本文選題：城市交通　切入點：交通結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《北京交通大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國民經(jīng)濟水平不斷提高,我國城市交通進入快速發(fā)展期,機動車保有量持續(xù)高速增長,導致“城市交通環(huán)境污染”和“停車難”問題日益凸顯。本文從我國居民出行結(jié)構(gòu)出發(fā),建立以低碳為目標的交通結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型,通過優(yōu)化交通出行結(jié)構(gòu)減少機動車出行,在降低交通CO2排放的同時,從根本上壓縮了基本停車需求,針對需求進一步研究城市公共停車場選址建設(shè)問題。論文研究內(nèi)容主要包括以下幾個方面:第一,本文在分析城市公共停車場類型和特征指標的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)實際調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)研究對比了居住類、商業(yè)類、醫(yī)院類、P+R類等不同類別停車場的供需關(guān)系,總結(jié)了北京市的重點停車問題,并進一步探討了影響城市公共停車場選址的主要因素。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),居住類和大型醫(yī)院類停車場的泊位周轉(zhuǎn)率和高峰停放指數(shù)偏高,P+R停車場的停放特征指數(shù)與其使用性質(zhì)及管理政策有關(guān),而部分商業(yè)類停車場利用率相對較低。因此,停車場停車特征影響城市公共停車場選址,不同類別停車場的停車特征存在一定差異。第二,考慮到機動車保有量的快速增長是導致停車需求不能得到滿足的最直接原因,本文在分析城市交通碳排放測算方法的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了低碳目標的城市客運交通結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型,并以北京市為例,結(jié)合低碳目標的交通結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型探討了低碳交通出行模式和基本情景下出行模式碳排放情況。結(jié)果表明,2020年在低碳交通出行模式下CO2排放量將比基本情景減少12.3%,小汽車出行比例將降低5%,公共交通出行比例將提高8%�；诘吞寄繕说某鞘锌瓦\交通結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化能顯著降低目標年機動車保有量和出行率,居民的出行方式將以公共交通出行為主導,出行方式更加合理,為進行更為合理的停車規(guī)劃奠定了基礎(chǔ)。第三,停車位需求與居民出行方式相關(guān),傳統(tǒng)的停車需求預測方法并未考慮居民出行結(jié)構(gòu)。本文提出了基于居民出行的停車位需求預測方法,以城市公共停車場選址原則為依據(jù),建立了城市公共停車場選址模型,提出了基于matlab求解產(chǎn)銷不平衡運輸問題的算法設(shè)計。案例分析結(jié)果表明,低碳情景下的城市交通出行結(jié)構(gòu)能夠顯著減少停車位需求和建設(shè)費用,而基礎(chǔ)情景下的停車位缺口約為低碳模式下的3.7倍,說明改善城市交通出行結(jié)構(gòu)是改善交通污染和停車問題的重要途徑。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of the national economic level, the urban traffic in China has entered a period of rapid development, and the number of motor vehicles has continued to grow at a high speed. The problems of "pollution of urban traffic environment" and "parking difficulty" become more and more prominent. Starting from the travel structure of residents in China, this paper establishes an optimization model of traffic structure aiming at low carbon, which can reduce the travel of motor vehicles by optimizing the structure of traffic travel. At the same time of reducing the traffic CO2 emission, the basic parking demand is reduced fundamentally, and the problem of urban public parking location construction is further studied in the light of the demand. The main contents of this paper include the following aspects: first, Based on the analysis of the types and characteristics of urban public parking lots, this paper studies and compares the supply and demand relationships among different types of parking lots, such as residential, commercial, hospital and so on, according to the actual investigation data. This paper summarizes the key parking problems in Beijing, and further discusses the main factors that affect the location of urban public parking lots. The berth turnover rate and peak parking index of residential and large hospital car parks are relatively high. The parking characteristic index of P R car park is related to the nature of use and management policy, while the utilization ratio of some commercial car parks is relatively low. Parking characteristics affect the location of urban public parking, and the parking characteristics of different types of parking are different. Second, considering that the rapid growth of vehicle ownership is the most direct reason leading to the parking demand can not be met. In this paper, based on the analysis of urban traffic carbon emission measurement method, a low carbon target urban passenger transport structure optimization model is established, and taking Beijing as an example, Based on the model of low carbon target traffic structure optimization, the carbon emissions of low carbon transport travel mode and basic travel mode are discussed. The results show that CO2 emissions will be less in 2020 than in the basic scenario in the low carbon transport travel mode. 12.3The proportion of car trips will be reduced by 5%, the proportion of public transportation travel will be increased by 8%. The optimization of urban passenger transport structure based on low-carbon targets can significantly reduce the number of motor vehicles and the travel rate in the target year. Residents' travel mode will be dominated by public transportation, and the travel mode will be more reasonable, which will lay the foundation for more reasonable parking planning. Third, the demand for parking space is related to the residents' travel mode. The traditional parking demand forecasting method does not consider the resident travel structure. This paper puts forward the parking space demand forecasting method based on the resident travel, and establishes the urban public parking location model based on the urban public parking location principle. An algorithm for solving unbalanced transportation problem based on matlab is proposed. The results of case study show that the urban traffic travel structure can significantly reduce the demand for parking spaces and construction costs under low carbon scenarios. The gap of parking space in the basic scenario is about 3.7 times higher than that in the low-carbon model, which indicates that improving the urban transportation structure is an important way to improve the traffic pollution and parking problems.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491.7

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