本文選題：臨界簇模型 + 安全出口距離��； 參考：《蘭州交通大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國家和地區(qū)社會生產(chǎn)力的發(fā)展、科學技術的進步以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的調整,城鎮(zhèn)化速度日益加快,城市社區(qū)成為人們長期定居與生活的首選之地,據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計中國約有50%的人口居住在城市社區(qū)內(nèi),社區(qū)的規(guī)劃、建設以及構造成為保證社區(qū)居民生命與財產(chǎn)安全的重要因素。由于城市社區(qū)人口的密集性和突發(fā)事故下的感染性,使相關部門對社區(qū)的自我疏散能力和相對應急方案日益重視。對于社區(qū)大規(guī)模的人口與財產(chǎn)的轉移行為,必須提前對社區(qū)路網(wǎng)中每條道路的疏散能力有一定的了解,同時要對突發(fā)事故下的疏散方向有一定的把握,因此,研究應急疏散與疏散風險問題至關重要。在目前關于應急疏散的研究中,Cova和Church提出的臨界簇模型(CCM)是一個相當有發(fā)展前景的評價模型,應用在應急疏散中,將被實施救援措施的被困人員數(shù)結合當下疏散路徑的容量需求,通過分割區(qū)域尋找路網(wǎng)中特定節(jié)點的最大風險集群來確定此節(jié)點的最極端、最不易布置應急工具的疏散條件,從而得出對整片區(qū)域道路網(wǎng)絡的疏散風險評價。對于疏散過程中人員的行為模式和大規(guī)模的避難人群對疏散方向的盲目從眾與隨機性,我們利用理論分析和數(shù)學建模的方法,計算社區(qū)內(nèi)每條道路的風險值,為突發(fā)事件下的應急疏散提供理論基礎和技術支持。CCM引入?yún)?shù)少,其實質是在局部尋優(yōu)的基礎上進行全局優(yōu)化的過程,是應急交通疏散風險評價的可靠模型。鑒于應急交通疏散問題在保障城市社區(qū)安全方面的重要作用,考慮到突發(fā)事件下疏散過程中社區(qū)安全出口位置和距離對疏散本身的重要性,本研究在CCM的基礎上,通過考慮安全出口位置在不同距離范圍對應急交通疏散的影響同時結合疏散中的組織人員對疏散方向的調整,分析了疏散風險與避難人群和安全出口之間距離的正相關關系,即避難人群越靠近安全出口其疏散風險越低,對CCM加以改進。顧及到現(xiàn)實中社區(qū)多方位的安全出口設置對居民疏散路徑選擇的影響,本文將引入單源多向最短距離算法,將距離的因素結合到了靜態(tài)的模型中。這些改進拓展了CCM在區(qū)域應急交通疏散風險評價方面的應用。最后,在GIS的支持下,針對實際的社區(qū)道路交通網(wǎng)進行了簡單的模型應用。GIS能對具有空間特征的信息進行可視化表達,同時,由于GIS應用中所用到的繪圖軟件MapInfo的計算功能對大數(shù)據(jù)信息失效,本文將采用VC++代替Map Basic實現(xiàn)拓撲建立后的方向調整與風險計算。得出的風險指數(shù)有助于相關管理部門的道路改造和應急交通指揮方案的制定,為針對社區(qū)多方位的避難場所實施不同營救方案提供科學依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the development of national and regional social productive forces, the progress of science and technology and the adjustment of industrial structure, the speed of urbanization is accelerating day by day, and urban communities have become the first choice for people to settle and live for a long time. According to incomplete statistics, about 50% of the population in China live in urban communities. The planning, construction and construction of communities have become an important factor to ensure the life and property safety of community residents. Due to the population density in urban communities and the infective nature of sudden accidents, the departments concerned pay more and more attention to the ability of self-evacuation of communities and the relative emergency plans. For the large-scale population and property transfer behavior in the community, we must have a certain understanding of the evacuation ability of each road in the community network ahead of time, and at the same time, we must have a certain assurance of the evacuation direction under the emergency, so, It is very important to study the problem of emergency evacuation and evacuation risk. In the current research on emergency evacuation, the critical cluster model proposed by Cova and Church is a promising evaluation model, which is used in emergency evacuation. The number of people trapped by the rescue measures is combined with the capacity demand of the current evacuation path, and the maximum risk cluster of the specific node in the road network can be found by dividing the area to determine the most extreme and the most difficult to arrange the evacuation conditions of the emergency tools. Thus, the evacuation risk assessment of the whole regional road network is obtained. For the behavior pattern of people in the evacuation process and the blind conformity and randomness of the evacuation direction, we use the method of theoretical analysis and mathematical modeling to calculate the risk value of every road in the community. To provide theoretical basis and technical support for emergency evacuation under emergency. CCM introduces less parameters, its essence is the process of global optimization on the basis of local optimization, which is a reliable model for risk assessment of emergency traffic evacuation. In view of the important role of emergency traffic evacuation in ensuring the safety of urban communities, considering the importance of community safety exit location and distance to evacuation itself in the process of emergency evacuation, this study is based on CCM. By considering the influence of safety exit location on emergency traffic evacuation in different distance range and combining with the adjustment of evacuation direction by organization personnel in evacuation, this paper analyzes the positive correlation between evacuation risk and the distance between asylum crowd and safety exit. In other words, the safer the safe exit, the lower the risk of evacuation. The CCM is improved. Considering the influence of community multi-directional safety exit setting on residents' evacuation path selection, this paper introduces the single source multi-directional shortest distance algorithm, and combines the distance factor into the static model. These improvements extend the application of CCM in the risk assessment of regional emergency traffic evacuation. Finally, with the support of GIS, a simple model for the actual community road traffic network is proposed, which can be used to visualize the information with spatial characteristics, and at the same time, Because the calculation function of MapInfo, a drawing software used in GIS application, is invalid to big data information, this paper uses VC instead of Map Basic to realize the direction adjustment and risk calculation after topology establishment. The obtained risk index is helpful to the road reconstruction and emergency traffic command plan of the relevant management departments, and provides scientific basis for implementing different rescue schemes for the multi-directional refuge sites in the community.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491

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本文編號：1861101