四川省人口遷移流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展問題研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-22 11:21
【摘要】：改革開放以后,東部沿海地區(qū)憑借地緣和政策優(yōu)勢率先發(fā)展起來,吸引了大量來自中西部經(jīng)濟(jì)落后地區(qū)的勞動(dòng)力。然而近年來,隨著“西部大開發(fā)”和“中部崛起”戰(zhàn)略的進(jìn)一步實(shí)施,受基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)等投資拉動(dòng)政策的鼓勵(lì),中西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步發(fā)展、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)、與東部地區(qū)的差距縮小,跨省外出的農(nóng)民工比重下降,許多農(nóng)民工開始從東部向中西部地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移,出現(xiàn)了一股“農(nóng)民工逆流”,我國長期以來“孔雀東南飛”的格局正在發(fā)生改變。 四川省作為人口大省、勞動(dòng)力輸出大省,一直存在大規(guī)模的人口遷移流動(dòng)現(xiàn)象,早期,由于與東部省份存在較大經(jīng)濟(jì)差距,大量勞動(dòng)力流出四川,四川省一直處于人口凈遷出的狀態(tài)；2000年“西部大開發(fā)”戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施后,西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長逐年提高,人口遷移狀態(tài)也從多年的凈遷出轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閮暨w入四川擁有大量且復(fù)雜的流動(dòng)人口,跨省遷移流動(dòng)人口減少的同時(shí),省內(nèi)不同市(州)間人口的遷移流動(dòng)也愈發(fā)頻繁,這也與不同市(州)間社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不平衡性有關(guān)。人口遷移流動(dòng)的本質(zhì)是勞動(dòng)力的流動(dòng),而勞動(dòng)力是地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不可或缺的要素,因此人口的遷移流動(dòng)與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在一定關(guān)聯(lián)。本文將研究的空間范圍鎖定在四川省,采用規(guī)范研究與實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合的方法,在計(jì)量和統(tǒng)計(jì)模型的支持下,從重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素——-遷移勞動(dòng)力的角度探討人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系,并給出相應(yīng)建議。 本文首先介紹了選題的背景和意義,對國內(nèi)外人口遷移理論和人口遷移研究的成果進(jìn)行了回顧和總結(jié),說明了論文的研究思路,并在前人人口遷移研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,對人口遷移的概念作了相應(yīng)的界定,以此作為展開論文研究的理論起點(diǎn)。本文的第二部分從四川省人口遷移流動(dòng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)際情況著手,分析了四川省近20年來人口遷移與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的態(tài)勢,利用第六次人口普查資料,詳細(xì)描述了四川省流動(dòng)人口的現(xiàn)狀和特點(diǎn),并比較分析了2010年省內(nèi)各市(州)的流動(dòng)人口狀況,還對人口遷移流動(dòng)對社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響作用進(jìn)行了分析闡述。本文第三部分理論結(jié)合實(shí)際,從宏觀和微觀兩個(gè)角度分析了影響四川人口遷移流動(dòng)的因素。第四部分利用四川省內(nèi)各市(州)2010年的流動(dòng)人口及相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)因素的截面數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行多元回歸分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素能較好地解釋省內(nèi)流入人口,而對省內(nèi)流出人口與凈流入人口的解釋力不強(qiáng),其中第三產(chǎn)業(yè)地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值和固定資產(chǎn)投資代表的地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)整體情況對省內(nèi)流入人口的影響最為顯著,構(gòu)成最終多元回歸模型中的解釋變量,而諸如醫(yī)療資源、教育資源、文化娛樂資源等其他社會(huì)資源因素,由于與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值之間存在多重共線性而被剔除,此外,各市(州)職工平均貨幣工資(或城市家庭人均可支配收入或農(nóng)村家庭人均純收入)與省內(nèi)流動(dòng)人口相關(guān)性不顯著；利用省會(huì)成都市1991-2010年的戶籍遷移人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)成都市的戶籍人口遷移情況與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在長期的均衡關(guān)系,二者之間在長期存在相互影響關(guān)系。在以上研究的基礎(chǔ)上,論文給出四川人口遷移與經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的政策建議。 本文通過對四川人口遷移流動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀、原因及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系的研究,力爭在研究視角、研究方法、選題思路等方面實(shí)現(xiàn)一定的可能創(chuàng)新價(jià)值,有助于四川政府制定相應(yīng)的人口政策、引導(dǎo)人口合理有序遷移流動(dòng),并為其他一些地區(qū)提供可能的借鑒。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, the eastern coastal area, with the advantage of the geopolitical and policy advantages, has taken the lead in the development of the labor force from the backward areas of the central and western regions. In recent years, however, with the further implementation of the "the development of the western region" and "the rise of the middle part" strategy and the encouragement of investment-driven policies such as infrastructure construction, the economy of the central and western regions is further developed, the industrial structure upgrading is further advanced, and the gap with the eastern region is reduced, The proportion of migrant workers from the provinces of the province has dropped, and many of the migrant workers began to move from the east to the central and western regions, and a "counter-current" of the migrant workers appeared, and the pattern of "peacock's south-east" in China has changed. Sichuan Province, as the largest province of the population and the large labor output, has been a large-scale population transfer phenomenon. In the early days, due to the large economic gap with the eastern provinces, a large amount of labor force flows out of Sichuan and Sichuan Province has been in the shape of the net emigration of the population. After the "Great Development of the West" in 2000, the economic growth of the western region has increased year by year, and the migration status of the population has changed from the net out of many years to a net migration to Sichuan, which has a large and complex floating population, and the same with the reduction of the floating population in the trans-province At the time of, the migration and flow of the population in different cities (states) in the province are also becoming more frequent, which is also the imbalance between the social and economic development of different cities (states). The essence of the migration of the population is the flow of