【摘要】：現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界普遍認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間存在著密切的關(guān)系，一定條件下，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)，而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)又會(huì)反過(guò)來(lái)進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)。關(guān)于二者的關(guān)系，國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者做了大量的理論和實(shí)證研究。其中，實(shí)證研究在理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)模型討論變量之間的相互關(guān)系，使論證結(jié)果更能令人信服。 自1978年改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，河北省堅(jiān)持以經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)為中心，經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟(jì)總量不斷增加，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也經(jīng)歷了由“二、一、三”向“二、三、一”的轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)日趨合理。但該省經(jīng)濟(jì)在較長(zhǎng)時(shí)期的快速發(fā)展過(guò)程中也積累了許多問(wèn)題和矛盾，本文通過(guò)對(duì)河北省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)，就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，比較勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)偏離度的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，河北產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)層次較低，，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展落后，農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化程度較低，產(chǎn)業(yè)效益低下。第二產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重在達(dá)到50%以后并未呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)，而且產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部重工業(yè)化嚴(yán)重，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展緩慢等。正是由于河北省在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式粗放，資源依賴(lài)程度高，科技創(chuàng)新能力不足等因素導(dǎo)致了這些問(wèn)題的產(chǎn)生。 本文依據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)的理論，運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)的方法對(duì)1983-2011年河北省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的數(shù)據(jù)資料進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，分析結(jié)果表明河北省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在著一種長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系，第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)較大，而第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)相對(duì)較小。另外，格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果證明了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的雙向因果關(guān)系，即產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演進(jìn)推動(dòng)著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)又會(huì)促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和優(yōu)化。文章最后一部分則在上述理論和實(shí)證分析的基礎(chǔ)上提出了關(guān)于河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Modern economists generally believe that there is a close relationship between economic growth and industrial structure. Under certain conditions, the change of industrial structure is the basis of economic growth, and economic growth will in turn further promote the change of industrial structure. On the relationship between the two, domestic and foreign scholars have done a lot of theoretical and empirical research. On the basis of theoretical research, the empirical study uses the data model to discuss the relationship between variables, which makes the results more convincing. Since the reform and opening to the outside world in 1978, Hebei Province has insisted on taking economic construction as the center, the economy has developed at a rapid speed, the total economic volume has been continuously increased, and the industrial structure has also undergone a process of transformation from "two, one, three" to "two, three, one". The industrial structure is becoming more and more reasonable. However, the province's economy has accumulated many problems and contradictions in the long period of rapid development. Through the analysis of the output value structure, the employment structure, the comparative labor productivity and the deviation degree of the industrial structure of the three industries in Hebei Province, this paper finds that, Hebei's industrial structure is low, the primary industry is backward, the agricultural modernization is low, and the industrial efficiency is low. The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry has not shown a downward trend after reaching 50%, and the heavy industry inside the industry is serious, and the tertiary industry is developing slowly and so on. It is due to the extensive mode of economic development in Hebei Province, the high degree of resource dependence, the lack of scientific and technological innovation ability and other factors that lead to these problems. Based on the theory of industrial structure and economic growth, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the data of three industries in Hebei Province from 1983 to 2011 by using the methods of cointegration test and Granger causality test. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth in Hebei Province, and the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth is greater, while the primary industry and the tertiary industry are relatively small. In addition, the result of Granger causality test proves the two-way causality between industrial structure and economic growth, that is, the evolution of industrial structure promotes economic growth, and economic growth will promote the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure. In the last part of the article, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on the adjustment of industrial structure in Hebei province on the basis of the above theoretical and empirical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F279.2;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2427150