本文關(guān)鍵詞： 投影尋蹤 粒子群 橋梁 震害評(píng)價(jià) 置信區(qū)間　出處：《世界地震工程》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：地震是我國(guó)最常見(jiàn)的自然災(zāi)害之一,強(qiáng)烈的地震往往會(huì)引起震區(qū)內(nèi)大量建筑物倒塌或損害。橋梁是是社會(huì)生命線工程的重要構(gòu)成部分,也是地震中最容易破壞的部件。如需對(duì)震區(qū)橋梁震害損失、交通可靠性、橋梁加固優(yōu)化以及救援應(yīng)急決策等方面研究,需要進(jìn)行橋梁震前的震害評(píng)估。傳統(tǒng)的震前震區(qū)橋梁震害預(yù)測(cè)的方法或多或少存在主觀性的因素,且存在評(píng)估結(jié)果穩(wěn)定性不高的情況。借助投影尋蹤模型數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)聚類方法,構(gòu)建了基于投影尋蹤方法的生命線橋梁震害預(yù)測(cè)模型,結(jié)合粒子群計(jì)算機(jī)算法優(yōu)化投影方向參數(shù),將橋梁震害預(yù)測(cè)的多維評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)投影計(jì)算成一維數(shù)值,并根據(jù)投影值的大小以及置信區(qū)間對(duì)橋梁的震害進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),通過(guò)兩組數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證模型,結(jié)果基本達(dá)到了預(yù)期,泛化能力較好。
[Abstract]:Earthquake is one of the most common natural disasters in China. Strong earthquakes often cause a large number of buildings to collapse or damage in the earthquake area. Bridge is an important component of social lifeline engineering. It is also the most easily damaged component in the earthquake. For example, the damage loss of bridges in the earthquake area, the reliability of traffic, the optimization of bridge reinforcement and the emergency decision of rescue and so on are studied. It is necessary to evaluate the earthquake damage of bridges before earthquake. The traditional prediction method of bridge damage in seismic area before earthquake has subjective factors more or less, and the stability of evaluation results is not high. By means of projection pursuit model, mathematical statistical clustering method is used to predict the damage of bridges. The prediction model of seismic damage of lifeline bridges based on projection pursuit method is constructed. The projection direction parameters are optimized by using particle swarm optimization algorithm, and the multi-dimensional evaluation indexes of bridge damage prediction are projected into one-dimensional values. According to the magnitude of the projection value and the confidence interval, the earthquake damage of the bridge is predicted, and the model is verified by two groups of data. The results basically reach the expectation and the generalization ability is good.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)海洋生態(tài)與環(huán)境教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：山東省優(yōu)秀中青年科學(xué)家獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)基金(ZR2016DB25) 青島市博士后應(yīng)用研究項(xiàng)目 中央高校基本業(yè)務(wù)研究經(jīng)費(fèi)
【分類號(hào)】：U442.55

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