【摘要】：安全是民航的生命線，是民航永恒的主題。隨著民航業(yè)的迅猛發(fā)展，空中交通流量不斷增加，世界各國紛紛在終端區(qū)廣泛設(shè)計并實施PBN飛行程序取代傳統(tǒng)飛行程序運行，其運行的安全性亟待需要進行科學的、定量的安全評估。基于此，本文主要對終端區(qū)內(nèi)PBN飛行程序運行時沖突風險場景進行識別，并針對風險場景建立飛行沖突風險計算模型進行定量風險分析。 本文針對進場階段交叉或匯聚交通流飛行沖突、五邊平行進近飛行沖突兩個風險場景建立飛行沖突風險計算模型。在計算模型中建立了航空器沿PBN飛行程序標稱航跡飛行時偏離標稱航跡誤差模型，在其中提出了一種基于布朗運動的隨機過程來描述因干擾因素導致航空器隨機運動的方法。因干擾因素與導航誤差導致的標稱航跡偏離量結(jié)合標稱航跡合成航空器實際飛行四維軌跡，并基于實際飛行四維軌跡獲得每時刻航空器之間的距離，，以此距離小于間隔標準而造成飛行沖突為判斷標準來計算飛行沖突概率。本文最后依杭州蕭山機場實施PBN飛行程序運行為案例，按照安全評估流程對PBN飛行程序運行進行安全評估。案例中使用HAZOP方法識別風險場景，并運用本文提到PBN飛行程序運行定量風險分析模型和Monte Carlo仿真方法計算飛行沖突概率，從而對風險場景進行定量風險分析。
[Abstract]:Safety is the lifeline of civil aviation and the eternal theme of civil aviation. With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, the air traffic flow is increasing continuously. Many countries in the world have widely designed and implemented the PBN flight program to replace the traditional flight program in the terminal area. The safety of the flight procedure needs to be scientific. Quantitative safety assessment Based on this, this paper mainly identifies the conflict risk scene of PBN flight program running in terminal area, and establishes a flight conflict risk calculation model for the risk scenario to carry out quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, a flight conflict risk calculation model is established for cross or convergent traffic flow conflict in approach stage and two risk scenarios of parallel approach flight conflict. In this paper, the error model of aircraft deviating from the nominal track along the nominal track of PBN flight procedure is established. A stochastic process based on Brownian motion is proposed to describe the random motion of aircraft caused by interference factors. The nominal track deviation caused by interference factors and navigation errors combined with the nominal track to synthesize the actual flight four-dimensional trajectory of the aircraft, and based on the actual four-dimensional trajectory of flight to obtain the distance between the aircraft at each moment, The probability of flight conflict is calculated according to the criterion of flight conflict caused by the distance less than the interval standard. In the end, according to the case of PBN flight program running at Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport, the safety evaluation of PBN flight procedure is carried out according to the safety evaluation procedure. In the case, the HAZOP method is used to identify the risk scenario, and the quantitative risk analysis model and Monte Carlo simulation method mentioned in this paper are used to calculate the flight conflict probability, thus the quantitative risk analysis of the risk scenario is carried out.
【學位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：V328

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本文編號：2275299