發(fā)布時間：2018-02-28 16:23

  本文關鍵詞： 交通事故 酒駕處罰 中斷時間序列分析　出處：《中國疾病預防控制中心》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：研究目的:了解中國目前交通事故死亡率現(xiàn)狀以及評估中國酒駕處罰制定后的效果,本課題將分析中國人群交通事故死亡現(xiàn)狀,評價2011年酒駕入刑加重處罰條列前后交通事故死亡率的差別,來間接評價酒駕處罰的執(zhí)行效果,為進一步完善酒后駕駛相關法規(guī)提供依據。資料與方法:數據來源于中國疾病預防控制中心全國疾病監(jiān)測系統(tǒng),以及公安部全國道路交通事故監(jiān)測信息系統(tǒng)。采用描述性分析方法,分析了 2015年中國人群交通事故死亡水平,以及2006至2015年交通事故死亡率的變化趨勢。分析了 2006-2015年全國道路交通事故狀況,包括萬車死亡率,交通事故違法處置中酒駕所占比例等。同時,采用中斷時間序列分析方法,評估了 2011年后酒駕處罰對交通事故死亡率的影響。數據資料整理采用Excel 2007,應用SAS9.4軟件對資料進行統(tǒng)計分析,檢驗水準為0.05。結果:2015年中國總人群交通事故粗死亡率為16.46/10萬,其中男性粗死亡率為24.38/10萬、女性粗死亡率為8.40/10萬;據此推算,每年因交通事故死亡約23萬人,其中,男性約死亡17萬人,女性約死亡6萬人。除外0-14歲人群外,交通事故在不同性別人群、不同地區(qū)人群以及不同年齡組人群中都是傷害中的第一位死因。2006年至2015年中國人群交通事故標化死亡率呈現(xiàn)較為明顯的下降,由21.32/10萬下降到15.83/10萬,下降幅度為25.75%;除外0-14歲人群,不同性別、不同地區(qū)以及不同年齡組人群,交通事故死亡率均呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢。自2006-2015年來,中國涉及人員傷亡的道路交通事故起數、死亡人數、受傷人數持續(xù)下降,同時,萬車死亡率也持續(xù)下降。全國處理的道路交通違法中,飲酒和醉酒的比例呈下降趨勢。中斷時間序列分析結果顯示,總人群、男性、女性人群,以及東部、中部地區(qū)和35-69歲人群,干預前后交通事故死亡率均下降,且干預后死亡率下降幅度更為顯著(P0.05),提示酒駕處罰加速了交通事故死亡率的下降,加重的酒駕處罰條例取得一定的效果。而在西部地區(qū)、以及0-14歲人群中,干預前后交通事故死亡率都無顯著下降(P0.05),提示加重的酒駕處罰條例沒有取得降低交通事故死亡率的效果。結論:2006-2015年中國人群交通事故標化死亡率總體呈下降趨勢,萬車死亡率也持續(xù)下降。全國處理的道路交通違法中,飲酒和醉酒的比例呈下降趨勢。2011年實施的酒駕入刑的加重處罰條列,對總人群、男性、女性人群,以及東部地區(qū)、中部地區(qū)和35-69歲人群,2011年后交通事故死亡率下降幅度更為顯著。提示酒駕處罰加速了交通事故死亡率的下降,可以說明2011年酒駕入刑的加重處罰條列,對促進交通事故死亡率下降的影響已呈現(xiàn)初步效果。
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the current situation of traffic accident mortality in China and to evaluate the effect of drinking driving penalty in China. In 2011, the difference of traffic accident mortality before and after the aggravated penalty of alcohol driving was evaluated to evaluate indirectly the effect of the enforcement of the penalty. To provide the basis for the further improvement of the relevant laws and regulations on drink driving. Materials and methods: the data are from the National Disease Surveillance system of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. And the national road traffic accident monitoring information system of the Ministry of Public Security. Using the descriptive analysis method, this paper analyzes the death level of traffic accidents among Chinese people in 2015. And the changing trend of traffic accident mortality from 2006 to 2015. This paper analyzes the situation of road traffic accidents in China from 2006 to 2015, including the death rate of ten thousand vehicles, the proportion of alcohol driving in the illegal disposal of traffic accidents, etc. Meanwhile, the method of interrupting time series analysis is used. The effect of drunk driving punishment on traffic accident mortality after 2011 was evaluated. The data were collected by Excel 2007 and analyzed statistically by SAS9.4 software. The test level was 0.05. The results showed that the gross mortality rate of traffic accidents in China was 16.46% -100 000 in 2015. Among them, the crude mortality rate of males is 24.38 / 100, and the crude mortality rate of females is 8.40 / 100,000. Based on this, it is estimated that about 230,000 people die from traffic accidents every year, of which about 170,000 are males and 60,000 are females, except for those aged 0-14. Traffic accidents are the first cause of death among people of different genders, different regions and different age groups. From 2006 to 2015, the standardized mortality rate of traffic accidents among Chinese people showed a relatively significant decrease, from 21.32 to 100,000 to 15.83 to 100,000. Except for people aged 0-14, people of different sexes, different regions and different age groups, the mortality rate of traffic accidents has shown a downward trend. Since 2006-2015, the number of road traffic accidents involving casualties and the number of deaths in China have been on the decline. The number of injured people continued to decline, and the death rate of ten thousand vehicles also continued to drop. The proportion of alcohol and drunkenness in road traffic violations dealt with throughout the country showed a downward trend. Analysis of the interruption time series showed that the total population, men and women, In the eastern, central and 35-69 age groups, the mortality rate of traffic accidents decreased before and after the intervention, and the mortality rate decreased more significantly after the intervention, indicating that the penalty of drinking driving accelerated the decrease of the death rate of traffic accidents. But in the West, and in people aged 0-14, There was no significant decrease in traffic accident mortality before and after intervention, indicating that the increased drinking driving penalty regulations had no effect on reducing traffic accident mortality. Conclusion the standardized mortality rate of traffic accidents in China from 2006 to 2015 showed a downward trend. The death rate of ten thousand vehicles has also continued to decline. The proportion of alcohol and drunkenness in road traffic violations handled throughout the country is on a downward trend. In 2011, more severe penalties for alcohol driving were imposed on the general population, men, women, and the eastern region. In the central region and the population aged 35-69 years, the mortality rate of traffic accidents decreased more significantly after 2011. It is suggested that the penalty of drinking driving accelerates the decline of the death rate of traffic accidents, which can be explained by the aggravated punishment of alcohol driving in 2011. The effect on the decrease of traffic accident mortality has shown preliminary effect.
【學位授予單位】：中國疾病預防控制中心
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：R195;U491.3

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