發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-04 05:25

  本文選題：地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)估　切入點(diǎn)：模糊決策　出處：《東南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著地鐵在城市交通系統(tǒng)中占據(jù)的地位越來(lái)越重要,地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題受到越來(lái)越多的重視。地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)系統(tǒng)是個(gè)復(fù)雜的集成系統(tǒng),不僅包括管理部門(mén)的制度規(guī)定,人員操作和設(shè)備設(shè)施的配合,還包括復(fù)雜的運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)境。在以往的國(guó)內(nèi)外研究中,地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題大多是將各個(gè)系統(tǒng)當(dāng)成獨(dú)立的個(gè)體,沒(méi)有考慮系統(tǒng)之間的影響關(guān)系,并且在對(duì)安全狀況進(jìn)行具體評(píng)估時(shí)往往采用絕對(duì)的定量計(jì)算,而忽略了其中的定性分析,從而使得評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果具有一定的片面性。為了克服以上研究弊端,本文在對(duì)地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題特性進(jìn)行深入分析的基礎(chǔ)上提出了基于二型模糊環(huán)境下的DEMATEL-ANP-VIKOR模型�？偟膩�(lái)說(shuō),本文在理論構(gòu)建和模型創(chuàng)新中有以下幾個(gè)特點(diǎn):首先,通過(guò)對(duì)地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全問(wèn)題的分析,提出從定量與定性相結(jié)合的角度對(duì)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行研究,并且考慮到定性指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)時(shí)的不確定性,本文引入了二型模糊決策理論,將專(zhuān)家意見(jiàn)通過(guò)語(yǔ)言變量轉(zhuǎn)化成合適的二型模糊數(shù)值進(jìn)行計(jì)算。另外,在對(duì)國(guó)際地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)事故統(tǒng)計(jì)和分析基礎(chǔ)上,找出影響地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全的主要因素,從而構(gòu)建了較為合理的地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。其次,基于地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題本身的多準(zhǔn)則性和定量指標(biāo)與定性指標(biāo)相結(jié)合的特點(diǎn),本文基于二型模糊理論構(gòu)建了 type-2 DEMATEL-ANP模型,不僅在type-2 DEMATEL階段計(jì)算時(shí)考慮到了指標(biāo)間的相互影響關(guān)系,通過(guò)定量化的計(jì)算構(gòu)建了準(zhǔn)則層關(guān)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖,同時(shí)利用type-2 ANP模型構(gòu)造了準(zhǔn)則層之間和準(zhǔn)則層內(nèi)部的模糊判斷矩陣,最后通過(guò)對(duì)超矩陣進(jìn)行計(jì)算和求極限得到各指標(biāo)的最終權(quán)重。最后,在type-2DEMATEL-ANP模型的基礎(chǔ)上,本文提出了混合VIKOR方法,對(duì)定量化的指標(biāo)按照傳統(tǒng)的VIKOR算法進(jìn)行計(jì)算,對(duì)定性化的指標(biāo)用提出的type-2 VIKOR方法進(jìn)行計(jì)算,通過(guò)定量和定性化的綜合評(píng)估得到最后的決策值,并在最后利用提出的地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)北京地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)中的六條線路某統(tǒng)計(jì)當(dāng)天的運(yùn)營(yíng)狀況進(jìn)行分析,從而驗(yàn)證了理論和模型的合理性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing importance of subway in the urban transportation system, more and more attention has been paid to the safety evaluation of subway operation. Subway operation system is a complex integrated system, including not only the regulations of the management department, but also the management system. The cooperation of personnel operation and equipment and facilities also includes complex operation environment. In the past researches at home and abroad, the problems of subway operation safety evaluation mostly regard each system as an independent individual, without considering the influence relationship between the systems. In order to overcome the disadvantages of the above research, the qualitative analysis is ignored and the evaluation results are one-sidedness in order to overcome the disadvantages of the above research, in order to overcome the disadvantages of the above research, the quantitative calculation is often used in the specific assessment of the security situation. Based on the in-depth analysis of the characteristics of subway safety evaluation problems, this paper puts forward the DEMATEL-ANP-VIKOR model based on the two-type fuzzy environment. In general, this paper has the following characteristics in the theoretical construction and model innovation: first of all, Based on the analysis of the safety of subway operation, this paper puts forward to study the problem from the angle of combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, and considering the uncertainty of qualitative index evaluation, this paper introduces the two-type fuzzy decision theory. In addition, on the basis of statistics and analysis of international subway operation accidents, the main factors affecting subway operation safety are found out. Therefore, a more reasonable evaluation index system of subway operation safety is constructed. Secondly, based on the characteristics of multiple criteria and quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators of subway operation safety evaluation, In this paper, the type-2 DEMATEL-ANP model is constructed based on the type 2 fuzzy theory, which not only takes into account the interaction between the indexes in the calculation of type-2 DEMATEL, but also constructs the relationship network diagram of the criterion layer through the quantitative calculation. At the same time, the fuzzy judgment matrix between criterion layer and inside criterion layer is constructed by using type-2 ANP model. Finally, the final weight of each index is obtained by calculating the supermatrix and calculating the limit. Finally, on the basis of type-2DEMATEL-ANP model, the final weight of each index is obtained. In this paper, a hybrid VIKOR method is proposed. The quantitative index is calculated according to the traditional VIKOR algorithm, the qualitative index is calculated by the proposed type-2 VIKOR method, and the final decision value is obtained through the quantitative and qualitative comprehensive evaluation. Finally, by using the proposed safety evaluation model of subway operation, the paper analyzes the operation status of a certain six lines in Beijing subway operation on the same day, and verifies the rationality of the theory and the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U298

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前7條

1 黃文虹;;成都市地鐵二號(hào)線運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)研究[J];經(jīng)營(yíng)管理者;2015年10期

2 王鐵旦;孫潔霖;彭定洪;;基于區(qū)間二型模糊集的VIKOR多屬性決策方法研究[J];價(jià)值工程;2013年29期

3 朱美虹;繆圣陶;卓駿;;基于SERVQUAL的中國(guó)快遞業(yè)服務(wù)質(zhì)量評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)證研究[J];科技管理研究;2011年08期

4 王堅(jiān)強(qiáng);;模糊多準(zhǔn)則決策方法研究綜述[J];控制與決策;2008年06期

5 崔艷萍,唐禎敏,李毅雄;城市軌道交通安全管理體系研究[J];都市快軌交通;2005年03期

6 徐澤水;基于期望值的模糊多屬性決策法及其應(yīng)用[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實(shí)踐;2004年01期

7 侯先榮;MORT技術(shù)簡(jiǎn)介[J];質(zhì)量與可靠性;1994年05期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 徐田坤;城市軌道交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估理論與方法研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2012年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前7條

1 黃遠(yuǎn)鐘;地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)過(guò)程安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控技術(shù)研究[D];大連交通大學(xué);2015年

2 張海云;城市軌道交通安全評(píng)價(jià)與對(duì)策研究[D];蘭州交通大學(xué);2013年

3 趙永春;基于可拓學(xué)的地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全評(píng)價(jià)研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2012年

4 李曼;城市軌道交通運(yùn)營(yíng)安全綜合評(píng)估模型研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2012年

5 李世偉;城市軌道交通運(yùn)營(yíng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)[D];西南交通大學(xué);2012年

6 馬開(kāi)明;地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)安全的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與管理[D];湖南大學(xué);2010年

7 賀陽(yáng);北京地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)的安全評(píng)價(jià)及其信號(hào)系統(tǒng)評(píng)定分析[D];北京化工大學(xué);2006年

，

本文編號(hào)：1564322