發(fā)布時間：2018-12-10 16:13

【摘要】：近年來,房地產(chǎn)價格變動與居民消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系越來越受到學(xué)者和政府部門的關(guān)注,這種關(guān)注正是由于過去20多年來房地產(chǎn)市場對整個宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的巨大影響。目前我國正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時期,國民經(jīng)濟(jì)一直處于高速增長階段,然而居民消費(fèi)并沒有跟上經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的步伐。我國居民消費(fèi)需求乏力問題已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重制約著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,成為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中日益突出的問題。 房地產(chǎn)價格上升對居民消費(fèi)的影響主要可以分為兩個方面：財富效應(yīng)和擠出效應(yīng)。而我國房地產(chǎn)市場對消費(fèi)的作用究竟是財富效應(yīng)還是擠出效應(yīng)一直受到各方的關(guān)注,因此本文著重研究房地產(chǎn)價格對我國居民消費(fèi)的影響。本文利用2000-2010年的年度面板數(shù)據(jù)建立固定效應(yīng)模型估計房地產(chǎn)價格變動對居民消費(fèi)的影響,通過對24個大中城市的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實證研究,結(jié)果表明：首先,我國房地產(chǎn)市場存在財富效應(yīng),而這種財富效應(yīng)并不十分顯著,可以說是微弱的財富效應(yīng),同時,不同城市房地產(chǎn)價格變化對居民消費(fèi)的影響是不同的,而造成這一差異可能受多種因素影響,各個城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、地理位置、居民購買力以及居民消費(fèi)心理的不同,都會影響居民的消費(fèi)行為。其次,收入仍是影響居民消費(fèi)的首要因素。最后在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the relationship between real estate price changes and residents' consumption has attracted more and more attention from scholars and government departments. This concern is precisely due to the huge impact of the real estate market on the whole macro economy in the past 20 years or so. At present, our country is in the key period of economic transformation, the national economy has been in the stage of rapid growth, but residents' consumption has not kept up with the pace of economic growth. The problem of weak consumer demand in China has seriously restricted the sustained and healthy development of our economy, and has become an increasingly prominent problem in the economic development of our country. The impact of rising real estate prices on residents' consumption can be divided into two aspects: wealth effect and crowding out effect. However, whether the effect of real estate market on consumption is wealth effect or crowding-out effect has been concerned by all parties, so this paper focuses on the impact of real estate price on consumption of Chinese residents. This paper uses the annual panel data from 2000 to 2010 to establish a fixed effect model to estimate the impact of real estate price changes on residents' consumption. The empirical study on the data of 24 large and medium-sized cities shows that: first of all, There is a wealth effect in the real estate market of our country, but this kind of wealth effect is not very remarkable, can be said to be the weak wealth effect, at the same time, the influence of the change of the real estate price of different cities on the residents' consumption is different. The difference may be affected by many factors, such as the level of economic development, geographical location, purchasing power of residents and the consumption psychology of residents, all of which will affect the consumption behavior of residents. Next, income is still the primary factor that affects resident consumption. Finally, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward on this basis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126;F299.23

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本文編號：2370862