本文關(guān)鍵詞： PSC檢查 缺陷因素 因子分析 Logit回歸 事故　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：減少和控制船舶交通事故的發(fā)生,一直以來是海運(yùn)界研究和解決的首要問題。為了有效的減少和控制船舶交通事故的發(fā)生,船舶安全管理的重點(diǎn)由事故發(fā)生后的經(jīng)驗(yàn)型安全管理向事前可預(yù)防的安全管理轉(zhuǎn)變,這就必須明確事故和導(dǎo)致事故發(fā)生的潛在因素之間的相互關(guān)系,以使安全管理更有針對(duì)性的做好事前的可預(yù)防。PSC檢查結(jié)果可以反映船舶自首次接受檢查到現(xiàn)在或報(bào)廢以來的安全檢查狀況,檢查的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和記錄的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)一性、客觀性,且保存在數(shù)據(jù)庫中,比較全面反映了船舶信息和船舶的安全隱患狀況,有效的利用該數(shù)據(jù)分析研究船舶安全狀況以及和事故之間的關(guān)系,對(duì)提升船舶安全管理等方面具有十分重要的意義。本文從船舶的缺陷項(xiàng)因素入手,收集分析2000年到2013年IMO網(wǎng)站統(tǒng)計(jì)的2300起船舶事故案列和東京備忘錄和巴黎備忘錄中的PSC檢查數(shù)據(jù),得到600起事故船舶和600起非事故船舶數(shù)據(jù)樣本,利用因子分析方法提取PSC檢查數(shù)據(jù)的幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵公因子,運(yùn)用邏輯斯諦回歸(Logit)分析方法明確提取的事故潛在因素的公因子與船舶事故之間的相關(guān)性,確定PSC檢查得到的危險(xiǎn)因素與船舶事故之間的安全評(píng)估模型;明確了事故發(fā)生和以PSC檢查結(jié)果為對(duì)象的事故潛在因素的關(guān)聯(lián)性,整體的準(zhǔn)確性達(dá)到80%左右。根據(jù)模型可知,無線電通信、推進(jìn)和輔助機(jī)械缺陷項(xiàng)對(duì)船舶碰撞和觸碰事故的發(fā)生比影響很大;推進(jìn)和輔助機(jī)械、無線電通信、證書和文件缺陷項(xiàng)對(duì)船舶擱淺和觸礁事故的發(fā)生比影響很大;船舶結(jié)構(gòu)、水密狀態(tài)、無線電通信缺陷項(xiàng)對(duì)船舶傾覆事故的發(fā)生比影響很大。但是由于船舶事故數(shù)據(jù)的限制以及相應(yīng)可查詢的PSC檢查數(shù)據(jù)的有限,這意味本文的分析不是很完整,還有很大的發(fā)展空間。
[Abstract]:Reducing and controlling the occurrence of ship traffic accidents has always been the most important problem to be studied and solved by the shipping industry. In order to effectively reduce and control the occurrence of ship traffic accidents. The emphasis of ship safety management has changed from experiential safety management after accidents to safety management that can be prevented beforehand. It is necessary to clarify the relationship between accidents and the potential factors leading to accidents. In order to make safety management more targeted to do a good job in advance of preventable. PSC inspection results can reflect the ship from the first inspection to now or since the scrapping of the safety inspection situation. The standards of inspection and the data unity and objectivity of the records, which are kept in the database, fully reflect the ship information and the hidden danger of the ship's safety. The effective use of the data to analyze and study the relationship between ship safety and accidents is of great significance to improve the safety management of ships. This paper starts with the factors of ship defects. Collect and analyze the PSC inspection data of 2300 ship accidents recorded from 2000 to 2013 on IMO website and Tokyo Memorandum and Paris Memorandum. The data samples of 600 accident ships and 600 non-accident ships were obtained, and several key common factors of PSC inspection data were extracted by factor analysis method. The correlation between the common factors of the potential factors of accidents and the ship accidents is clearly determined by the method of logit analysis. To determine the safety assessment model between the risk factors obtained from the PSC inspection and the ship accidents; The correlation between the accident occurrence and the accident potential factors which take the result of PSC inspection as the object is clarified. The overall accuracy is about 80%. According to the model, the radio communication can be seen. The propelling and auxiliary mechanical defects have great influence on the occurrence ratio of ship collision and contact accident. Propulsion and auxiliary machinery, radio communications, certificates and document defects have a great impact on the occurrence ratio of ship grounding and reef accidents; The ship structure, watertight state and radio communication defects have great influence on the occurrence ratio of ship capsizing accidents. However, due to the limitation of ship accident data and the limited number of corresponding PSC inspection data that can be queried. This means that the analysis of this paper is not very complete, there is a lot of room for development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U698.6

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