本文選題：快速路匝道控制 + 短時交通流預測��； 參考：《吉林大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國社會、經(jīng)濟的飛速發(fā)展，城市規(guī)模的日益擴大，機動車保有量的迅速增長，城市尤其是特大城市的道路通行能力已經(jīng)開始嚴重無法滿足交通需求�？焖俾肪哂械目焖�、舒適、高容量的特點吸引了越來越多的城市建設(shè)者，快速路在提供大容量交通走廊、屏蔽過境交通、調(diào)節(jié)城市路網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、優(yōu)化土地利用布局等方面發(fā)揮了巨大作用，取得了很好的社會收益。然而，持續(xù)高速增長的交通需求正在削弱這種收益，城市快速路的交通安全問題和交通擁擠問題開始凸顯并日益嚴重。許多城市的快速路被戲稱為“流動的停車場”。匝道控制技術(shù)作為快速路交通控制的重要手段，被證明是解決快速路交通擁堵問題十分有效的辦法，因此對城市快速路匝道控制算法及相關(guān)理論的研究是很有必要且有意義的。 快速路匝道控制主要包括入口和出口控制兩方面。通過入口匝道控制調(diào)節(jié)進入快速路主線的車流，從數(shù)量和時間兩個方面對入口匝道車輛進行控制，可以減少其對主線車輛的影響，，保證快速路的安全性及運行效率。通過出口匝道控制，減少匝道駛出車輛對連接輔路車流及下游相鄰交叉口的影響，可以在保證快速路車輛順利安全駛出的同時，減輕其對相連道路的干擾。此外，通過對匝道與相鄰交叉口的協(xié)調(diào)控制可以提升控制效果，促使全局最優(yōu)。 本文針對當前快速路控制系統(tǒng)研究中的熱點問題，從匝道控制及其與相鄰交叉口的協(xié)調(diào)控制兩方面進行研究，提出了在短時交通流預測條件下基于模糊理論的入口匝道控制模型，分析了匝道與相鄰交叉口的協(xié)調(diào)控制策略，采用仿真方式對模型和策略的實時效果進行了驗證。本文主要研究內(nèi)容分為以下五部分： （1）通過閱讀大量國內(nèi)外文獻，對快速路控制系統(tǒng)研究現(xiàn)狀進行總結(jié)后，針對快速路系統(tǒng)的交通特性，從功能、流量分布特性、速度與密度分布特性及交通波特性等幾個方面對快速路的交通運行狀態(tài)進行了仔細描述和總結(jié)，提出了當前研究的主要成果及研究思路，分析了可能存在的不足之處，并據(jù)此設(shè)計了本文的研究思路和研究內(nèi)容。 （2）根據(jù)對現(xiàn)有匝道控制理論的理解和總結(jié)，提出了在交通流預測條件下進行模糊控制器的設(shè)計，結(jié)合基于回聲狀態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的時間序列預測方法對短時交通流進行預測，在此基礎(chǔ)上采用模糊理論設(shè)計了控制模型并采用仿真方式進行驗證，證明了控制方法的有效性。 （3）通過分析匝道及銜接交叉口的關(guān)聯(lián)性，提出了基于系統(tǒng)資源整合的匝道及銜接交叉口協(xié)調(diào)控制方法，設(shè)定排隊長度、擁堵指數(shù)及延誤等評價參數(shù)，并對參數(shù)的產(chǎn)生和計算過程進行了詳細分析。 （4）通過建立基于VISSIM和MATLAB的仿真環(huán)境，對上述的短時交通流預測下的入口匝道模糊控制算法和基于系統(tǒng)整合的匝道及銜接交叉口協(xié)調(diào)控制方法進行了實驗?zāi)M，證明了方法及控制策略的可行性和有效性。 （5）總結(jié)全文的研究內(nèi)容和思路及本文的研究成果，提出在研究過程中可能存在的不足之處，展望該研究領(lǐng)域未來的發(fā)展方向。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's society, the economy, the expansion of urban scale, the rapid growth of the quantity of motor vehicles, the traffic capacity of the cities, especially the megacities, has begun to seriously fail to meet the demand for traffic. The fast, comfortable and high capacity characteristics of the expressway have attracted more and more urban builders, and the express way is in the way. It has played a great role in providing large capacity traffic corridors, shielding transit traffic, regulating urban network structure and optimizing the layout of land use, and has achieved good social benefits. However, the sustained high speed increasing traffic demand is weakening this income. The problem of traffic safety and traffic congestion in urban expressway has begun to highlight and date. The fast road in many cities is called the "mobile parking lot". The ramp control technology, as an important means of the expressway traffic control, is proved to be a very effective way to solve the problem of traffic congestion in expressway. Therefore, it is very necessary and meaningful to study the ramp control algorithm and related theories of urban expressway.
The ramp control of the expressway mainly includes two aspects of entrance and exit control. The traffic flow which controls the main line through the ramp is controlled from two aspects of the number and time, which can reduce the impact on the main line vehicles, ensure the safety and efficiency of the expressway. Control through the ramp through the exit ramp, Reducing the influence of the ramp driving vehicle on the connecting auxiliary road traffic and the downstream adjacent intersection can reduce the interference to the connected roads while ensuring the smooth and safe exit of the expressway vehicles. In addition, the control effect can be improved by the coordinated control of the ramp and adjacent intersections, and the global optimization can be promoted.
In view of the hot issues in the study of the current expressway control system, this paper studies the two aspects of the ramp control and the coordinated control of the adjacent intersection, and puts forward the ramp control model based on the fuzzy theory in the short time traffic flow prediction, analyzes the coordinated control strategy of the ramp and the adjacent intersection, and uses the simulation square. The real time effect of the model and strategy is verified. The main contents of this paper are divided into five parts:
(1) after reading a large number of domestic and foreign documents and summarizing the research status of the express way control system, the traffic characteristics of express road system are carefully described and summarized from several aspects, such as function, flow distribution characteristics, velocity and density distribution characteristics and traffic Potter, and put forward the current research. The main achievements and research ideas are analyzed, and the possible deficiencies are analyzed. Accordingly, the research ideas and research contents are designed accordingly.
(2) according to the understanding and summary of the existing ramp control theory, the design of the fuzzy controller is proposed under the condition of traffic flow prediction, and the short-term traffic flow is predicted by the time series prediction method based on the echo state network. On this basis, the fuzzy theory is used to design the control model and be verified by the simulation method. The effectiveness of the control method is proved.
(3) through the analysis of the relevance of the ramp and the junction intersection, a coordinated control method of the ramp and the junction intersection based on the integration of the system resources is proposed, and the queuing length, congestion index and delay are set up, and the production and calculation process of the parameters are analyzed in detail.
(4) through the establishment of the simulation environment based on VISSIM and MATLAB, the fuzzy control algorithm of the ramp and the system integrated ramp and the coordinated control method based on the system integration are simulated, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the method and control strategy are proved.
(5) to sum up the research contents and ideas of the full text and the research results of this paper, put forward the possible shortcomings in the study process, and look forward to the future development direction of the research field.

【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491

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本文編號：1838935