【摘要】：面對(duì)資源約束趨緊、環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)退化的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)。能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境三個(gè)系統(tǒng)的交互作用和協(xié)調(diào)推動(dòng)是中國(guó)走可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路所必須的是現(xiàn)實(shí)準(zhǔn)備和前進(jìn)保障。因此,基于中國(guó)的基本國(guó)情,我們必須將經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)同能源綠色發(fā)展和環(huán)境建設(shè)有機(jī)結(jié)合,通過三個(gè)系統(tǒng)的相互協(xié)調(diào),進(jìn)而提升全國(guó)的整體效應(yīng)。 本文以3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展理念為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用指標(biāo)體系評(píng)價(jià)法,建立了一套較全面的3E系統(tǒng)綜合發(fā)展水平的評(píng)價(jià)體系,采用主成分分析法對(duì)1996-2010年能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境各子系統(tǒng)和3E系統(tǒng)的綜合發(fā)展進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),與此同時(shí),運(yùn)用探索性數(shù)據(jù)分析法和馬爾科夫鏈法探索我國(guó)區(qū)域3E系統(tǒng)區(qū)域的空間分布特征及演變規(guī)律,最后探討了空間差異對(duì)區(qū)域3E系統(tǒng)發(fā)展變化的影響,并根據(jù)我國(guó)區(qū)域3E系統(tǒng)空間分布情況提出有針對(duì)性的政策建議。 本文結(jié)論如下：(1)近15年來,我國(guó)能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展水平逐步提高,但是區(qū)域分布差異明顯。南部沿海、東部沿海、西南地區(qū)3E系統(tǒng)發(fā)展水平較高,然而北部沿海和東北地區(qū)發(fā)展水平較低,以上兩組數(shù)據(jù)差異較大,但組間差異不明顯。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平較高的沿海地區(qū),在一定程度上忽視了環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。從各子系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r來看,我國(guó)能源系統(tǒng)發(fā)展水平圍繞均值上下波動(dòng),趨于平穩(wěn)。同時(shí),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)和環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展水平整體呈上升趨勢(shì)。(2)中國(guó)區(qū)域3E系統(tǒng)綜合發(fā)展水平的變化在1996-2010年存在一定程度的趨同現(xiàn)象。低水平區(qū)域趨同現(xiàn)象較顯著,而中低和中高水平區(qū)域趨同現(xiàn)象一般,與此同時(shí),這兩個(gè)區(qū)域類型正在進(jìn)行升級(jí)發(fā)展。(3)中國(guó)區(qū)域3E系統(tǒng)發(fā)展水平的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)在一定程度上受鄰域類型影響,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看,觀測(cè)區(qū)域鄰域類型為中高水平時(shí),區(qū)域升級(jí)的發(fā)展?jié)摿ψ畲蟆?4)東部沿海受北部地區(qū)近年來大幅下降影響出現(xiàn)小幅下滑;南部沿海與東部地區(qū)趨同現(xiàn)象顯著;北部沿海和東北地區(qū)發(fā)展遇到瓶頸,并且作為低水平區(qū)域趨同現(xiàn)象顯著,受鄰域影響較弱：黃河中游升級(jí)發(fā)展為高水平區(qū)域的潛力極大；長(zhǎng)江中游受黃河中游和西南地區(qū)的積極影響,正在進(jìn)行升級(jí)發(fā)展；西北地區(qū)和西南地區(qū)分別受黃河中游和南部地區(qū)的積極影響有望升級(jí)到更高水平區(qū)域。
[Abstract]:In the face of tight resource constraints, serious environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation, severe situation. The interaction and coordinated promotion of energy, economy and environment are the realistic preparation and guarantee for China to take the path of sustainable development. Therefore, based on China's basic national conditions, we must organically combine economic growth with energy green development and environmental construction, and promote the overall effect of the whole country through the coordination of the three systems. Based on the idea of coordinated development of 3e system, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation system of comprehensive development level of 3e system by using the evaluation method of index system, and uses the principal component analysis method to analyze the energy resources from 1996 to 2010. The comprehensive development of economic and environmental subsystems and 3e system is evaluated. At the same time, exploratory data analysis and Markov chain method are used to explore the spatial distribution characteristics and evolution rules of regional 3E system in China. Finally, the paper discusses the influence of spatial difference on the development and change of regional 3e system, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions according to the spatial distribution of regional 3e system in China. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) in the last 15 years, the development level of energy, economy and environment system in China has been gradually improved, but the regional distribution is obviously different. The development level of 3e system in the south coast, east coast and southwest area is higher, but the development level in the north coast and the northeast area is lower. The difference between the above two groups is great, but there is no significant difference between the two groups. The high level of economic development in coastal areas, to a certain extent, ignored the coordinated development of the environment. According to the development of each subsystem, the development level of China's energy system fluctuates around the average value and tends to be stable. At the same time, the overall development level of China's economic system and environmental system shows an upward trend. (2) the change of the comprehensive development level of the 3e system in the region of China has a certain degree of convergence in 1996-2010. Low-level regional convergence is more significant, while low-and middle-and high-level regional convergence is common, and at the same time, The two regional types are being upgraded and developed. (3) the long-term development trend of the 3e system in China is influenced to some extent by the neighborhood type. In the long run, when the observed area neighborhood type is medium-high level, the long-term development trend of the 3e system in China is affected by the neighborhood type to a certain extent. The development potential of regional upgrading is the greatest. (4) the eastern coastal area has a slight decline in recent years affected by the large decline in the northern region; The convergence of the southern coastal area and the eastern part of the Yellow River is obvious, and the development of the northern coastal and northeast regions has encountered bottlenecks, and as a low-level region, the convergence phenomenon is remarkable, which is less affected by the neighborhood: the middle reaches of the Yellow River has a great potential to upgrade to a high-level region; Under the positive influence of the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the southwest of the Yangtze River, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is upgrading and developing, and the positive effects of the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the south of the southwest of the Yangtze River are expected to upgrade to a higher level, respectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F124.5

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