本文關鍵詞：中國經濟發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤態(tài)勢評價與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中國經濟發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤態(tài)勢評價與展望

EVALUATION AND PROSPECT ON THE DECOUPLING TREND OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND WATER ENVIRONMENT PRESSURE IN CHINA

[1] [2]

WU Dan, WANG Ya-hua （School of Public Policy Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China）

清華大學公共管理學院,北京100084}

文章摘要：在對經濟發(fā)展的水環(huán)境壓力概念進行合理界定基礎上，建立經濟發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力的脫鉤指標體系。通過國內外相關文獻研究與數(shù)據收集，，構建了中國經濟發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力的脫鉤潛力評價與時態(tài)分析模型，評價1986～2010年水利發(fā)展不同階段中國經濟總量增長與廢水排放的脫鉤潛力與脫鉤時態(tài)、以及經濟總量增長與工業(yè)廢水化學需氧量的脫鉤時態(tài)。在此基礎上，根據水環(huán)境庫茨涅茨曲線變化趨勢，對我國廢水排放總量的自然發(fā)展趨勢進行預測，并根據國家發(fā)展規(guī)劃對廢水排放總量預測結果進行修正。同時，結合國家發(fā)展規(guī)劃和環(huán)境保護規(guī)劃，對水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤進行展望。結果表明，我國經濟發(fā)展與廢水排放總量總體處于弱脫鉤發(fā)展態(tài)勢、與工業(yè)廢水化學需氧量排放總量總體處于強脫鉤發(fā)展態(tài)勢。預計2020年左右，我國經濟發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力有望保持絕對脫鉤的發(fā)展態(tài)勢，水環(huán)境得到徹底改善與凈化。

Abstr：According to the literature research and data collection, the evaluation model of the decoupling potentiality is given, to analyze the decoupling trend of economic development and water environment pressure of water conservancy stages during 1986--2010, based on the IPAT model and elastic analysis method. The results show that the decoupling trend of economic development and wastewater total amount was weak generally, which was weak in the Seventh Five Year Plan period and Eight Five Year Plan period. Although the decoupling trend of economic development and wastewater total amount was weak in the Nine Five Year Plan period, the decoupling trend was not obvious. The wastewater discharge amount was further increased in the Ten Five Year Plan period and Eleven Five Year Plan period. It means that the wastewater discharge amount was not controlled strictly, and kept in the sustainable growth. The decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater experienced the process of ＂strong decoupling-weak decoupling-strong decoupling＂. The decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong in the Seventh Five Year Plan period. Although the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was weak in the Eight Five Year Plan period, the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong in the Nine Five Year Plan period, Ten Five Year Plan period and Eleven Five Year Plan period. Generally,the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong, accorded with the situation of industrial modernization at present. In the process of economic development, the COD of industrial w

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:economic growth water environment pressure decoupling evaluation forecast

課題項目：國家自然科學基金項目（70973064）;中國博士后科學基金項目（2012M510035）;教育部人文社會科學研究青年基金項目（13YJCZH195）

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關鍵詞：中國經濟發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤態(tài)勢評價與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。