本文選題：降雨 + 軌跡數(shù)據(jù)　； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量在過去的十幾年中快速增長(zhǎng),使得城市交通系統(tǒng)的供需矛盾越來越突出,在特大城市中,交通擁堵正趨于常態(tài)。降雨天氣使路面濕滑,降低路面附著系數(shù),影響駕駛員的行車視線和車輛的操控性能,進(jìn)一步降低人們的出行體驗(yàn)。研究降雨對(duì)交通出行的影響,為管理者制定科學(xué)有效的交通管理措施和應(yīng)急預(yù)案提供一定的依據(jù),對(duì)于城市居民的交通出行有一定的意義。出租車GPS系統(tǒng)的普及與發(fā)展,為我們提供了一種新的方法,可以更簡(jiǎn)單全面的獲取交通信息。本文基于2012年11月份的氣象數(shù)據(jù)和出租車軌跡數(shù)據(jù),研究了降雨對(duì)交通出行的影響。主要分為三個(gè)部分:一是從軌跡數(shù)據(jù)中提取出行OD,研究了降雨對(duì)出行數(shù)量的影響以及對(duì)OD分布的影響,應(yīng)用地圖匹配的成果,將OD點(diǎn)落入網(wǎng)格化的路網(wǎng)中,以顏色表示密度,使得結(jié)果不僅直觀,還可以根據(jù)路網(wǎng)將點(diǎn)還原到實(shí)際地圖中;二是以北京市快速路、主干路和次干路為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用配對(duì)樣本T檢驗(yàn)方法,研究了降雨對(duì)各等級(jí)道路路段平均速度和路段自由流速度的影響,同時(shí)運(yùn)用軌跡點(diǎn)中包含的速度信息,研究了降雨對(duì)速度在空間分布上的影響;三是以北京西站、北京南站和北京站為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用空間自相關(guān)分析,研究了降雨對(duì)大型交通樞紐周邊擁堵情況的影響。本文的研究結(jié)果表明,降雨對(duì)出行OD數(shù)量的影響與降雨量以及當(dāng)天是否為休息日有關(guān);非降雨條件下,出行OD分布最密的區(qū)域集中在三環(huán)內(nèi),而降雨條件下出行OD分布最密的區(qū)域集中在各大交通樞紐,交通管理者應(yīng)重點(diǎn)關(guān)注北京西站、北京南站、北京站、首都國(guó)際機(jī)場(chǎng)、五棵松地鐵站和工人體育場(chǎng)北路與三里屯路交叉口這幾個(gè)區(qū)域,通過出租車調(diào)度保障居民對(duì)出行的需求;降雨條件下,快速路的路段自由流速度的折減比例約為3%-3.5%,主干路的路段自由流速度的折減比例約為6.5%-7%;降雨對(duì)快速路的路段平均速度影響較大,隨著降雨量的增大,路段速度在折減比例上也有一定增長(zhǎng),小雨條件下路段速度折減比例約為3%-3.5%,大雨條件下可達(dá)到7%-7.5%;降雨對(duì)環(huán)路中南北走向的道路的影響程度比對(duì)東西走向的道路的影響程度大,對(duì)二環(huán)、三環(huán)的影響程度比對(duì)四環(huán)的影響程度大,同時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn),機(jī)場(chǎng)高速、京石高速、藍(lán)靛廠南路、西直門北大街等道路受降雨影響最大,在雨天易產(chǎn)生擁堵,出行上可避開這些道路;大型交通樞紐周邊普遍為擁堵易發(fā)點(diǎn),雨天應(yīng)多關(guān)注樞紐周邊道路交通的疏導(dǎo)。論文中提出的基于出租車軌跡數(shù)據(jù)研究降雨對(duì)交通出行影響的方法,具有一定的參考意義,在后續(xù)的研究中,可以在此基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)加以完善,進(jìn)行更深入的研究。
[Abstract]:The rapid growth of vehicle ownership in the past ten years has made the contradiction between supply and demand of urban transportation system more and more prominent. In mega-cities, traffic congestion is tending to normal. Rain weather makes the road wet and slippery, reduces the adhesion coefficient of the road surface, affects the driver's driving line of sight and the control performance of the vehicle, and further reduces people's travel experience. The research on the effect of rainfall on traffic trip provides a certain basis for managers to formulate scientific and effective traffic management measures and emergency plans, and has a certain significance for urban residents' traffic travel. The popularization and development of taxi GPS system provide us with a new method to obtain traffic information more simply and comprehensively. Based on the meteorological data and taxi track data in November 2012, the effects of rainfall on traffic travel are studied in this paper. It is mainly divided into three parts: first, the travel ODs are extracted from the track data, and the effects of rainfall on the trip quantity and OD distribution are studied. The OD points fall into the gridded road network with the result of map matching, and the density is represented by color. The results are not only intuitionistic, but also can be restored to the actual map according to the road network. Secondly, taking Beijing Expressway, main Road and Subtrunk Road as the research object, the method of paired sample T test is used. The influence of rainfall on the average speed and free flow velocity of each grade road section is studied, and the influence of rainfall on the spatial distribution of velocity is studied by using the velocity information contained in the track point. The spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to study the influence of rainfall on the congestion around the large transportation hub in Beijing South Railway Station and Beijing Railway Station. The results show that the effect of rainfall on OD is related to the amount of rainfall and whether the day is a rest day. Under the condition of non-rainfall, the area with the densest OD distribution is concentrated in the three rings. However, the areas with the densest OD distribution under rainfall conditions are concentrated in major transport hubs. Traffic administrators should focus on Beijing West Railway Station, Beijing South Railway Station, Beijing Station, Capital International Airport, Wukesong subway station and the intersection of North Road and Sanlitun Road of the Workers' Stadium ensure the residents' demand for travel through taxi dispatching; under the conditions of rainfall, The reduction ratio of free flow velocity on expressway is about 3-3.5. the reduction ratio of free flow velocity on trunk road is about 6.5-7.The rainfall has a great influence on the average speed of expressway, and with the increase of rainfall, The speed of road sections has also increased to a certain extent. Under the condition of light rain, the reduction ratio of road speed is about 3% -3.5%, and under heavy rain conditions it can reach 7- 7.5%. The rain has a greater impact on the roads in the middle and north directions of the ring road than on the roads going east and west. The impact on the second and third rings is greater than that on the fourth ring. At the same time, it is found that roads such as Airport Expressway, Jingshi Expressway, Lanindigo South Road and Xizhimen North Street are the most affected by rainfall, and are prone to congestion on rainy days. Travel can avoid these roads; large transport hubs around the general congestion prone point, rainy days should pay more attention to the hub around the road traffic dredging. The method proposed in this paper to study the effect of rainfall on traffic trip based on taxi track data has some reference significance. In the following research, we can continue to improve it and carry out more in-depth research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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