【摘要】：自美國經(jīng)濟學家列昂剔夫創(chuàng)立投入產(chǎn)出表以來,投入產(chǎn)出分析方法、投入產(chǎn)出表及其相應的投入產(chǎn)出模型在全世界范圍內得到了廣泛的應用,且各國研究學者不斷對其進行豐富與完善。我們可以在現(xiàn)有的投入產(chǎn)出表的基礎上,用其對國民經(jīng)濟各部門以及各部門之間的相互聯(lián)系、相互依賴關系進行研究分析,得出各部門在國民經(jīng)濟中的影響力和地位的變化,對產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的制定者正確制定相應的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策提供較強的指導意義。 本文根據(jù)山東省2002年與2007年投入產(chǎn)出表,利用投入產(chǎn)出分析方法,對山東省29個產(chǎn)業(yè)部門之間進行產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)定量分析,為山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的升級與產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的制定提供參考。 在文章的第三部分,利用投入產(chǎn)出分析技術中的影響力系數(shù)、感應度系數(shù)分析了山東省29個產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的產(chǎn)業(yè)波及效應。研究結果表明,山東省農(nóng)業(yè)和傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)的比重均有所下降,其產(chǎn)業(yè)結構正在向高級技術產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)為主的新型產(chǎn)業(yè)結構轉變。在各部門對最終需求的變動分析中,利用生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)額及其系數(shù),分析各部門的生產(chǎn)對國民經(jīng)濟的生產(chǎn)誘導效應,我們可以看到,在山東省乃至全國,城市居民與農(nóng)村居民的消費仍存在一定的差距,但隨著我國經(jīng)濟的不斷發(fā)展,兩者的消費水平均有了不同程度的提高,對第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的消費需求與消費比重在不斷的加大。最終需求對國民經(jīng)濟的依賴度系數(shù)分析表明,山東省當前經(jīng)濟的增長對投資的依賴性較大,消費拉動所起的作用相對較導弱。國內消費需求的不足強化了經(jīng)濟增長對外的依賴。在文章的第四部門,利用SPSS軟件對29個產(chǎn)業(yè)部門經(jīng)濟力進行因子分析,根據(jù)16個指標對各部門的經(jīng)濟力進行打分,從而確定各部門在山東省國民經(jīng)濟的作用與地位。
[Abstract]:Since the creation of the input-output table by American economist Leon Tiff, input-output analysis methods, input-output tables and their corresponding input-output models have been widely used all over the world. And scholars from all over the world continue to enrich and improve it. On the basis of the existing input-output table, we can use it to study and analyze the interrelation and interdependence of the various sectors of the national economy and to obtain the changes in the influence and position of the various sectors in the national economy. It provides a strong guiding significance for the industrial policy makers to make the corresponding industrial policy correctly. Based on the input-output tables of Shandong Province in 2002 and 2007, this paper makes quantitative analysis of industrial association among 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province by using the input-output analysis method, which provides a reference for upgrading the industrial structure and making industrial policies in Shandong Province. In the third part of the paper, the influence coefficient and the inductance coefficient in the input-output analysis technology are used to analyze the industrial ripple effect of 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province. The results show that the proportion of agriculture and traditional industry in Shandong Province has decreased, and the industrial structure is changing to a new type of industrial structure, which is dominated by advanced technology industry and tertiary industry. In the analysis of the change of final demand in various departments, we can see that in Shandong Province and even in the whole country, we can analyze the effect of production inducement on the national economy by using the production evoked amount and its coefficient. There is still a certain gap between the consumption of urban residents and rural residents, but with the continuous development of our economy, the consumption level of both has been improved in varying degrees, and the consumption demand and consumption proportion of the tertiary industry are constantly increasing. The analysis of the dependence coefficient of the final demand on the national economy shows that the current economic growth of Shandong Province is more dependent on investment, and the effect of consumption pulling is relatively weak. The shortage of domestic consumption demand has strengthened the external dependence of economic growth. In the fourth part of the article, the factor analysis of economic power of 29 industrial departments is carried out by using SPSS software, and the economic power of each department is graded according to 16 indexes, so as to determine the role and status of each department in the national economy of Shandong Province.
【學位授予單位】：青島科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F223

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