本文關(guān)鍵詞：PPP模式下高速公路項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與分擔(dān)研究　出處：《浙江海洋大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 高速公路 PPP 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)

【摘要】：現(xiàn)今,高速公路在國(guó)家綜合交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的作用越來(lái)越突出,然而傳統(tǒng)的投資模式已經(jīng)不能滿足高速公路建設(shè)需求,此時(shí),PPP模式的優(yōu)勢(shì)不斷凸顯并得到了相關(guān)政府部門(mén)的認(rèn)可。雖然PPP模式具有傳統(tǒng)投資方式所不具備的優(yōu)勢(shì),但是高速公路PPP項(xiàng)目投資資金量大、建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng)、涉及的參與方眾多,準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、合理分配風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素已經(jīng)成為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的核心任務(wù)。本文站在公共部門(mén)立場(chǎng)上,從高速公路建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀和投資現(xiàn)狀出發(fā),詳細(xì)闡述現(xiàn)階段公路建設(shè)和投資所存在不足之處,論證了高速公路項(xiàng)目引入PPP模式的必然性和優(yōu)越性。其次,在結(jié)合相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和國(guó)內(nèi)外工程實(shí)例的基礎(chǔ)上,識(shí)別并分析了高速公路PPP項(xiàng)目的4個(gè)一級(jí)指標(biāo)、12個(gè)二級(jí)指標(biāo)和33個(gè)三級(jí)指標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),通過(guò)層次分析法計(jì)算各個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)權(quán)重并結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隸屬確定整個(gè)工程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。為了進(jìn)一步完善高速公路PPP項(xiàng)目相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論,本文在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分配原則的指導(dǎo)下,運(yùn)用shapley值模型,計(jì)算出公共部門(mén)和私人部門(mén)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)比例。為了更符合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的實(shí)際情況,綜合分析項(xiàng)目參與者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)能力修正原始shapley值,使得風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的比例更加符合項(xiàng)目參與各方的實(shí)際承受能力,并能減少項(xiàng)目合作風(fēng)險(xiǎn),保證項(xiàng)目順利進(jìn)行。最后以重慶某高速公路為例,對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型和分擔(dān)模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。
[Abstract]:Today, the highway transportation network becomes more and more prominent in the country, but the traditional investment model has been unable to meet the demand of highway construction, at the same time, the advantages of PPP mode and continue to highlight the relevant government departments approval. Although the PPP model with the traditional way of investment do not have the advantage, but the amount of highway investment funds the PPP project is large, long construction period, involving many parties involved, accurate assessment of project risk, risk management has become the core task of the rational allocation of risk factors. This paper stands in the public sector position, starting from the present situation of highway construction and investment situation, elaborated the current highway construction and investment exist deficiencies, inevitability and the highway project demonstrates the advantage of the introduction of the PPP model. Secondly, on the basis of relevant literature at home and abroad and engineering examples, identification And the analysis of the PPP project of Highway 4 level indicators, 12 level two indexes and 33 level three indexes of risk calculation, the weight of each risk index and risk of the whole project to determine the membership level of risk by AHP. In order to further improve the relevant theory of risk in PPP project of highway, this paper under the guidance of the principles of risk allocation and using the Shapley value model, calculate the risk of the public and private sectors. In order to share more in line with the actual situation of risk sharing, comprehensive risk analysis of the project participants share the ability to modify the original Shapley value, the risk ratio is more consistent with the actual capacity of the parties involved in the project, and can reduce the risk of project cooperation, ensure project smoothly. Finally take the Chongqing expressway as an example, makes an empirical analysis on the risk assessment model and sharing model.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U415.1

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本文編號(hào)：1432025