本文關鍵詞：船舶航道航行安全綜合評價的研究　出處：《大連海事大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 航行安全 隱患指標 風險指標 綜合評價

【摘要】：隨著沿海地區(qū)經濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展,其所屬水域的安全性也受到了前所未有的重視。港口航道是海上交通系統(tǒng)的子系統(tǒng),其隱含的危險性、可能造成的損失以及所能接受的風險值,均依賴于安全評價。隨著航運形勢及操船環(huán)境的變化,使得僅僅依靠操船者個人的努力,已經難以確保航行安全,這就要求操船者不僅從駕駛臺去觀察和考慮問題,更需要從廣闊的空間去觀察作為操船者本身、船舶和圍繞其周圍的整體環(huán)境。本文由海上交通系統(tǒng)工程的“船～環(huán)境”關系的評價研究出發(fā),力圖對當前研究所涉及的相關理論做出總結,并嘗試將船舶航道航行安全評價區(qū)分為靜態(tài)和動態(tài)兩種評價方式,同時利用兩者優(yōu)缺互補進行加法合成實現(xiàn)綜合評價。其中,靜態(tài)評價對應于隱患指標,僅考慮構成系統(tǒng)的諸因素以及因素間的關系是否滿足安全要求,并據(jù)此作為衡量系統(tǒng)安全狀況的依據(jù)；動態(tài)評價對應于風險指標,以事故后果及后果發(fā)生的概率作為計算風險的依據(jù),評價過程僅考慮船舶航行過程中因操縱而確實存在的危險程度。針對指標評價值的計算,本文引入DHGF四元分析法結合專家問卷調查完成隱患指標評價值的計算,風險指標評價值的計算則基于受控系統(tǒng)及船舶操縱模擬實驗并輔以MATLAB擬合,最終通過對隱患指標及風險指標權重進行賦值完成綜合評價指標值的計算。通過實例驗證說明,本文采用綜合評價的方法一定程度上克服了靜態(tài)評價與動態(tài)評價兩者本身的局限性,同時也表明該方法用于評價現(xiàn)有的及改善后的操船環(huán)境對船舶航行安全的影響是可行的。
[Abstract]:With the continuous and stable economic development of coastal areas, the safety of its waters has received unprecedented attention. Port channel is the subsystem of maritime traffic system, and its hidden danger. The possible loss and the acceptable risk value all depend on the safety evaluation. With the change of shipping situation and ship operating environment, it is difficult to ensure the safety of navigation only relying on the personal efforts of the operator. This requires the operator not only from the bridge to observe and consider the problem, but also from the vast space to observe as the boat operator itself. Based on the evaluation of the relationship between ship and environment of marine traffic system engineering, this paper tries to summarize the relevant theories involved in the current research. It also tries to divide the evaluation of ship navigation safety into static and dynamic evaluation methods, at the same time, it makes use of the advantages and disadvantages of the two complementary additive synthesis to achieve the comprehensive evaluation. Among them, the static evaluation corresponds to the hidden danger index. Only considering the factors that constitute the system and whether the relationship between the factors can meet the security requirements, and based on this as the basis for measuring the security situation of the system; The dynamic evaluation corresponds to the risk index and takes the accident consequence and the probability of the consequence as the basis to calculate the risk. The evaluation process only takes into account the degree of danger due to manoeuvring in the course of the ship's navigation, and the calculation of the evaluation value of the index. This paper introduces DHGF quaternion analysis method combined with expert questionnaire to complete the evaluation of hidden danger index value calculation. The calculation of the evaluation value of the risk index is based on the simulation experiment of the controlled system and the ship maneuvering, supplemented by MATLAB fitting. Finally, by assigning the hidden danger index and the risk index weight to complete the calculation of the comprehensive evaluation index value. In this paper, the method of comprehensive evaluation has overcome the limitations of static evaluation and dynamic evaluation to some extent. It is also shown that this method is feasible to evaluate the influence of the existing and improved ship operating environment on ship navigation safety.
【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U698

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本文編號：1414533