【摘要】：隨著碳排放的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)及其對(duì)全球生態(tài)環(huán)境造成的巨大威脅，如何降低碳排放已成為世界各國(guó)關(guān)心的焦點(diǎn)所在。本文采用不同方法探討河北省碳排放量與主要影響因素間的關(guān)系，運(yùn)用指數(shù)分解法分析河北省不同年度各產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值及單位產(chǎn)值碳排放量變動(dòng)對(duì)碳排放總量的影響，采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)方法綜合評(píng)價(jià)工業(yè)內(nèi)各行業(yè)的碳排放強(qiáng)度，找出河北省碳排放重點(diǎn)監(jiān)控的地區(qū)，根據(jù)研究結(jié)果提出河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與優(yōu)化策略。 首先，本文重點(diǎn)闡述河北省人口與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，根據(jù)河北省能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)及能源消耗總量，計(jì)算出各種能源消耗量；根據(jù)各種能源消費(fèi)總量及各種能源的碳排放系數(shù)，計(jì)算各種能源的碳排放量及總的碳排放量。采用簡(jiǎn)單相關(guān)分析法、偏相關(guān)分析法及神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法，探討碳排放量與主要影響因素間的關(guān)系。建立碳排放量主要影響因素與時(shí)間的回歸方程，根據(jù)碳排放量主要影響因素的預(yù)測(cè)值對(duì)碳排放量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。 其次，運(yùn)用指數(shù)分解法探討河北省不同年度各產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值及單位產(chǎn)值碳排放量變動(dòng)對(duì)碳排放總量的影響，分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)及不同產(chǎn)業(yè)單位產(chǎn)值碳排放量變動(dòng)對(duì)總的單位產(chǎn)值碳排放量的影響；為了反映不同產(chǎn)業(yè)在碳排放增量及增速所起到作用不同，創(chuàng)新地計(jì)算不同產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放增量分擔(dān)率和增速拉動(dòng)率。 再次，在規(guī)模以上工業(yè)內(nèi)部，為了甄選需要調(diào)整和發(fā)展的行業(yè)，選擇單位職工人數(shù)碳排放量、單位總產(chǎn)值碳排放量和單位利潤(rùn)碳排放量三個(gè)碳排放強(qiáng)度指標(biāo)，采用熵值法確定三個(gè)指標(biāo)權(quán)重。采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)方法計(jì)算工業(yè)內(nèi)各行業(yè)的碳排放強(qiáng)度平均關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)，以此作為工業(yè)內(nèi)各行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與優(yōu)化依據(jù)。根據(jù)綜合評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果，確定需要調(diào)整的行業(yè)和應(yīng)大力發(fā)展行業(yè)，，為工業(yè)內(nèi)各行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整提供思路。同時(shí)從河北省碳排放量的地區(qū)分布角度，分析各地區(qū)碳排放總量和碳排放強(qiáng)度，找出河北省碳排放重點(diǎn)監(jiān)控的地區(qū)應(yīng)是唐山市、邯鄲市、張家口市和石家莊市。 最后，通過(guò)分析三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的碳排放總量及三次產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度，確定積極發(fā)展第一產(chǎn)業(yè)，盡量壓縮第二產(chǎn)業(yè)，大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的三次產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)化策略。在第一產(chǎn)業(yè)方面，提出河北省應(yīng)加快發(fā)展區(qū)域特色農(nóng)業(yè)、綠色農(nóng)業(yè)和創(chuàng)匯農(nóng)業(yè)，努力提高專業(yè)化生產(chǎn)程度。同時(shí)大力林業(yè),提高森林碳匯的儲(chǔ)藏量。河北省第二產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化應(yīng)重點(diǎn)對(duì)7個(gè)行業(yè)進(jìn)行，在考慮其他因素的同時(shí)進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整。河北省在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化方面，從低碳角度應(yīng)積極發(fā)展文化產(chǎn)業(yè)，全力發(fā)展旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)。同時(shí)提出建立碳交易市場(chǎng)，努力提高礦產(chǎn)資源回收率，建設(shè)循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)工業(yè)園區(qū)的機(jī)制策略。
[Abstract]:With the continuous increase of carbon emissions and the great threat to the global ecological environment, how to reduce carbon emissions has become the focus of attention in the world. This paper discusses the relationship between carbon emissions and main influencing factors in Hebei Province by using different methods, and analyzes the effects of carbon emissions change on the total carbon emissions in different years of Hebei Province by using the exponential decomposition method, and the change of carbon emissions per unit output value and output value in different years in Hebei Province. The grey correlation method is used to evaluate the carbon emission intensity of various industries in the industry, and the key monitoring areas of carbon emissions in Hebei Province are found out. Based on the research results, the adjustment and optimization strategies of industrial structure in Hebei Province are put forward. First of all, this paper focuses on the population and socio-economic development of Hebei Province, according to the structure of energy consumption in Hebei Province and the total amount of energy consumption, calculate all kinds of energy consumption; According to the total amount of energy consumption and the carbon emission coefficient of all kinds of energy, the carbon emissions and the total carbon emissions of all kinds of energy sources are calculated. Simple correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and neural network analysis were used to study the relationship between carbon emissions and main influencing factors. The regression equation between the main influencing factors and the time of carbon emissions was established, and the carbon emissions were predicted according to the predicted values of the main influencing factors of carbon emissions. Secondly, using the method of exponential decomposition, the paper discusses the influence of the change of carbon emissions per industry and unit output value on the total amount of carbon emissions in Hebei Province in different years. The influence of the change of industrial structure and carbon emissions per unit output value of different industries on the total carbon emissions per unit output value is analyzed. In order to reflect the different effects of different industries on the increase and growth of carbon emissions, the incremental contribution rate and the growth rate of carbon emissions of different industries are calculated innovatively. Thirdly, in order to select the industries that need to be adjusted and developed, in order to select the industries above the scale, we choose three carbon emission intensity indicators: the number of carbon emissions per employee, the carbon emissions per unit gross product and the carbon emissions per unit profit. The entropy method is used to determine the weight of three indexes. The grey correlation method is used to calculate the average correlation coefficient of carbon emission intensity in various industries, which can be used as the basis for the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure. According to the results of comprehensive evaluation, it is necessary to determine the industries that need to be adjusted and to develop the industries so as to provide ideas for the structural adjustment of various industries in the industry. At the same time, from the perspective of regional distribution of carbon emissions in Hebei Province, the total amount of carbon emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions in various regions are analyzed, and the key monitoring areas of carbon emissions in Hebei Province should be Tangshan City, Handan City, Zhangjiakou City and Shijiazhuang City. Finally, through the analysis of the total amount of carbon emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions of the third industry, the paper determines the strategy of actively developing the primary industry, reducing the secondary industry as much as possible, and vigorously developing the tertiary industry. In the aspect of primary industry, it is suggested that Hebei Province should speed up the development of regional characteristic agriculture, green agriculture and foreign exchange earning agriculture, and strive to improve the degree of specialized production. At the same time, vigorously forestry, improve forest carbon storage. The optimization of the secondary industry structure in Hebei Province should focus on the seven industries and adjust the industry while considering other factors. In the aspect of optimizing the tertiary industry structure, Hebei Province should actively develop cultural industry and tourism industry from the perspective of low carbon. At the same time, the mechanism strategy of establishing carbon trading market, improving the recovery rate of mineral resources and constructing circular economy industrial park is put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F205

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