the labor force, and the labor force is an essential element of the regional economic growth, so there is a certain relation between the migration flow of the population and the economic growth of the region In this paper, the spatial range of the study is locked in Sichuan Province, and the method of combining the normative research and the empirical study is adopted. The relationship between population and economic development is discussed from the point of view of the important economic factors _-the migration of the labor force with the support of the measurement and statistical model, and the corresponding construction is given. In this paper, the background and significance of the topic selection are introduced in this paper, and the results of the migration and migration of the population at home and abroad are reviewed and summarized, the research ideas of the paper are described, and the concept of the migration of the population is made on the basis of the research results of the previous population migration. The definition of this paper is the basis of the research of the paper. The second part of this paper starts with the actual situation of population migration and economic development in Sichuan Province, and analyses the situation of population migration and economic development in recent 20 years in Sichuan Province. The sixth census data is used to describe the present situation of the floating population in Sichuan Province. And the influence of the population migration flow on the social economy is also analyzed. The third part of this paper analyses the influence of the migration of the population in Sichuan from two aspects: macro and micro. The fourth part uses the cross-section data of the floating population and related economic and social factors in the city (state) in the province of Sichuan Province for multiple regression analysis, and finds that the socio-economic factors can well explain the inflow of the population in the province, and the explanation of the population and the net inflow of the population in the province The force is not strong, in which the overall situation of the regional economy of the tertiary industry and the investment of fixed assets has the most significant effect on the inflow of the population in the province, which constitutes the explanatory variable in the final multiple regression model, such as medical resources and education. The factors of other social resources, such as resources, cultural and entertainment resources, are excluded due to the multiple co-linear relationship with the product of the third industry In addition, the average monetary wage in each city (state) (or the per capita disposable income of the urban family or per capita net income of the rural households) is not related to the floating population in the province, and the population and economic growth data of the registered household in Chengdu, the provincial capital,1991-2010 The whole test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the migration of the registered population of Chengdu and the development of the regional economy. On the basis of the above research, the paper gives the administration of population migration and economic development in Sichuan. By studying the present situation, the reason of the migration of the population in Sichuan and its relationship with the economic development, this paper aims to realize some possible innovative value in the aspects of the research angle, the research method, the thought of the subject, and help the government of Sichuan to develop the corresponding research. Population policy to guide the rational and orderly migration of the population and to provide other areas
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;C924.2
本文編號(hào)：2504532
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, the eastern coastal area, with the advantage of the geopolitical and policy advantages, has taken the lead in the development of the labor force from the backward areas of the central and western regions. In recent years, however, with the further implementation of the "the development of the western region" and "the rise of the middle part" strategy and the encouragement of investment-driven policies such as infrastructure construction, the economy of the central and western regions is further developed, the industrial structure upgrading is further advanced, and the gap with the eastern region is reduced, The proportion of migrant workers from the provinces of the province has dropped, and many of the migrant workers began to move from the east to the central and western regions, and a "counter-current" of the migrant workers appeared, and the pattern of "peacock's south-east" in China has changed. Sichuan Province, as the largest province of the population and the large labor output, has been a large-scale population transfer phenomenon. In the early days, due to the large economic gap with the eastern provinces, a large amount of labor force flows out of Sichuan and Sichuan Province has been in the shape of the net emigration of the population. After the "Great Development of the West" in 2000, the economic growth of the western region has increased year by year, and the migration status of the population has