【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段，重慶市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀還是主要依靠投資來拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長及社會(huì)的進(jìn)步，如何通過有限的投資，獲得較大的社會(huì)效益，即需要了解投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的直接影響還需要清醒認(rèn)識(shí)投資通過部門間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系進(jìn)行傳導(dǎo)后對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的綜合影響。投入產(chǎn)出分析方法為分析部門間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系提供了思路。利用投入產(chǎn)出模型、從產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)視角研究不同部門相同額度的投資對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的差異化影響，從而根據(jù)分析結(jié)論提出具有針對(duì)性的策略，優(yōu)化投資的主要方向和結(jié)構(gòu)。因此分部門研究投資乘數(shù)效應(yīng)具有十分重要的實(shí)踐意義和理論價(jià)值。 本文研究的主要內(nèi)容有：首先，運(yùn)用定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法，從總量、來源、投資結(jié)構(gòu)等多個(gè)方面對(duì)重慶市固定資產(chǎn)投資現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析；其次，以重慶市2010年投入產(chǎn)出表數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，利用投入產(chǎn)出局部閉模型測(cè)算了重慶市各部門完全總產(chǎn)出乘數(shù)與完全增加值乘數(shù)，并深入產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)內(nèi)部對(duì)重點(diǎn)部門的完全總產(chǎn)出乘數(shù)和增加值乘數(shù)的在各部門的分布情況進(jìn)行分析，測(cè)算結(jié)果顯示顯示重慶市各部門投資乘數(shù)較大且各部門之間乘數(shù)的數(shù)值大小差距明顯，所以相同投資額投資于不同的部門對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是不同的；再次，利用投產(chǎn)出模型測(cè)算了重慶市各部門的簡(jiǎn)單總產(chǎn)出乘數(shù)與增加值乘數(shù)，并將完全乘數(shù)與簡(jiǎn)單乘數(shù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析，量化居民消費(fèi)擴(kuò)張效應(yīng)對(duì)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的影響，結(jié)果顯示重慶市居民消費(fèi)擴(kuò)張效應(yīng)對(duì)各部門均具有較顯著的影響并且對(duì)不同的部門的影響水平具有明顯的差別，，從平均水平來看，消費(fèi)擴(kuò)張效應(yīng)對(duì)總產(chǎn)出乘數(shù)約有35.15%的貢獻(xiàn)，對(duì)增加值乘數(shù)約有38.10%的貢獻(xiàn)；最后，根據(jù)研究的結(jié)論，提出相關(guān)的政策建議并總結(jié)本文研究的不足并指出以后的研究方向。 本文研究的主要特色在于：（1）利用投入產(chǎn)出局部閉模型，從產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)的視角來研究重慶市各部門的投資乘數(shù)。由局部閉模型所得投資乘數(shù)，突破了凱恩斯乘數(shù)中各部門邊際消費(fèi)傾向相同的假設(shè)并導(dǎo)致各部門投資乘數(shù)相同，切實(shí)反映了不同部門對(duì)應(yīng)不同的投資乘數(shù)，這無疑更符合現(xiàn)實(shí)情況并且對(duì)政府制定投資政策、優(yōu)化投資配置、改善投資效率具有參考價(jià)值。（2）定量測(cè)算了消費(fèi)擴(kuò)張效應(yīng)對(duì)各部門總產(chǎn)出乘數(shù)與增加乘數(shù)的影響。在前人的研究中，無論是利用凱恩斯投資乘數(shù)進(jìn)行分析還是利用投入產(chǎn)出表對(duì)投資乘數(shù)進(jìn)行測(cè)算，都缺少對(duì)這方面的研究分析。
[Abstract]:At this stage, the current situation of Chongqing's economic development mainly depends on investment to promote economic growth and social progress, how to obtain greater social benefits through limited investment, That is to say, it is necessary to understand the direct effect of investment on economic aggregate and the comprehensive influence of investment on national economy after it is transmitted through the interdepartmental relationship. The method of input-output analysis provides a train of thought for analyzing the relationship between departments. Based on the input-output model, this paper studies the different effects of the same amount of investment in different sectors on national economy from the perspective of industrial correlation, so as to put forward targeted strategies and optimize the main direction and structure of investment according to the conclusion of the analysis. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to study the multiplier effect of investment in different sectors. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, using the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper analyzes the present situation of fixed assets investment in Chongqing from the aspects of total quantity, source, investment structure and so on. Secondly, based on the input-output table data of Chongqing in 2010, the complete total output multiplier and the complete value-added multiplier of each department in Chongqing are calculated by using the input-output partial closed model. And in-depth analysis of the distribution of complete total output multipliers and value added multipliers of key sectors in various sectors within the industrial structure. The calculated results show that the investment multiplier of each sector in Chongqing is large and the difference of multiplier value between different sectors is obvious, so the same amount of investment invested in different sectors has different impact on the economy; Thirdly, the paper calculates the simple total output multiplier and the added value multiplier of each department of Chongqing by using the put-into-production model, and compares the complete multiplier with the simple multiplier to quantify the impact of residents' consumption expansion effect on the multiplier effect. The results show that the effect of residents' consumption expansion in Chongqing has a significant impact on all sectors and has a significant difference in the level of impact on different sectors, from the average level of view, The consumption expansion effect contributes about 35.15% to the total output multiplier and 38.10% to the value-added multiplier. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward, and the shortcomings of this study are summarized, and the future research direction is pointed out. The main characteristics of this paper are as follows: (1) using the input-output locally closed model to study the investment multipliers in Chongqing from the perspective of industrial correlation. The investment multiplier obtained from the locally closed model breaks through the assumption that the marginal propensity to consume in all sectors in the Keynesian multiplier is the same and leads to the same investment multiplier in all sectors, which reflects the different investment multipliers corresponding to different sectors. This is undoubtedly more in line with the reality and has reference value for the government to formulate investment policies, optimize investment allocation, and improve investment efficiency. (2) quantitatively calculate the impact of consumption expansion effect on the total output multiplier and increase multiplier of each sector. In previous studies, neither Keynesian investment multiplier nor input-output table was used to measure the investment multiplier, there is a lack of research and analysis in this respect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F224

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