發(fā)展,危險貨物的生產(chǎn)量與運輸量與日俱增。據(jù)統(tǒng)計,我國950%以上的危險貨物涉及異地運輸問題。危險貨物一般都具有特殊的理化性質(zhì),如若處理不當(dāng)發(fā)生事故,后果將是十分嚴(yán)重的,容易造成人身傷亡、財產(chǎn)損毀或環(huán)境污染等問題,所以它的運輸不同于普通貨物的運輸,更多的是關(guān)系到國家和人民的生命財產(chǎn)。本文基于這方面原因考慮,分析了危險貨物道路運輸中存在的風(fēng)險,建立相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險模型,通過對模型的求解來優(yōu)化運輸路徑,最終達(dá)到有效降低風(fēng)險的目的。同時,根據(jù)危險貨物道路運輸風(fēng)險分析所得出的結(jié)論制定相應(yīng)的運輸風(fēng)險控制對策,具有較為廣泛的指導(dǎo)意義。本文首先對危險貨物的概念作了簡要概述,分析了近十年來我國發(fā)生的100起危險貨物運輸事故,并從時間、路段、天氣情況、危險貨物種類、運輸車輛類型、事故類型、事故原因等方面進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計分析,得出危險貨物運輸?shù)闹T多風(fēng)險影響因素。利用粗糙集理論對影響因素的屬性重要度進(jìn)行排序,找出造成運輸事故的主要因素和次要因素。構(gòu)建危險貨物運輸風(fēng)險評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與流程,從事故率與事故后果兩方面進(jìn)行評價。揭示危險貨物運輸路徑優(yōu)化問題的內(nèi)涵,以標(biāo)準(zhǔn)車輛路徑問題為基礎(chǔ),針對危險廢物回收問題,建立了同時考慮運輸成本和運輸風(fēng)險的VRP模型,通過對四種現(xiàn)代啟發(fā)式算法作比較,基于遺傳算法在求解VRP問題上的優(yōu)勢,解出一組模型的帕累托最優(yōu)解。最后,本文提出了危險貨物運輸風(fēng)險的控制流程和控制技術(shù),從整個運輸過程中的人、車、物、環(huán)境、管理五個方面入手,給出了相應(yīng)具體的危險貨物運輸管理控制對策。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization, the production and transportation of dangerous goods are increasing day by day. According to statistics, more than 950% of dangerous goods in China are involved in transportation in different places. Dangerous goods generally have special physical and chemical properties. If an accident is improperly handled, the consequences will be very serious and will easily lead to personal injury, property damage or environmental pollution. Therefore, its transportation is different from the transportation of ordinary goods. More is related to the life and property of the country and people. Based on these reasons, this paper analyzes the risks existing in the road transportation of dangerous goods, establishes the corresponding risk model, optimizes the transportation route by solving the model, and finally achieves the goal of reducing the risk effectively. At the same time, according to the conclusion of risk analysis of road transportation of dangerous goods, it is of great significance to formulate the corresponding risk control countermeasures. This paper first gives a brief overview of the concept of dangerous goods, analyzes 100 accidents of dangerous goods transportation in China in the past ten years, and analyzes the time, road sections, weather conditions, types of dangerous goods, types of transport vehicles, types of accidents, etc. The causes of accidents and other aspects of statistical analysis, the transport of dangerous goods risk factors. Using rough set theory to rank the attribute importance of the influencing factors and find out the main factors and secondary factors that cause the transportation accidents. The risk assessment standard and process of dangerous goods transportation are constructed, and the accident rate and accident consequence are evaluated. This paper reveals the connotation of the route optimization problem for dangerous goods transportation. Based on the standard vehicle routing problem and the hazardous waste recovery problem, a VRP model considering both transportation cost and transportation risk is established. By comparing four modern heuristic algorithms, based on the advantage of genetic algorithm in solving VRP problem, the Pareto optimal solution of a set of models is obtained. Finally, this paper puts forward the control flow and control technology of dangerous goods transportation risk, starting with the five aspects of people, vehicles, objects, environment and management in the whole transportation process, gives the corresponding concrete management and control countermeasures of dangerous goods transportation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U492.336.3

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