changed from the net out of many years to a net migration to Sichuan, which has a large and complex floating population, and the same with the reduction of the floating population in the trans-province At the time of, the migration and flow of the population in different cities (states) in the province are also becoming more frequent, which is also the imbalance between the social and economic development of different cities (states). The essence of the migration of the population is the flow of the labor force, and the labor force is an essential element of the regional economic growth, so there is a certain relation between the migration flow of the population and the economic growth of the region In this paper, the spatial range of the study is locked in Sichuan Province, and the method of combining the normative research and the empirical study is adopted. The relationship between population and economic development is discussed from the point of view of the important economic factors _-the migration of the labor force with the support of the measurement and statistical model, and the corresponding construction is given. In this paper, the background and significance of the topic selection are introduced in this paper, and the results of the migration and migration of the population at home and abroad are reviewed and summarized, the research ideas of the paper are described, and the concept of the migration of the population is made on the basis of the research results of the previous population migration. The definition of this paper is the basis of the research of the paper. The second part of this paper starts with the actual situation of population migration and economic development in Sichuan Province, and analyses the situation of population migration and economic development in recent 20 years in Sichuan Province. The sixth census data is used to describe the present situation of the floating population in Sichuan Province. And the influence of the population migration flow on the social economy is also analyzed. The third part of this paper analyses the influence of the migration of the population in Sichuan from two aspects: macro and micro. The fourth part uses the cross-section data of the floating population and related economic and social factors in the city (state) in the province of Sichuan Province for multiple regression analysis, and finds that the socio-economic factors can well explain the inflow of the population in the province, and the explanation of the population and the net inflow of the population in the province The force is not strong, in which the overall situation of the regional economy of the tertiary industry and the investment of fixed assets has the most significant effect on the inflow of the population in the province, which constitutes the explanatory variable in the final multiple regression model, such as medical resources and education. The factors of other social resources, such as resources, cultural and entertainment resources, are excluded due to the multiple co-linear relationship with the product of the third industry In addition, the average monetary wage in each city (state) (or the per capita disposable income of the urban family or per capita net income of the rural households) is not related to the floating population in the province, and the population and economic growth data of the registered household in Chengdu, the provincial capital,1991-2010 The whole test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the migration of the registered population of Chengdu and the development of the regional economy. On the basis of the above research, the paper gives the administration of population migration and economic development in Sichuan. By studying the present situation, the reason of the migration of the population in Sichuan and its relationship with the economic development, this paper aims to realize some possible innovative value in the aspects of the research angle, the research method, the thought of the subject, and help the government of Sichuan to develop the corresponding research. Population policy to guide the rational and orderly migration of the population and to provide other areas
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;C924.2
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 張志偉;胡石清;;我國人口流動(dòng)的現(xiàn)狀及影響因素分析[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2005年06期
2 陳天惠;劉盛和;;我國人口流動(dòng)研究綜述[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2009年30期
3 朱傳耿,顧朝林,馬榮華,甄峰,張偉;中國流動(dòng)人口的影響要素與空間分布[J];地理學(xué)報(bào);2001年05期
4 李玲;人口遷移對90年代珠江三角洲人口發(fā)展的影響[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)地理;2002年05期
5 張善余;第四次人口普查省際遷移數(shù)據(jù)分析[J];人口與經(jīng)濟(jì);1992年03期
6 王德,葉暉;1990年以后的中國人口遷移研究綜述[J];人口學(xué)刊;2004年01期
7 于瀟;;建國以來東北地區(qū)人口遷移與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展分析[J];人口學(xué)刊;2006年03期
8 王化波;C. Cindy Fan;;省際間人口遷移流動(dòng)及原因探析[J];人口學(xué)刊;2009年05期
9 王桂新;陳冠春;;中國人口變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[J];人口學(xué)刊;2010年03期
10 杜小敏;陳建寶;;人口遷移與流動(dòng)對我國各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的實(shí)證分析[J];人口研究;2010年03期
，本文編號(hào)：2504532
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/jingjilunwen/zhongguojingjilunwen/2504532.html
最近更新
教材專著
